Carlen Weselovs is a political genius

She is the winner of the Observer's political pick 'em contest, bettering hundreds of fellow pickers (including, ahem, The Ballot).

Carlen correctly picked the winner in the race for president nationally and in North Carolina, which tripped up yours truly and many others. Carlen also picked the N.C. governor's race and N.C.'s U.S. Senate and U.S. House District 8 races. She said Mecklenburg bonds would be approved by voters, and she came within one vote of correctly picking how many Electoral College votes the winner of the presidential race would receive. (Barack Obama got 365; Carlen said he would get 364.)

Despite all that, she was still tied with several finalists.

The tiebreaker: percentage of the vote for the N.C. governor's race winner. Carlen came closest to Bev Perdue's 50.23 percent.

Carlen, 30, lives in Charlotte with her husband and is an accountant with the Lash Group. She says she follows politics closely, listening to NPR, watching TV news channels, talking to people with opinions she respects and checking out Web sites. She says while this election was fascinating, she's followed politics since she was a kid.

Carlen wins a lunch with the Observer's political team. Congrats!

The election winners who didn't run

One president-elect. A bluer House and Senate (although not as blue as Democrats wanted). Who else won Tuesday night?

Young voters: The truest measure of a voting group's enthusiasm is turnout percentage. Final numbers won't be available for a while, but an early peek shows that Barack Obama did what no recent Democrat has been able to do - get young voters to vote. 

North Carolina exit polls show that about 55 percent of N.C. voters ages 18-24 cast ballots in the 2008 general election. Preliminary estimates from civic youth organization CIRCLE show similar numbers nationwide. In 2004, only 47 percent of young U.S. voters turned out - and only 36 percent in 2000. 

Exit polls in some battleground states showed young voters cast almost one out of every five ballots, far more than in any other election since 1972, when 18-year-olds won the right to vote. 

"For us as young people as well as a nation, I think it's a remarkable moment," Heather Smith, executive director of Rock the Vote, tells the Ballot today. "I think we've taken the country into our own hands."

Pollsters: Did you doubt the numbers? Yes, you did. Some of that was skepticism about whether some Americans were actually ready to cast a ballot for a non-traditional candidate. Some of it was that people tend to remember polling failures - and there certainly are some - rather than their overall accuracy. 

The evidence from last night showed that polls did a remarkable job at predicting the outcome of national and state numbers. Obama's six-point national margin was forecast by several national tracking polls, which put Obama up 5-7 points on Monday. A composite of battleground polls also predicted too close to call races in North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana,  narrow Obama victories in Virginia and Florida, and a larger victories in Pennsylvania. 

In fact, if you drew an electoral map based on final surveys, it would look precisely like what we had last night. No surprises. And many relieved pollsters. 

The Observer pick 'em winner: No, we haven't forgotten. We're waiting for a final call on the presidential race in North Carolina. When we get it, we'll tally up the results and declare our own winner. No speech necessary. 

President-elect Obama - the reaction

What do writers and bloggers and front pages think about Barack Obama's victory?

Here are his prepared remarks last night.

Here's the video.

Here's what I thought as he was speaking.

Here are the front pages this morning from 595 newspapers in the U.S. and worldwide. (The headline from my former employer, the Anniston Star in Alabama: "IN OUR LIFETIME").

The Charlotte Observer, in an editorial, says "the election Tuesday of Obama – 47-year-old son of a Kenyan father and a white mother – almost certainly marks a transformation in this country."

The New York Times says Obama won because "he saw what is wrong with this country: the utter failure of government to protect its citizens."

The Washington Post says the victory is "momentous for the opportunity it presents to put the country on a new and better path."

The Wall Street Journal called it "a tribute to American opportunity."

The National Review said the victory shows, "The public has, however, clearly rejected the Republican party in its present configuration. "

The NYT's Charles Blow says that "African-Americans, their hearts weary from disappointment, dared to hope and dream again. Tonight their dream has been realized."

Paul Krugman says Obama will need to be not only the first black president, but one of our great presidents.The Post's E.J. Dionne says it is time to hope again.

The National Review's Byron York recaps what sank John McCain.

The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder says Obama grew into a candidate Americans believed could be president.

Author and pastor T.D. Jakes wonders if a black president can heal the racial divide.

The night in three minutes - a video. (Yes, it includes that funky CNN hologram.)

And finally, Newsweek's Anna Quindlen says this is a moment when America turns out to be as good as its hype.

Election Night 2008

12:25 a.m.: My son's grandmother, who lives in a rural county in Alabama, once told me that decades ago, you'd have a hard time finding someone to tell you he voted for George Wallace, a segregationalist who managed to serve four terms as the state's governor.

My son's mother grew up in that Alabama county, and when we had children in this city, she wanted to make sure they grew to see the successes of diversity - to see people unlike themselves in the same kind of houses they lived in, with the same kind of jobs their parents have.

This is what those boys have on their street, in their schools. And today, when they wake up, they will see a black man was elected president of their country. It is no small thing.

Soon, Barack Obama will have governing to confront and mistakes to make and politics to mire his presidency. But early Wednesday, he talked of the challenges America has faced and defeated - and what, with this election, we accomplished once more.

"Change," he said. No small thing.

11:30 p.m. - "Whatever our differences, we are fellow Americans": A gracious John McCain told America that Barack Obama "has achieved a great thing for himself and his country," and he pledged to help the president-elect confront the challenges the country will face.

"This is an historic election," McCain told a small and somber Arizona crowd, "and I recognize the special significance it has for African-Americans and the special pride they feel tonight."

He pointedly told his supporters that he will support "the man who was my former opponent and will be my president," and he urged them to do the same.

"Whatever our differences," he said of Obama, "we are fellow Americans."

And, notably: "No association has ever meant more to me than that."

11 p.m. - Your moment of history: Says CNN's Wolf Blitzer: "He will be the first African-American president of the United States."

ABC's Charlie Gibson: "The great document of the United States ... the constitution says, 'We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal.'"

10:48 p.m. - Almost done: Associated Press and Fox declare Virginia for Obama. That puts him at 220 electoral votes, with polls closing on California's 55 at 11 p.m. Look for the race to be called soon.

10:31 p.m. - The Obama (or perhaps the Bush) effect: The story of N.C. tonight is one that's being told in downballot races across the country. Obama is locked in a dead heat here in N.C., but Democratic turnout has helped candidates like Governor-elect Bev Perdue, Senator-to-be Kay Hagan and new U.S. Rep Larry Kissell.

Especially hurt by the Democratic turnout was Charlotte's Pat McCrory, who saw the northern half of his own county - now a Democratic stronghold - vote for Perdue. That northern Mecklenburg vote might be the difference in a very close governor's race that went to Perdue.

10:04 p.m. - N.C. dead even for president: With 3.5 million votes cast in N.C., McCain leads Obama by just 20,000 votes. Still close to a million votes left to count.

Larry Kissell has a 54-45 lead in N.C.'s District 8 U.S. House seat. More than half the vote is in there. Seems like Hayes' home county of Cabarrus has reported most or all of its results.

(Updated, 10:30 p.m - The Associated Press declares Kissell the winner.)

