The Day in Superdelegates

The latest from the votes that really count from this point on (sorry, West Virginia):

Barack Obama with four new superdelegates today, Hillary Clinton with one. One of Obama's four, however, is Virginia DNC member Jennifer McClellan, who had previously endorsed Clinton. So today's net total: Obama 4, Clinton 0.

The other three for Obama: N.C. party chair Jerry Meek, N.C. DNC member Jeannette Council, and California DNC member Inola Henry.

Clinton's endorsement comes from N.C. Rep. Heath Shuler, who said previously he would endorse whichever candidate won his district on May 6. That was Clinton, by 13 points.

Your superdelegate total: Clinton 270.5, Obama 258.

Your overall delegate total (with about a dozen in N.C. and Indiana yet determined): Obama 1,840.5, Clinton 1687. (2,025 needed for victory.)

It's N.C. Primary night

1:15 a.m. - Deciding: In one night, with one convincing victory, Barack Obama took the psychology out of the Democratic nomination Tuesday and made it about numbers again.

His victory in N.C. and close finish in Indiana leaves him needing about 30 of the 217 remaining pledged delegates to get a majority. That total, along with a popular vote margin Tuesday of about 200,000, leaves Florida and Michigan closer to irrelevant in the race to the nomination.

The Hillary Clinton campaign is urging everyone – read: superdelegates – to not get caught up in the moment and rally behind Obama. Will the supers listen and let Clinton find some West Virginia momentum six days from now? Or will they decide that the time for such notions is over?

1:12 a.m. - Clinton wins: With 99 percent reporting, Clinton leads by 22,000 votes.

12:40 a.m. - A little closer: With 95 percent reporting, the Clinton lead is just under 16,000. Lake County, including Chicago suburb Gary, has 44 percent remaining. CNN's John King says the votes coming in thus far from Lake are mostly from the northern Obama-leaning part of the state.

12 a.m. - Clinton cancels morning appearances: MSNBC's Tim Russert reports that Clinton, who was scheduled to appear on the morning shows tomorrow, has canceled."

11:40 p.m. - Indiana mayor predicts possible upset: The Washington Post's Alec MacGillis is reporting that Gary (Ind.) Mayor Rudy Clay is saying that the outstanding vote in Lake County, which includes Gary, might be enough to give Obama a victory.

Says the Post:

"Let me tell you, when all the votes are counted, when Gary comes in, I think you're looking at something for the world to see," Clay, an Obama supporter, said in a telephone interview from Obama's Gary headquarters. "I don't know what the numbers are yet, but Gary has absolutely produced in large numbers for Obama here."

The race has tightened to 20,000 votes with 9 percent left to report.

11:10 p.m. - A somber fighter: A reserved Hillary Clinton told Indiana voters that she will never give up on them, but that she "will work for the nominee of the Democratic party, because we must win in November."

The speech, intended to celebrate an Indiana victory, was instead an acknowledgment that the night had turned momentum away from her.

She began the speech as a fighter - "Tonight, Hoosiers have said that you do want a president who stands strong for you" - offering the middle class/gas tax/foreclosure freeze message that has given her campaign voice. "I believe that Americans need a champion in their corner," she said.

Yet, she said: "We have to acknowledge what's at stake in this election." She reminded voters that it's the Democratic party that's good for them.

This was, however, not a concession. "I want to be president of all America..." she said.

Translation: Count those Florida and Michigan votes.

10:40 p.m. - In case you were wondering...: Hillary Clinton addresses Indiana: "Thanks to you, it's full speed to the White House."

10 p.m. - What's happening in Indiana: Obama may be ready to concede, but the networks are waiting on Lake County, a suburban Chicago county in northwest Indiana. Lake, a county heavy with African-American votes, has no results reported yet.

Clinton is up four points with less than 20 percent left to count. Lake, and the other outstanding counties, likely won't hand Obama a victory, according to vote counters. But no one is taking any chances. The wait has to be terribly deflating to the Clinton campaign.

(Update, 10:20 p.m.: CNN says Indiana might not be called until midnight. MSNBC reporting that some Lake County votes might not be counted until then.)

9: 40 p.m. - Olive branch, then some swings: Obama says he doesn't believe the party won't come together in November.

"Yes, there have been bruised feelings," he says. "Yes, each side wants their candidate to win."

But: "This primary season may not be over, but when it is, we have to remember who we are as Democrats."

He follows with the speech he's been trying to make for weeks - a criticism of George Bush's economic policies and the war on Iraq. He nods to criticism - and iffy voters - with a reminder of his own humble background, his wife's, and his love for America.

To finish, a reminder of the big message: "We can still choose this moment to finally come together."

And: "This time can be different than all the rest."

9:20 p.m. - The winner speaks: In Raleigh, Obama says: "There are those who were saying that North Carolina would be a game changer. Today, what North Carolina decided is the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, D.C.."

He also beats the networks and congratulates Clinton on an apparent victory in Indiana.

Back to N.C.: It is, he says, "a state where we will compete to win if I am the Democratic nominee."

9 p.m. - Obama to speak soon: So says McClatchy reporter Margaret Telev in Raleigh.

8:45 p.m - Early upset special - Nick Mackey?: Early voters, plus a few early returns, give Mackey a 57-43 percent lead over incumbent Drew Saunders in the N.C. House District 99 Democratic race.

8:30 p.m. - How Obama won N.C., by the numbers: The Observer's Mark Johnson gives the full report on the exit polls.

Mark writes: Exit polls project Sen. Barack Obama will carry North Carolina by 55 percent to 42 percent for Sen. Hillary Clinton, a larger spread than polls projected in the last week.

The exit polls, conducted by the major television news networks, showed Clinton handily winning white voters, the subject of considerable wooing by both of the Democratic presidential contenders. Clinton took 59 percent to 36 percent for Obama. Among black voters, Obama won 91 percent compared to 6 percent for Clinton.

Obama won all income groups.

Voters picked the economy as their top issue, 60 percent, with Iraq coming in a distant second at 22 percent and health care at third, 15 percent.

The ability to enact change was the top quality in a candidate for 50 percent of voters, while experience was second at 22 percent.

More voters saw Obama as honest and trustworthy, 70 percent to Clinton's 47 percent, and more voters also see Obama as ready to be commander-in-chief, 49 percent to 45 percent who said the same about Clinton. (The numbers can exceed 100 percent because voters were asked about each candidate individually not in comparison.)

Among Clinton supporters, 45 percent said they would support Obama if he won the nomination, while 38 percent would defect to Sen. John McCain, the presumed Republican nominee..

Obama's supporters were more willing to stay with the Democratic Party. 70 percent said they would vote for Clinton if she were the nominee, while 12 percent would switch to McCain.

8:15 p.m. - A startling number: Mecklenburg County has released its early voting numbers, which showed Obama beating Clinton 73-27 among the county's 45,581 early voters.

8:10 p.m. - At McCrory HQ, taking nothing for granted: The Observer's David Ingram reports from the SouthPark Marriott, where Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and supporters are gathering to view election returns.

David reports: The mood so far: upbeat, but no one's taking anything for granted.

McCrory and his campaign aren't making predictions in the Republican primary for governor, telling people that the results will depend on which campaign turned out its supporters. McCrory has said that the high-profile Democratic presidential race probably siphoned off some of his potential supporters.

About 50 people are eating fruit, cheese and other hors d'oeuvres. The sound system -- which has been going on and off -- has been playing the Beatles' "Come Together" and other, positive music.

There could be a June runoff if no candidate reaches 40 percent.

8 p.m. - Why no Indiana call?: CNN map guru John King says the possible Obama counties, including the one that is home to Indianapolis, are slower with results. MSNBC hints, however, that a call for Clinton may be coming soon.

7:55 p.m. - If a result is announced in the woods...: McClatchy's Margaret Telev, with the Obama campaign in Raleigh, reports on the big moment:

At North Carolina State University's Reynolds Coliseum, where Barack Obama will speak later tonight, the big screen TVs are on and NBC just projected Obama as the winner of the North Carolina primary. Usually when this happens on primary nights, the Obama crowds go wild. But it’s only 7:30 p.m. – they haven’t even started letting the cheering section in yet. It’s just several dozen journalists and a scattering of Obama campaign volunteers and organizers. So instead of the usual waves of sustained roaring and cheering, there was a little burst of "Woo-hoo" and clapping over on the right-hand side of the still mostly-empty room.