9:45 p.m. - Perdue leading - in Mecklenburg? With more than a third of Mecklenburg precincts reporting, Bev Perdue is leading Pat McCrory by 21,000 votes countywide. She's riding precincts north of Uptown, which are Democratic strongholds in the county. Lots more votes left to count in Mecklenburg, however.

Overall in N.C., Perdue is up 50-47 with 56 percent of the state reporting.

9:29 p.m. - Is that it? An Ohio win for Obama - declared by several networks - seems to close the electoral map for John McCain. The networks will wait to call a presidential winner until Obama actually reaches 270. But now, with California, Oregon and Washington state expected to be solid blue, Obama will reach 270 unless McCain finds a miracle out west.

9:11 p.m. - Georgia for McCain: Both Fox and NBC are calling Georgia for John McCain. That would have been a clincher for Obama. A bullet dodged for the Republican.

The map is settling in as many predicted. Obama gets Minnesota, Michigan and New Mexico. McCain gets Wyoming, Idaho, Alabama, Arkansas. McCain needs some surprises now - specifically Virginia. Waiting on results from Fairfax. A 40,000 vote McCain lead with 30 percent of precincts left.

"We're just eager to get moving forward," says the everpresent Axelrod, now on ABC.

9:01 p.m. - NBC says McCain wins North Dakota - Seems like a small victory, but it stops the leaking for a few moments and is an indication that the West might not be quite ready to swing blue. Obama was close there in polls. McCain has to overperform in Colorado and Nevada like this.

8:50 p.m. - We are NOT calling Florida: But Obama is doing well in counties there that George Bush won in 2004. He's about to win Pinellas County, on the west coast of the state, part of the Interstate 4 corridor that's so critical to the state. Also Seminole, Osceola and Orange, in the center of the state.

8:40 p.m. - Waiting on Virginia: Just as Democrats are celebrating every minute that goes by without an Indiana call, Republicans are doing the same with Virginia. McCain has a 9-point lead with about 40 percent of the vote in. No results, however, from Richmond County, which will tighten the race for Obama. Also Fairfax, Arlington.

CNN's Dana Bash says McCain aides tell her their focus in on Virginia now.

David Axelrod tells NBC's Brian Williams: "We're very happy with what we see, but it's early yet."

8:13 p.m. - New Hampshire for Obama: Yes, it's four electoral votes. But it's my home state. Indulge me.

8:09 p.m. - States not called, some thoughts: The states where polls have closed but no call has been made include Indiana, Virginia, and N.C. from the 7 p.m. hour and Missouri and Florida from the 8 p.m. hour. "People project Florida early at their peril," ABC's Charlie Gibson says.

Virginia remains a key state for Obama - and now a must win for McCain. Democrats consider every minute that goes by without an Indiana call a victory. Also very interesting - Alabama and Mississippi, both of which closed at 8, have not been called. They will not go to Obama, but the fact that they're still out there is a good sign for Obama.

8:01 p.m. - What Pennsylvania means: There will be some pundits - hello, David Gergen - declaring that Obama's Pennsylvania win pretty much seals this election. It's certainly big, and it seems to indicate that he'll win all of John Kerry's states from 2004. If that's true, he needs to hold the Kerry states and find 18 more electoral votes. Virginia has 13. North Carolina has 15. Colorado has nine. If Obama wants to dream big - Florida has 27.

7:53 p.m. - Somber expectations for Dole: NBC's Norah O'Donnell just reported that a Republican strategist is predicting that "an Obama sunami" and the tactic of tying Dole to President Bush will sweep Elizabeth Dole out of office and Kay Hagan in.

7:48 p.m. - McCain wins S.C.: NBC declares McCain the winner in S.C. Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri and New Hampshire to close at 8. Pennsylvania is the state everyone is watching. Florida, if it turns against McCain, becomes just as significant.

7:47 p.m. - N.C. early voting results: No surprises here - Obama, Kay Hagan and Bev Perdue up big after early voting. Obama's lead is about 160,000 votes statewide.

7:40 p.m. - Worried? CNN's David Gergen says he's getting called from worried Obama supporters. Chill, he says. (Well, he didn't use that word.) What we've seen thus far is that the states close in polling are close now. McCain supporters need an overall divergence from the polls. Obama needs the results to look very close to what we saw Sunday and Monday.

7:30 p.m. - N.C. polls closed: As with the other battlegrounds, don't expect this one to be called quickly - and likely not for a long while. Obama came into today with a significant lead in early voting - perhaps as much as 200,000 votes - so McCain has ground to make up. Exit polls - yes, they are unreliable - nevertheless show very similar demographic breakdowns as the final polls. So - a very close race.

Marc Ambinder of the Atlantic reports that McCain sources say Democratic turnout "appears very high" in North Carolina. That's what this race will come down to.

7:02 p.m. - No surprises: Kentucky to McCain. Vermont to Obama. South Carolina, Indiana, Virginia, Georgia too close to call. South Carolina?

6:55 p.m. - First polls close: In Indiana, Virginia and Georgia, polls close in five minutes. What can we expect? Probably nothing soon.

Both races are likely close, which means the networks won't be calling them anytime soon. If we do get a quick call on these, it's a sign that the winner is overperforming poll numbers - perhaps a foreshadowing of what we might see the rest of the night. If none are called, that means the polls are likely holding true - a good early sign for Barack Obama.

On the states: Indiana, which McCain narrowly led in late polls, is simply a must-win for the Republican. Virginia, which Obama narrowly led, is not a must-win for either campaign - but both would consider it a huge victory. For Obama - Virginia plus Pennsylvania almost assures him of a very good night. For McCain, a Virginia win gives him new routes to victory.

Georgia had a significant early voting turnout, but McCain expanded his lead in most polls as the election approached. Like Indiana, Georgia is a necessity for McCain and a prize for Obama.

6:45 p.m. - Counting down: Greetings from the Ballot's live blog of election night. North Carolina's polls are closing in 45 minutes - with two critical states, Virginia and Indiana, closing in 15 minutes. We'll keep you updated with news and reports from the presidential, U.S. Senate and state races until the winners step back from the victory microphones.

The story of the day thus far is voter turnout. There have been long lines reported around the country, although not many in North Carolina, thanks to heavy early voting. We'll know soon enough which campaign did a better job turning out most of its supporters. The winner in that regard wins several tight battleground states.

There have been few voting problems reported in North Carolina. One Raleigh precinct - Barwell Road Community Center - will get an extra hour until 8:30 p.m after an election official left ballots in her grandson's truck this morning. Voting was delayed by just more than a half-hour while the ballots were retrieved.

We'll be back shortly with a preview of Indiana and Virginia.

Barack Obama, prepared remarks

Remarks of President-Elect Barack Obama—as prepared for delivery

Election Night

Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

Chicago, Illinois

-

If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.

It’s the answer told by lines that stretched around schools and churches in numbers this nation has never seen; by people who waited three hours and four hours, many for the very first time in their lives, because they believed that this time must be different; that their voice could be that difference.

It’s the answer spoken by young and old, rich and poor, Democrat and Republican, black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American, gay, straight, disabled and not disabled – Americans who sent a message to the world that we have never been a collection of Red States and Blue States: we are, and always will be, the United States of America.

It’s the answer that led those who have been told for so long by so many to be cynical, and fearful, and doubtful of what we can achieve to put their hands on the arc of history and bend it once more toward the hope of a better day.