7:40 p.m. - Significant numbers: CNN says the exit polls showed a 33 percent black turnout (but no indication if those exit polls included the 40 percent of early voters who were black). The white vote went 59 percent for Clinton, according to exits. That adds up to double-digit win territory for Obama.

7:30 p.m. - N.C. polls close: CNN, Fox, MSNBC, Associated Press call it for Obama. That means a big victory is coming.

7:25 p.m. - The state races to watch: N.C.’s polls are closing in five minutes. What do the state races look like?

The closest might be the Republican race for governor. Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory has a narrow lead over Johnston County state Sen. Fred Smith in the most recent Public Policy Poll, released this week. The Observer's David Ingram will be reporting from McCrory election headquarters tonight.

Beverly Perdue is expected to cruise to victory over Richard Moore tonight in the Democratic race.

A nod to state Sen. Kay Hagan, who leads by a mile in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, yet was still spotted today working for votes at the Winding Springs Elementary precinct in Charlotte's University area.

Another race to watch – the N.C. House District 99 seat, in which Nick Mackey is trying to unseat Huntersville’s Drew Saunders, who has held the seat since 1996.

Mackey, who briefly won a intra-party race for Mecklenburg County sheriff, has been working hard – actually placing calls (not recorded) to voters, we hear. Is it enough to overcome his substantial baggage? We’ll keep an eye on it.

7: 15 p.m. - A Regular Guy: The Raleigh News & Observer reports that Barack Obama made an appearance at a downtown Raleigh bar, ordered a Pabst Blue Ribbon, and hoisted it in the air.









7 p.m. - Indiana's polls close: CNN, Fox and MSNBC say it's too early to call the state.

More exit poll data:

About half the voters in each state said that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright was an important factor in their vote.

The big issue - surprise - was the ecomony. But in Indiana, more voters who said the economy was Issue No. 1 went with Clinton. In North Carolina, those same voters went with Obama.

6:45 p.m. - Counting down: Greetings from the Observer's live blog of the N.C. Primary. The N.C. polls are closing in 45 minutes – with Indiana’s finishing up in 15. Expect results to trickle in soon after. We'll keep you updated with news and reports from the presidential primaries and state races until the winners step back from the victory microphones.


The story of the day is voter turnout – not especially heavy thus far in Mecklenburg County, according to Observer reporter Clay Barbour, who is writing on the topic for tomorrow. But Gary Bartlett, director of the N.C. board of elections, still predicts a record primary vote for the state.


The most relevant exit poll numbers thus far show African-American turnout at 31-33 percent in North Carolina. That’s not as high as Barack Obama would like, but if those numbers are accurate, most voting models say it will be enough for an N.C. victory.

What will we see when the night is done? In the Democratic presidential primaries, there are two easy answers:

1) If Hillary Clinton wins both Indiana and North Carolina, the party will be in disarray, with the delegate math unchanged but the psychology of the race in great dispute. It won’t exactly be starting over, as the Clinton campaign will argue, but she will be given a very good listen as she makes her case on electability.

2) If Obama wins both Indiana and North Carolina, it’s over.

And if we get a split – Clinton winning Indiana and Obama winning N.C. – as most expect?

Conventional wisdom says that the media will yawn, and the race will move on.

Perhaps not.

When tonight’s primaries are done, there will be 217 pledged delegates left. An N.C./Indiana split will mean Clinton is definitely done in pledged delegates (as opposed to pretty much done.) But more importantly for Obama, a victory in N.C. might show the 260 or so uncommitted superdelegates that he is resilient enough to overcome the worst month of his campaign. Doubts may be sufficiently answered. The math will be stark. Superdelegates could very well follow.

Finally, it’s been quiet on the polling shenanigans front, an attorney with N.C.’s election protection program just told me. Good.

All we have are tea leaves, so why not read 'em?

If you’re a Hillary Clinton supporter, you should feel good about:

*Clinton chairman Terry McAuliffe declaring that she will win Indiana. "God love Indiana!" he said this morning on MSNBC. Campaign honchos don’t do that without confidence.

*Barack Obama telling voters this morning in Greenwood, Ind.: "And, uh, I think I think it’s gonna be close. I think it’s gonna be close. I don’t think anybody really knows exactly what’s gonna happen." Historically, this is code for "Our internals say we’re not going to win."

*Few reports lately of heavy turnout in Mecklenburg County. Calm, yes. Long lines, no. Mecklenburg supplies Obama with his best demographics – young voters, affluent voters, black voters, highly educated voters.

If you’re a Barack Obama supporter, you should feel good about:

*No Clinton campaign predictions of a North Carolina victory.

*A Matt Drudge report of a Clinton aide saying she will lose by 15 in N.C. (Be careful with this one. First, it’s Drudge – not always reliable. Second, this could be an expectations-setting canard.)

*Huge turnout in metro Indianapolis – likely to go Obama – as well as a disproportionate amount of absentee ballots coming from three northern Indiana counties that should lean toward Obama, according to the Associated Press.

What to look for in N.C.

Welcome to Primary Day. Be good. Vote.

We'll be joining you in this space just before the polls close at 7:30 p.m., and we'll take you through all the news and races - state and national - on election night.

The biggest race, of course, is the one for the Democratic nomination. What should you look for as the N.C. exit polls - and the results - come in tonight? Here are the numbers that matter:

The White Vote for Clinton, 65 percent: The Clinton campaign has focused its campaigning largely on the white, blue-collar vote in North Carolina. Hillary Clinton has spent most of her time away from the big cities here, and husband Bill has toured dozens of rural N.C. towns and smaller cities. If the exit polls show Hillary Clinton winning more than 65 percent of the white vote, that'll mean those small-town voters have turned out for her. Without that number, she likely won't win.

The African-American turnout, 35 percent: The big question among pollsters this week is how many blacks will vote in North Carolina. In 2004, 32 percent of N.C. voters were black. In early voting this year, the total was just more than 40 percent. The latter total is likely due to Obama's significant get-out-the-vote efforts, but if Obama can approach that number today - say, a 35 percent black turnout - his win will be more than five points. If the turnout is less than 30 percent, Clinton will be celebrating.

The Meck Vote, 200K: You'll likely be reading about busy precincts and record turnout in Mecklenburg County today. The more voters that show, the better the news for Obama. Mecklenburg offers his best demographics - young voters, black voters, better-educated voters. If the Democratic primary vote approaches 200,000 here, that's good news for him.

And finally, one more thing to think about, for us: We want to know what you see at the polls today - not only what might be wrong, but what is right. You're likely tired of hearing about this being an historic election year. Well, it is. Voters are turning out in record numbers, and now it's our turn. Enjoy it. Look around. Tell us what you see. Tell us your story.

Your Morning Buzz:

On the last day of campaigning, candidates and their spouses criss-crossed the state to make final pleas to voters - writes a team of McClatchy reporters.

The Times Adam Nagourney offers a thorough breakdown on what victories - or losses - in N.C. and Indiana would mean for the candidates.

Both candidates did their best to be just regular (Ivy League/wealthy/powerful) folk, writes Eli Saslow of the Washington Post.

The Washington Post's Dan Blaz has eight questions - big picture and small - to consider while you wait for the results.

Indiana is excited about mattering, too.

The candidates retooled their message on trade for N.C. and Indiana, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Two thoughtful writers, the Chicago Tribune's Mary Schmich and Eric Zorn, debate when to end the race.

And finally, in case you were wondering, John and Elizabeth Edwards decided not to endorse.

Closing the deal? The final ads arrive

More gas tax debate ads on the air - but also the "closer" ads from each candidate. In each, the candidates step back for a bigger-picture plea to voters. Obama's is a big buy - a two-minute spot running in N.C. and Indiana. Clinton's is one of two positive closer ads she's putting up in Indiana.

Our ad professor - Wake Forest University's Allan Louden - takes a look at each for you. His grades below.

"Spoke Out" – Clinton Indiana Closer



Says Louden:

Hillary’s closing Indiana spot argues that her concern about economic woes is not that of a "Johnny-come-lately." She reminds voters that she has lectured the Bush administration on energy and gas prices for years. The understated message counters those who see her Gas Tax summer holiday as politically expedient.