It’s been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America.

I just received a very gracious call from Senator McCain. He fought long and hard in this campaign, and he’s fought even longer and harder for the country he loves. He has endured sacrifices for America that most of us cannot begin to imagine, and we are better off for the service rendered by this brave and selfless leader. I congratulate him and Governor Palin for all they have achieved, and I look forward to working with them to renew this nation’s promise in the months ahead.

I want to thank my partner in this journey, a man who campaigned from his heart and spoke for the men and women he grew up with on the streets of Scranton and rode with on that train home to Delaware, the Vice President-elect of the United States, Joe Biden.

I would not be standing here tonight without the unyielding support of my best friend for the last sixteen years, the rock of our family and the love of my life, our nation’s next First Lady, Michelle Obama. Sasha and Malia, I love you both so much, and you have earned the new puppy that’s coming with us to the White House. And while she’s no longer with us, I know my grandmother is watching, along with the family that made me who I am. I miss them tonight, and know that my debt to them is beyond measure.

To my campaign manager David Plouffe, my chief strategist David Axelrod, and the best campaign team ever assembled in the history of politics – you made this happen, and I am forever grateful for what you’ve sacrificed to get it done.

But above all, I will never forget who this victory truly belongs to – it belongs to you.

I was never the likeliest candidate for this office. We didn’t start with much money or many endorsements. Our campaign was not hatched in the halls of Washington – it began in the backyards of Des Moines and the living rooms of Concord and the front porches of Charleston.

It was built by working men and women who dug into what little savings they had to give five dollars and ten dollars and twenty dollars to this cause. It grew strength from the young people who rejected the myth of their generation’s apathy; who left their homes and their families for jobs that offered little pay and less sleep; from the not-so-young people who braved the bitter cold and scorching heat to knock on the doors of perfect strangers; from the millions of Americans who volunteered, and organized, and proved that more than two centuries later, a government of the people, by the people and for the people has not perished from this Earth. This is your victory.

I know you didn’t do this just to win an election and I know you didn’t do it for me. You did it because you understand the enormity of the task that lies ahead. For even as we celebrate tonight, we know the challenges that tomorrow will bring are the greatest of our lifetime – two wars, a planet in peril, the worst financial crisis in a century. Even as we stand here tonight, we know there are brave Americans waking up in the deserts of Iraq and the mountains of Afghanistan to risk their lives for us. There are mothers and fathers who will lie awake after their children fall asleep and wonder how they’ll make the mortgage, or pay their doctor’s bills, or save enough for college. There is new energy to harness and new jobs to be created; new schools to build and threats to meet and alliances to repair.

The road ahead will be long. Our climb will be steep. We may not get there in one year or even one term, but America – I have never been more hopeful than I am tonight that we will get there. I promise you – we as a people will get there.

There will be setbacks and false starts. There are many who won’t agree with every decision or policy I make as President, and we know that government can’t solve every problem. But I will always be honest with you about the challenges we face. I will listen to you, especially when we disagree. And above all, I will ask you join in the work of remaking this nation the only way it’s been done in America for two-hundred and twenty-one years – block by block, brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand.

What began twenty-one months ago in the depths of winter must not end on this autumn night. This victory alone is not the change we seek – it is only the chance for us to make that change. And that cannot happen if we go back to the way things were. It cannot happen without you.

So let us summon a new spirit of patriotism; of service and responsibility where each of us resolves to pitch in and work harder and look after not only ourselves, but each other. Let us remember that if this financial crisis taught us anything, it’s that we cannot have a thriving Wall Street while Main Street suffers – in this country, we rise or fall as one nation; as one people.

Let us resist the temptation to fall back on the same partisanship and pettiness and immaturity that has poisoned our politics for so long. Let us remember that it was a man from this state who first carried the banner of the Republican Party to the White House – a party founded on the values of self-reliance, individual liberty, and national unity. Those are values we all share, and while the Democratic Party has won a great victory tonight, we do so with a measure of humility and determination to heal the divides that have held back our progress. As Lincoln said to a nation far more divided than ours, “We are not enemies, but friends…though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection.” And to those Americans whose support I have yet to earn – I may not have won your vote, but I hear your voices, I need your help, and I will be your President too.

And to all those watching tonight from beyond our shores, from parliaments and palaces to those who are huddled around radios in the forgotten corners of our world – our stories are singular, but our destiny is shared, and a new dawn of American leadership is at hand. To those who would tear this world down – we will defeat you. To those who seek peace and security – we support you. And to all those who have wondered if America’s beacon still burns as bright – tonight we proved once more that the true strength of our nation comes not from our the might of our arms or the scale of our wealth, but from the enduring power of our ideals: democracy, liberty, opportunity, and unyielding hope.

For that is the true genius of America – that America can change. Our union can be perfected. And what we have already achieved gives us hope for what we can and must achieve tomorrow.

This election had many firsts and many stories that will be told for generations. But one that’s on my mind tonight is about a woman who cast her ballot in Atlanta. She’s a lot like the millions of others who stood in line to make their voice heard in this election except for one thing – Ann Nixon Cooper is 106 years old.

She was born just a generation past slavery; a time when there were no cars on the road or planes in the sky; when someone like her couldn’t vote for two reasons – because she was a woman and because of the color of her skin.

And tonight, I think about all that she’s seen throughout her century in America – the heartache and the hope; the struggle and the progress; the times we were told that we can’t, and the people who pressed on with that American creed: Yes we can.

At a time when women’s voices were silenced and their hopes dismissed, she lived to see them stand up and speak out and reach for the ballot. Yes we can.

When there was despair in the dust bowl and depression across the land, she saw a nation conquer fear itself with a New Deal, new jobs and a new sense of common purpose. Yes we can.

When the bombs fell on our harbor and tyranny threatened the world, she was there to witness a generation rise to greatness and a democracy was saved. Yes we can.

She was there for the buses in Montgomery, the hoses in Birmingham, a bridge in Selma, and a preacher from Atlanta who told a people that “We Shall Overcome.” Yes we can.

A man touched down on the moon, a wall came down in Berlin, a world was connected by our own science and imagination. And this year, in this election, she touched her finger to a screen, and cast her vote, because after 106 years in America, through the best of times and the darkest of hours, she knows how America can change. Yes we can.

America, we have come so far. We have seen so much. But there is so much more to do. So tonight, let us ask ourselves – if our children should live to see the next century; if my daughters should be so lucky to live as long as Ann Nixon Cooper, what change will they see? What progress will we have made?

This is our chance to answer that call. This is our moment. This is our time – to put our people back to work and open doors of opportunity for our kids; to restore prosperity and promote the cause of peace; to reclaim the American Dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth – that out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope, and where we are met with cynicism, and doubt, and those who tell us that we can’t, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people:

Yes We Can. Thank you, God bless you, and may God Bless the United States of America.

Exit poll info - national and N.C.

The economy is by far the top issue to voters who were surveyed by exit pollers today.

An Associated Press exit poll finds six in 10 voters across the country picked the economy as the most important issue facing the nation. None of four other issues on the list — energy, Iraq, terrorism and health care — was picked by more than one in 10.

In North Carolina:

*22% of voters were African American and Obama is getting 97% of their vote. As expected, an improvement on Kerry's performance four years ago. (A cautionary note: 2004 N.C. exit polls said 26 percent of voters were black; actual percentage was 18.)

*White voters are backing McCain by 62% to 37%.

*11% of voters in NC are new voters, voting for the first time this year, they too have the economy on their minds and 3 in 4 of them are backing Obama.

*Change and values are nearly tied for the #1 quality. Obama wins the change people, while McCain takes the values people.

Nationally:

Voters also have a very sour view of the condition of the nation's economy.

About half said it's poor and nearly as many said the economy is not good. The results are based on a preliminary partial sample of nearly 10,000 voters in Election Day exit polls and telephone interviews over the past week for early voters.

Marc Ambinder of the Atlantic writes that change voters made up 35% of the electorate in exit polls; 30% wanted someone who shared their values. One in ten voters are late-deciders.

More nuggets: Half of voters say they believe government should be doing more to fix the country's problems, while just 43 percent say the country should be doing less.

Thirty percent of voters are scared of the prospect of a McCain victory, while 23 percent are scared of the prospect of an Obama victory.

CNN reports that of those who listed Iraq as a key issue, Obama's leading two to one.

Six in 10 voters said future appointments to the Supreme Court were an important factor in their vote.

Two-thirds favor drilling for oil offshore in U.S. waters where it is not allowed now.

More than half oppose the $700 billion government plan to help failing financial companies.

National demographics:

One in 10 voters said they were voting this year for the first time, and they were disproportionately young and nonwhite. Six in 10 of those voters were under age 30. One in five new voters were black and about as many were Hispanic. A quarter of new voters said they don't have landline phones at home, only cell phones.

As usual, women were a little more numerous than men in the electorate.

About one in seven voters were under age 30 and as many were over 65.

A third reported household income of less than $50,000; a quarter had income of more than $100,000.

One in five had no more than a high school diploma; nearly half had a college degree.

One in four voters were white born-again evangelical Christians.

Nearly half of voters have a gun in their household.

Just 38 percent believe Sarah Palin is prepared to be President, significantly less than the 67 percent saying Joe Biden is prepared.

The Buzz: Setting up the day

Welcome to Election Day. Be good. Vote. 

We'll be joining you tonight before the first polls close nationally at 7 p.m., and we'll take you through all the news and big races - state and national - on election night. 

Here are your final election polls. 

Here's what everyone is predicting. Have a prediction of your own? Play the Observer's free political pick 'em game here. (Yes, there are prizes.)

Three things you should watch for tonight: 

Virginia: Barack Obama and John McCain each can win the presidency without it, but Virginia will be the first test of how well Obama has held his polling leads - and whether those polls are accurate. He leads solidly by 4-6 in most Virginia surveys, with little variation. If he holds on to this traditionally Republican state, it's a good start to his electoral night. If McCain grabs a victory, you can start taking all those polls and crumpling them up. 

The black turnout in N.C.: Blacks, who historically vote overwhelmingly for Democrats, make up 21 percent of N.C.'s registered voters. In early N.C. voting, they cast 26 percent of the 2.57 million ballots. That percentage will go down as the votes come in, but if it settles at 22-23 percent, Obama has a good shot at the state. If it drops all the way back to 21 percent, McCain has the advantage here.  

Pennsylvania: Of course. McCain has staked his electoral night on Pennsylvania, and his attention to the state has paid off with some tightening polls. Those numbers, however, stabilized in the two days before the election - settling in at a six- to -seven-point lead, with a few polls showing a bigger margin. We might be waiting a while for the state to be called, however; with no early voting, you can be sure of long lines remaining when the polls close at 8 p.m.

Finally - forget about those national polls above. This election is both close and close to a blowout. McCain is within four points in at least six critical battleground states - Virginia, Ohio, Missouri, N.C., Florida and Indiana. If he wins them all - not likely, but not impossible - then we'll be waiting for some west coast results. If Obama wins even one or two of those tight races - or anyplace McCain is favored - the presidency is his. 

Your morning buzz:

Obama takes the early lead with a win in Dixville Notch, N.H. 

A second Troopergate report disagrees with the first and clears Sarah Palin.

The next president will face an economic era unlike any other, says New York Times columnist David Brooks. 

The networks will be at their snazziest - with new technological gadgets - tonight, the Wall Street Journal reports. 

So little time left, but so many things that can go wrong. Slate does a recap of everything that already has gone wrong, voting-wise, in this election. 

The "I voted" sticker - wear it proudly, says the Washington Post's Hank Stuever. 

The final polls - national edition

After showing some startling disparities in the past couple of weeks, the final national polls tell very similar stories today - Barack Obama is up by an average of eight points in single surveys and seven points in tracking polls.

Gallup gave Obama its largest lead an 11-point margin in its tracking poll, as well as its survey with USA Today. Investor's Business Daily had the slimmest margin, 4.5, in its tracking poll. That also was the only poll that had Obama under 50 percent.

The final polls released today:

FOX News: Obama 50, McCain 43.

Marist College: Obama 53, McCain 44 (updated Tuesday.) 

NBC/WSJ: Obama 51, McCain 43.

USA Today/Gallup: Obama 55, McCain 44.

Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama 50, McCain 42.

Today's tracking polls:

Rasmussen: Obama 52, McCain 46.

DailyKos/Research 2000: Obama 51, McCain 45 (updated Tuesday.)

Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50, McCain 45.

Washington Post/ABC: Obama 53, McCain 44.

IBD/TIPP: Obama 47.5, McCain 43.

Zogby: Obama 51, McCain 44.

Gallup: Obama 53, McCain 42.

GWU: Obama 50, McCain 44.

CBS: Obama 51, McCain 42

Obama at UNC Charlotte - live updates

(Updated, 7:15 p.m.) Barack Obama made his final appeal to North Carolina today with an early-evening speech at UNC Charlotte.

7:15 p.m. - Summing it up: Hours after learning of his grandmother's death, Barack Obama told a Charlotte crowd that Americans have a chance to honor "quiet heroes" like her in tomorrow's election.

Obama told a rainy outdoor rally on the UNC Charlotte campus that "this is a little bit of a bittersweet day for me." But he urged supporters not to let up on Election Day.

"Don't believe for a second that this is election is over," he said, exhorting his supporters to knock on doors and make calls tomorrow.

The Observer's Jim Morrill estimated the crowd at 10,000-12,000.

Obama told the story of his grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, who died of cancer in Hawaii earlier today. "She was one of those quiet heroes that we have all across America who, they’re … not famous, their names aren’t in the newspapers but each and every day they work hard, they look after their families, they sacrifice for their children and their grandchildren," Obama said.

He added: "That’s what America’s about, and that’s what we’re fighting for."

As he has all campaign, Obama linked his opponent, John McCain, to the economic philosophies of George Bush.

Said Obama: "At a moment like this, the last thing we can afford is four more years of the tired, old theory that says we should give more to billionaires and big corporations and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else. The last thing we can afford is four more years where no one in Washington is watching anyone on Wall Street because politicians and lobbyists killed common-sense regulations. Those are the theories that got us into this mess. They haven’t worked, and it’s time for change."

When supporters booed at the mention of McCain's name, he said: "You don't need to boo. You just need to vote."