The spot’s visuals depict a reality just short of the Great Depression. For voters whose top concern is the economy the ad reinforces their anxiety, and loyalty. Its style is boilerplate, closed factories and newspaper documentation.

The spots effectiveness likely hinges on fidelity: Is the characterization in keeping with Indiana voter’s lived lives? Indicators are that Indiana is doing well economically compared to states in the region. And voters may ask if Clinton’s decades of fighting for the economy have produced results.

Clinton has had several earlier spots that were superior in making her case.

The ad closes with Clinton campaign’s foundation argument - EXPERIENCE - "All it takes is a president who knows how."

Grade: C+

"Minute" – Obama Closer in NC



Louden says:

Obama is running essentially the same "closer-spot" in North Carolina and Indiana. The only distinction is opening scenes, where Obama claims to hold the same values as North Carolina (pastures and picnics) and Indiana (farmlands and factories). The spot is carefully edited for the N.C. market, removing Hoosier t-shirts and an identifier from one Indiana arena.

The spot is very long by TV standards - two minutes - packaging a microcosm of a message that has not changed since the campaign’s inception. Obama: "We can go about doing the same old things with the same old folks in the same old ways and somehow hope we’re going to get a different result. Or we can go ahead and try something entirely different."

The spot tips its hat to the immediate campaign realities - jobs, gas taxes, foreclosures - but the message remains global. (Voiceover: ". . . He trusts us with the truth.")

A strong sub-theme is captured from an Obama speech: "Politics didn’t lead me to working people. Working people led me to politics," inviting identification with a demographic that has remained distanced. And the line, like many of his, is double-edged, defining him while pointedly indicting his unnamed opponent.

The crowd visuals portrayed in the ads are of particular interest. In scene after scene, "real people" are shown positively responding to his words, the vignettes carefully edited as enactment of a post-racial era. Each cut offers a mix of voters, balanced by age, gender, and race - even as in the scenes white voters command the foreground.

While this post-racial portrayal is subject to criticism - more hope than reality - the snapshots appear to be a faithful portrayal of the diversity found at his rallies.

The spot is less about conversion than about reminding voters why they liked Obama in the first place. "Minute" is a clear example of what it means to "stay on message."


Grade: A-

For more of Louden's political and debate analysis, see debatescoop.com

The Day in Superdelegates

Barack Obama has picked up three today.

Maryland party chairman Michael Cryor and vice chairman Lauren Dugas Glover scheduled a news conference this afternoon to endorse Obama - a reflection, perhaps, of the pressure the campaigns are placing on supers to publicly pick a candidate. The Maryland pair previously had said they would stay neutral during the primary season because of their positions.

Earlier today, DNC at-large member Kalyn Free of Oklahoma endorsed Obama.

(Update, 6:20 p.m.: Clinton receives half a superdelegate - Democrats Abroad's Theresa Morelli announced her endorsemenet today. Morelli, who counts as a half-delegate, lives in Milan, Italy.)

Your superdelegate totals: Clinton 269, Obama 256.5.

Total delegates: Obama 1744.5, Clinton 1604. Needed to win: 2,025.

Want to predict the N.C. primary?

Want to figure out the results of the N.C. primary before the networks call a winner?

The folks at FiveThirtyEight.com – who are much more mathematically capable than yours truly – have provided this handy calculator that can help you amaze your spouse, friends and pets tomorrow night.

Simply watch the exit polls come in – the trickle generally begins after 5 p.m. – and plug in how whites voted, how blacks voted, and the percentage of black voters among all voters. You’ll also find exit polls often on the networks’ web sites.

We’ve tried it with some recent polls, and the calculator’s totals are within two percent of the poll results.

Want to play around with the possibilities? Here are some numbers to get you started:

The three N.C. polls released today had Hillary Clinton winning the white vote 62-27, 60-34, and 55-34. Obama wins the black vote, respectively, in these polls 88-9, 84-11, and 77-10 . The percentage of blacks among total voters was 36 and 35 for the first two polls, with the third poll’s total unavailable.

In early N.C. voting, blacks made up 40.6 percent of total voters, but some of that might be due to Obama’s significant get-out-the-vote efforts.

For, ahem, entertainment purposes only.