The Observer's Lisa Zagaroli will have a full report from the speech later this evening.

6:58 p.m. - Full remarks: Here's the speech, as prepared.

6:40 p.m. - Obama on stage: He tells the crowd of 6,000-7,000 - "What an amazing crowd on an amazing night."

He talks about his grandmother dying, calls her a "quiet hero." The election, he says, is a chance to honor those quiet heroes.

6:12 p.m. - No letup: Obama is headed toward campus.

What should the (wet) crowd expect? Presidential candidates traditionally go positive in the final day of campaigning. If Obama's speech this morning in Florida is a guide, he will do that some in Charlotte by telling voters about the change they could help bring to America.

But he also will continue to press the message that brought him his current lead in the polls - that John McCain shares George Bush's economic policies and philosophies. "After 21 months and three debates, Senator McCain still has not been able to tell the American people a single major thing he’d do differently from George Bush when it comes to the economy," Obama told the crowd in Jacksonville.

He added: "Look, we’ve tried it John McCain’s way. We’ve tried it George Bush’s way. Deep down, Senator McCain knows that, which is why his campaign said that 'if we keep talking about the economy, we’re going to lose.' That’s why I’m talking about the economy. That’s why he’s spent these last weeks calling me every name in the book. Because that’s how you play the game in Washington. When you can’t win on the strength of your ideas, you make a big election about small things."

5:30 p.m. - Going to be a little while...: The Observer's Lisa Zagaroli reports that it's raining hard at UNCC. Jim Morrill reports that Obama has stopped in Uptown and will be there about another 45 minutes.

5:15 p.m. - Hi, this is Barack Obama: The Observer's Jim Morrill reports that Obama just visited his campaign Charlotte's headquarters on Elizabeth Avenue. There, he talked to volunteers making signs and placing phone calls to voters, and he made a half-dozen calls himself.

On one call, he said: "I'm just making calls, hunting for votes, because we want to win North Carolina."

To the 40 or 50 volunteers, he said: "I hope you guys feel like you're making a little history. We just got to work another 24 hours. If we take North Carolina, we win this election."

4:54 p.m. - Obama statement on grandmother: From Barack Obama and his half sister, Maya Soetoro-Ng, on the death of their grandmother, Madelyn Dunham:

"It is with great sadness that we announce that our grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died peacefully after a battle with cancer. She was the cornerstone of our family, and a woman of extraordinary accomplishment, strength, and humility. She was the person who encouraged and allowed us to take chances. She was proud of her grandchildren and great-grandchildren and left this world with the knowledge that her impact on all of us was meaningful and enduring. Our debt to her is beyond measure.

"Our family wants to thank all of those who sent flowers, cards, well-wishes, and prayers during this difficult time. It brought our grandmother and us great comfort. Our grandmother was a private woman, and we will respect her wish for a small private ceremony to be held at a later date. In lieu of flowers, we ask that you make a donation to any worthy organization in search of a cure for cancer."

4:36 p.m. - Sad news: Barack Obama's grandmother, Madelyn Dunham, has died. Obama left the campaign trail last month to visit her in Hawaii. A statement from the campaign is forthcoming.

4:18 p.m. - Lining up: Barack Obama will be speaking at UNCC in a little more than an hour. It's his second campaign stop of the day; he was in Florida this morning and will appear in Virginia tonight. All three states are competitive - perhaps none more so than N.C., where Obama leads one poll today and McCain leads another, each by one point.

Lisa Zagaroli reports that supporters are arriving on campus:

Hundreds of people lined up hours before a scheduled appearance for a chance to see the Democratic presidential nominee.

Wearing Obama shirts and pins, some wrapped in blankets on the breezy overcast day, folks said they wanted to be a part of history and see their favored presidential candidate.

Obama was making his eighth and final stop in North Carolina, which has emerged as a battleground state, as part of his last sweep of the country before Election Day.

"It’s the night before the election and I wanted to become because I thought Obama would be pumped up," said Adria Clark, a nurse from Charlotte. "I wanted to see him up close and personal before hopefully he become president."

Clark said she saw him three years ago in Chicago and she had a strong feeling back then he was destined for the presidency.

"He seems intelligent, kind-hearted, a down-to-earth person. I believe in his vision," she said.
UNCC student Morgan Bowles said it was important for young voters to come out and support their candidates.

"Regardless of who it is who wins, we’ve made history now with the number of registered voters on campus," Bowles said.

Bowles said the nation’s economic future is at stake with this election and she likes Obama’s tax plan.

"I’m a child of a single mother. She worked so hard to support me and send me to college," said Bowles, who’s originally from Raleigh.

Letter carrier Fred Wade said he drove from his home in Greensboro to see Obama because he’s the best man for the White House.

"He’s the most qualified, he’s the most educated, it’s time to have some intellect in the White House," he said.

Wade, who gathered with the racially diverse crowd hours before Obama was scheduled to arrive at the athletic field, said his preference for Obama, had nothing to do with race.

"Barack has some ideas to bring national pride back to the country," he said.

Perdue - "like the chicken" - in Charlotte

Democrat Bev Perdue stopped in Republican Pat McCrory's backyard Monday as part of a final swing around the state, the Observer's Jim Morrill reports:

Says Morrill:

Perdue made a lunchtime stop at the United House of Prayer on Beatties Ford Road. She was greeted by a delegation of Democratic elected officials, who almost outnumbered diners in the church cafeteria.

Surrounded by reporters and TV cameras, Perdue hopped from one table to another.

"I might sit down and eat part of that chicken," she said as she leaned down to greet Diedor Williams, a county employee eating baked chicken and green beans. Introducing herself, the lieutenant governor reminded him that her name is "Perdue, like the chicken."

Speaking to reporters on her way in, she defended ads that McCrory has said are aimed at pitting the rest of the state against Charlotte.

"We're all in this together," she said of the allegation, "and tomorrow night all this will be laid to rest."

Perdue accused McCrory is using a strategy to "conquer and divide."

He hasn't conquered, she said, "He's just divided."

The final polls - North Carolina

N.C. polls in the past seven days show a truly even race for president, almost a tossup for N.C. governor, and a U.S. Senate race that might no longer be much of a race.

The polls, most recent first:

President:

Public Policy Polling (Raleigh): Barack Obama 50, John McCain 49 (10/31-11/02; 2,100 likely voters, 2.1% margin of error
Zogby: McCain 49, Obama 48 (10/30-11/02; 600 LV; 4.1 MOE)
Mason-Dixon: McCain 49, Obama 46 (10/29-10/30; 625 LV; 4.0 MOE)
Research 2000: Obama 47, McCain 45 (10/28-30; 600 LV, 4.0 MOE)
Insider Advantage: McCain 48, Obama 48 (10/29; 641 LV; 3.7 MOE)
Civitas (Raleigh): Obama 47, McCain 46 (10/27-29; 600 LV; 4.2 MOE)
CNN/Time: Obama 52, McCain 46 (10/23-28; 667 LV; 4.0 MOE)

What they show: Little real movement in the final week. Dems believe Obama is carrying at least a 150,000 vote advantage into Tuesday, thanks to early voting. Republicans boast of their vaunted 72-hour get out the vote operation.

Note: Rasmussen, which had Obama leading 50-48 in a poll conducted Wednesday, will be releasing its final N.C. poll around 6 p.m. today.

N.C. Senate

PPP: Kay Hagan (D) 51, Elizabeth Dole (R) 44 (10/31-11/02; 2,100 LV)
Research 2000: Hagan 50, Dole 45 (10/28-30; 600 LV)
Rasmussen: Hagan 52, Dole 46 (10/29; 700 LV)
Civitas: Hagan 45, Dole 43 (10/27-29; 600 LV)
CNN/Time: Hagan 53, Dole 44 (10/23-28; 690 LV)

What they show: The "Godless" ad hurt Dole, who had tightened the race to 3 points in one poll and taken a lead in another.

N.C. governor

PPP: Bev Perdue (D) 49, Pat McCrory (R) 48 (10/31-11/02; 2,100 LV)
Research 2000: Perdue 49, McCrory 44 (10/28-30; 600 LV)
Civitas: Perdue 45, McCrory 43 (10/27-29; 600 LV)

What they show: After a mid-October surge, McCrory has fallen behind in recent polls. Perdue has seemed insulated from movement in N.C.'s presidential polling. McCrory is hoping to find enough votes from Charlotte Dems and independents.

Barack Obama - remarks in Charlotte

Barack Obama, prepared remarks
Charlotte, N.C. - Nov. 3

Added to beginning:

This is a little bit of a bitter sweet time – we have had a remarkable campaign – I didn’t know how it would turn out. All of you have created this incredible campaign. Some of you heard my grandmother who helped raise me passed this morning. She has gone home – she died in here sleep with my sister by her side. I wont talk about his long. She was born in Kansas in 1922 she lived through the great depression two world wars – she saw her husband go out and she went to work and take care of her kid. She is one of the people who is not famous and their names are not in the paper but they work hard everyday they sacrifice and take care of their kids. In this town there are a lot of quite heroes like that. They get satisfaction from seeing that their kdis live a better life then they did. That’s what America is about.

In one day we can honor those quiet heroes.

-

North Carolina, I have just one word for you: tomorrow.

After decades of broken politics in Washington, eight years of failed policies from George Bush, and twenty-one months of a campaign that has taken us from the rocky coast of Maine to the sunshine of California, we are one day away from change in America.

Tomorrow, you can turn the page on policies that have put the greed and irresponsibility of Wall Street before the hard work and sacrifice of folks on Main Street.

Tomorrow, you can choose policies that invest in our middle-class, create new jobs, and grow this economy so that everyone has a chance to succeed; from the CEO to the secretary and the janitor; from the factory owner to the men and women who work on its floor.

Tomorrow, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope.

Tomorrow, at this defining moment in history, you can give this country the change we need.

We began this journey in the depths of winter nearly two years ago, on the steps of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois. Back then, we didn’t have much money or many endorsements. We weren’t given much of a chance by the polls or the pundits. We knew how steep our climb would be.

But I also knew this. I knew that the size of our challenges had outgrown the smallness of our politics. I believed that Democrats and Republicans and Americans of every political stripe were hungry for new ideas, new leadership, and a new kind of politics – one that favors common sense over ideology; one that focuses on those values and ideals we hold in common as Americans.

Most of all, I knew the American people were a decent, generous people willing to work hard and sacrifice for future generations. I was convinced that when we come together, our voices are more powerful than the most entrenched lobbyists, or the most vicious political attacks, or the full force of a status quo in Washington that wants to keep things just the way they are.

Twenty-one months later, my faith in the American people has been vindicated. That’s how we’ve come so far and so close – because of you. That’s how we’ll change this country – with your help. And that’s why we can’t afford to slow down, sit back, or let up, one minute, or one second in the next twenty-four hours. Not now. Not when so much is at stake.

We are in the middle of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. 760,000 workers have lost their jobs this year. Businesses and families can’t get credit. Home values are falling. Pensions are disappearing. It’s gotten harder and harder to make the mortgage, or fill up your gas tank, or even keep the electricity on at the end of the month.

At a moment like this, the last thing we can afford is four more years of the tired, old theory that says we should give more to billionaires and big corporations and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else. The last thing we can afford is four more years where no one in Washington is watching anyone on Wall Street because politicians and lobbyists killed common-sense regulations. Those are the theories that got us into this mess. They haven’t worked, and it’s time for change. That’s why I’m running for President of the United States.

Now, Senator McCain has served this country honorably. And he can point to a few moments over the past eight years where he has broken from George Bush. But when it comes to the economy – when it comes to the central issue of this election – the plain truth is that John McCain has stood with this President every step of the way. Voting for the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy that he once opposed. Voting for the Bush budgets that spent us into debt. Calling for less regulation twenty-one times just this year. Those are the facts.

After twenty-one months and three debates, Senator McCain still has not been able to tell the American people a single major thing he’d do differently from George Bush when it comes to the economy.

John McCain just doesn’t get it. Think back to what he said seven weeks ago today on September 15th.

That day, more than 5,000 jobs were lost and more than 7,000 homes were foreclosed on. The day before, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said we were in a “once in a century” crisis.

And yet, on that day, despite our economic crisis, John McCain actually repeated something he’s said at least sixteen times on this campaign. He said – and I quote – “the fundamentals of our economy are strong.”

Well, North Carolina, you and I know that’s not only fundamentally wrong, it also sums up his out-of-touch, on-your-own economic philosophy. It’s a philosophy that says we should give a $700,000 tax cut to the average Fortune 500 CEO and $300 billion to the same Wall Street banks that got us into this mess. It’s a philosophy that says we shouldn’t give a penny of relief to more than 100 million middle-class Americans. And it’s a philosophy that will end when I am President of the United States of America.

Look, we’ve tried it John McCain’s way. We’ve tried it George Bush’s way. Deep down, Senator McCain knows that, which is why his campaign said that “if we keep talking about the economy, we’re going to lose.” That’s why I’m talking about the economy. That’s why he’s spent these last weeks calling me every name in the book. Because that’s how you play the game in Washington. When you can’t win on the strength of your ideas, you make a big election about small things.

So I expect we’re going to see more of that in the next twenty-four hours. More of the slash and burn, say-anything, do-anything politics that’s calculated to divide and distract; to tear us apart instead of bringing us together. Well, that’s not the kind of politics the American people need right now.

North Carolina, at this moment, in this election, we have the chance to do more than just beat back this kind of politics in the short-term. We can end it once and for all. We can prove that the one thing more powerful than the politics of anything goes is the will and determination of the American people. We can change this country. Yes we can.

We can prove that we are more than a collection of Red States and Blue States – we are the United States of America. That’s who we are, and that’s the country we need to be right now.

North Carolina, I know these are difficult times. But I also know that we have faced difficult times before. The American story has never been about things coming easy – it’s been about rising to the moment when the moment was hard. It’s about rejecting fear and division for unity of purpose. That’s how we’ve overcome war and depression. That’s how we’ve won great struggles for civil rights and women’s rights and workers’ rights. And that’s how we’ll write the next great chapter in the American story.

Understand, if we want to meet the challenges of this moment, we need to get beyond the old ideological debates and divides between left and right. We don’t need bigger government or smaller government. We need a better government – a more competent government – a government that upholds the values we hold in common as Americans.

The choice in this election isn’t between tax cuts and no tax cuts. It’s about whether you believe we should only reward wealth, or whether we should also reward the work and workers who create it. I will give a tax break to 95% of Americans who work every day and get taxes taken out of their paychecks every week. And I’ll help pay for this by asking the folks who are making more than $250,000 a year to go back to the tax rate they were paying in the 1990s. No matter what Senator McCain may claim, here are the facts – if you make under $250,000, you will not see your taxes increase by a single dime – not your income taxes, not your payroll taxes, not your capital gains taxes. Nothing. Because the last thing we should do in this economy is raise taxes on the middle-class.

When it comes to jobs, the choice in this election is not between putting up a wall around America or standing by and doing nothing. The truth is, we won’t be able to bring back every job that we’ve lost, but that doesn’t mean we should follow John McCain’s plan to keep promoting unfair trade agreements and keep giving tax breaks to corporations that send American jobs overseas. I will end those breaks as President, and give them to companies that create jobs here in the United States of America. We’ll create two million new jobs by rebuilding our crumbling roads, and bridges, and schools. I will invest $15 billion a year in renewable sources of energy – in wind and solar power and the next generation of biofuels. We’ll invest in clean coal technology and find ways to safely harness nuclear power. And we’ll create five million new energy jobs over the next decade – jobs that pay well and can’t be outsourced.

When it comes to health care, we don’t have to choose between a government-run health care system and the unaffordable one we have now. If you already have health insurance, the only thing that will change under my plan is that we will lower premiums. If you don’t have health insurance you’ll be able to get the same kind of health insurance that Members of Congress get for themselves. And as someone who watched his own mother spend the final months of her life arguing with insurance companies because they claimed her cancer was a pre-existing condition and didn’t want to pay for treatment, I will stop insurance companies from discriminating against those who are sick and need care most. That’s the change we need. That’s why I’m running for President of the United States.

When it comes to giving every child a world-class education, the choice is not between more money and more reform – because our schools need both. As President, I will recruit an army of new teachers, pay them more, and give them more support. But I will also demand higher standards and more accountability from our teachers and our schools. And I will make a deal with every American who has the drive and the will but not the money to go to college: if you commit to serving your community or your country, we will make sure you can afford your tuition.

And when it comes to keeping this country safe, we don’t have to choose between retreating from the world and fighting a war without end in Iraq. It’s time to stop spending $10 billion a month in Iraq while the Iraqi government sits on a huge surplus. As President, I will end this war. I will ask the Iraqi government to step up for their future, and I will finally finish the fight against bin Laden and the al Qaeda terrorists who attacked us on 9/11. I will never hesitate to defend this nation. And I will make sure our servicemen and women have the best training and equipment when they deploy into combat, and the care and benefits they have earned when they come home. That’s what we owe our veterans. That’s what I’ll do as President.

I won’t stand here and pretend that any of this will be easy – especially now. The cost of this economic crisis, and the cost of the war in Iraq, means that Washington will have to tighten its belt and put off spending on things we don’t need. As President, I will go through the federal budget, line-by-line, ending programs that we don’t need and making the ones we do need work better and cost less.

But as I’ve said from the day we began this journey, the change we need won’t come from government alone. It will come from each of us doing our part in our own lives and our own communities. It will come from each of us looking after ourselves, our families, and our fellow citizens.

Yes, government must lead the way on energy independence, but each of us must do our part to make our homes and our businesses more efficient. Yes, we must put more money into our schools, but government can’t be that parent who turns off the TV and makes a child do their homework. We need a return to responsibility and a return to civility. Yes, we can argue and debate our positions passionately, but all of us must summon the strength and grace to bridge our differences and unite in common effort – black, white, Hispanic, Asian, Native American; Democrat and Republican, young and old, rich and poor, gay and straight, disabled or not.

In this election, we cannot afford the same political games and tactics that are being used to pit us against one another and make us afraid of one another.

Despite what our opponents may claim, there are no real or fake parts of this country. There is no city or town that is more pro-America than anywhere else – we are one nation, all of us proud, all of us patriots. The men and women who serve on our battlefields may be Democrats and Republicans and Independents, but they have fought together and bled together and some died together under the same proud flag. They have not served a Red America or a Blue America – they have served the United States of America.

It won’t be easy, North Carolina. It won’t be quick. But you and I know that it is time to come together and change this country. Some of you may be cynical and fed up with politics. You have every right to be. But despite all of this, I ask of you what has been asked of Americans throughout our history.

I ask you to believe – not just in my ability to bring about change, but in yours.

I know this change is possible. Because I have seen it over the last twenty-one months. Because in this campaign, I have had the privilege to witness what is best in America. I’ve seen it in the faces of the men and women I’ve met at countless rallies and town halls across the country, men and women who speak of their struggles but also of their hopes and dreams.

I still remember the email that a woman named Robyn sent me after I met her in Ft. Lauderdale. Sometime after our event, her son nearly went into cardiac arrest, and was diagnosed with a heart condition that could only be treated with a procedure that cost tens of thousands of dollars. Her insurance company refused to pay, and their family just didn’t have that kind of money.

In her email, Robyn wrote, “I ask only this of you – on the days where you feel so tired you can’t think of uttering another word to the people, think of us. When those who oppose you have you down, reach deep and fight back harder.”

North Carolina, that’s what hope is.

That’s what kept some of our parents and grandparents going when times were tough. What led them to say, “Maybe I can’t go to college, but if I save a little bit each week, my child can. Maybe I can’t have my own business but if I work really hard my child can open up one of her own.” It’s what led those who could not vote to say “if I march and organize, maybe my child or grandchild can run for President someday.”

That’s what hope is – that thing inside that insists, despite all evidence to the contrary, that there are better days ahead. If we’re willing to work for it. If we’re willing to shed our fears. If we’re willing to reach deep inside ourselves when we’re tired, and come back fighting harder.

Don’t believe for a second this election is over. Don’t think for a minute that power concedes. We have to work like our future depends on it in the next twenty-four hours, because it does.

But I know this, North Carolina, the time for change has come. We have a righteous wind at our back.

And if in these final hours, you will knock on some doors for me, and make some calls for me, and go to barackobama.com and find out where to vote. If you will stand with me, and fight by my side, and cast your ballot for me, then I promise you this – we will not just win North Carolina, we will not just win this election, but together, we will change this country and we will change the world. Thank you, God bless you, and may God bless America.

Morning Buzz: OMG, the youth vote

Tucked away in the early N.C. voting numbers is encouraging news for a maligned voting group.

Thus far, 35 percent of registered voters ages 18-24 have cast a ballot in the state. That's better than a couple of age groups and worse than a couple of age groups, but it's much different than previous years, when young voters lagged far behind everyone else in voter turnout.

In 2004, about 47 percent of young American voters cast a ballot in the general election - 17 percent behind the country as a whole. And that was an improvement over the 2000 election.

Young voters trend Democratic, of course, so the turnout in a tight N.C. race is good news for Barack Obama. Not a coincidence that he's picked UNC Charlotte - the largest campus in a county he badly needs - as his choice for an N.C. rally. Will the students - and other young voters - continue to respond?

Tell us what you think.

Your morning buzz:

Although lines here will likely not be unusually long, there's worry about high turnout bringing voting difficulties in other states, the New York Times reports.

NYT conservative columnist Bill Kristol says liberals shouldn't worry.

The Wall Street Journal asks: Is Georgia in play?

Ohio - still coveted, still close, the Washington Post reports.

Historically, candidates go positive in an election's final days. Not this time, the Post reports.

Politico says McCain campaign manager Rick Davis sought to put the best face on his candidate's outlook.

The Obama campaign is pleased - but superstitious, Politico reports.

Finally, an outside take - from Time - on the N.C. race for U.S. Senate.

Early N.C. voting - a revealing number

Are Barack Obama's voter registration efforts resulting in actual votes?

Skeptics of Obama's ground game have noted that, historically, newly registered voters often don't make it to the voting booth. And while early voting records have been set around the country, the numbers haven't revealed how many of those voters are enthusiastic - but previously registered - voters.

But with early N.C. voting completed Saturday, 466,000 of 869,000 new voters (people who registered to vote since Jan 1, 2008) have cast ballots. That's a startling new voter turnout rate of 54 percent, with Election Day yet to come. Previously registered N.C. voters are turning out at a 40 percent rate.

The party breakdown of the new voters: Democrats 53 percent, Republicans 21 percent, Unaffiliated 25 percent. Unlike older voters who sometimes change party with their votes, if not their party registration, these new voters will likely vote whichever party they declared when they registered this year. 

Republican officials rightly note that their vaunted get-out-the-vote efforts are geared toward Election Day. They'll need a surge Tuesday to overcome what seems like an early voting deficit. 

The overall N.C. early voting numbers:

More than 2.5 million voters participated in early voting this year, more than doubling the previous high of 1.1 million in 2004.

Party breakdown (corrected - thanks to alert reader): Democrats 51.5 percent, Republicans, 30.1 percent and Unaffiliateds, 18.4 percent. (For perspective, here's the 2004 breakdown: D - 48.6 percent, R-37.4 percent, U - 14.1 percent.)

Men and women voted at about the same rate as 2004, with women casting 56.3 percent of early ballots and men 42.9 percent.

Blacks made up 26 percent of early voters, with whites at just below 70 percent.

Many thanks to the Observer's Ted Mellnik for sifting the state data to provide these numbers.

Obama at UNC Charlotte - parking

The Obama campaign just sent over information on public parking, which is not abundant at UNC Charlotte.

A shuttle bus will be running from Verizon Wireless Amphitheatre, 707 Pavilion Blvd., beginning at 1 p.m.

Doors open to the Obama rally at 3 p.m. for the 5:30 p.m. event, which will be held at the Hayes Recreation Fields in the northwest corner of campus. The event is free and open to the public.

About those long voting lines Tuesday...

Should N.C. voters be fretting about the possibility of horribly long lines on Election Day?

The math says no. 

In the 2004 general election, 3.55 million voters cast ballots in North Carolina, with 1.1 million of those coming in early voting, according to the N.C. Board of Elections. That left 2.45 million N.C. residents voting on election day four years ago. 

In 2008, state officials expect a turnout of 70 percent - or 4.5 million - of the state's 6.2 million registered voters. Early N.C. voters have cast almost 2.6 million (with a handful of counties left to report this morning), leaving an expected 1.9 million voters casting ballots Tuesday. That's a half-million fewer Election Day voters than four years ago. 

In Mecklenburg County, about 326,000 voters cast ballots in the 2004 general election. About 107,000 of those ballots came during early voting, and 218,000 voters went to the polls on Election Day. 

A 70 percent turnout in Mecklenburg this year would mean 438,000 people voting overall. We are on pace for about 215,000 to 220,000 early votes in the county. That leaves 218,000 to 223,000 people expected to vote on Tuesday. Same as 2004.

Your caveats: Turnout at individual precincts will vary. Voting machines may malfunction. Turnout could rise to 80 percent. But even if it did, it's doubtful we'll see many stories of unusually long lines county-wide.

So vote. 

McCain and Obama: The optimism update

(Updated, 6:55 p.m.) Why John McCain has reason to be optimistic heading into the final weekend of the election:

Pennsylvania: A new survey this morning from respected pollster Rasmussen shows him trailing by just four points. Rasmussen had McCain trailing by seven points five days ago - a steady increase reflected in other polling. 

Another Pennsylvania poll from Muhlenburg College out this morning shows Obama leading by eight, but Muhlenburg's is a tracking poll that gives an average of five days of calling. In the past three days, Obama's lead has gone from 13 to 10 to 8, signaling that the margin of the most recent night of polling is significantly less than eight - perhaps right about where Rasmussen has it. 

Clearly, the tightening of the race there is reflecting McCain's and Sarah Palin's attentiveness to the state this week. Is it also signaling a surge of undecideds and iffy Obama voters there moving McCain's way?

Whatever the reason, a Pennsylvania victory opens the map up for McCain. 

(Update, 6:52 p.m.: Pollster ARG has Obama up six in Pennsylvania in a poll released Saturday afternoon.) 

Close battleground races: The latest polls have McCain tied or narrowly trailing in these states - Missouri, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana. If McCain wins those states and Pennsylvania, he doesn't need the western states (Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada) that seem to be slipping away from him. 

Yes, winning all six plus Pennsylvania is a tall order, but each by itself is very winnable. Plus, if Iowa is "dead even," as McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said Friday, a win there could give McCain some flexibility.

Why Barack Obama has reason to be optimistic heading into the weekend:

Those same battleground races: Obama needs one - Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Indiana, Virginia or North Carolina. He is leading - narrowly, yes, but leading - in polls in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. He is even in Missouri and Indiana. One is all he needs if the western states hold for him the way most expect. 

Georgia: Early voting concluded yesterday - and no one is quite sure exactly how close the race is heading into election day. Polls this week have McCain leading by 1 to 5 points, but the percentage of blacks voting in early turnout was a stunning 35% - six points higher than the ratio of black registered Georgia voters to overall Georgia RVs. If that number is at 32-33% when the polls close Nov. 4, it's anybody's race.   

And Pennsylvania? You can be sure that Obama didn't get a text from campaign manager David Plouffe this morning saying "OMG - PA.!!!" The campaign has been doing its own polling there each day. 

And yet, as of this morning, Obama has no events scheduled in the state before election day. His last visit there was four days ago. So Obama either is confident he can hold on in Pennsylvania, or he's deciding that he'll roll the dice on a four-point-or-so lead there and focus his attention on equally close (or closer) races in other states. 

Feeling optimistic, anyone? Tell us what you think.

Obama in Charlotte - details

Barack Obama will be appearing at the Hayes Recreation Fields on the UNC Charlotte campus Monday, the campaign announced this evening.

The event begins at 5:30 p.m.; doors open at 3 p.m.

Here's a campus map. The Hayes fields are located in the northwest corner of the campus. 

Campus parking is limited, but shuttle services will be provided. The event is free and open to the public; tickets are not required. Members of the public are encouraged to RSVP and get details about shuttle services at www.nc.barackobama.com. 

(Update, 8 p.m.: Shuttle details are not up on the Obama site yet.) 

Obama's visit will be his eighth to North Carolina, and this latest stop affirms the state's tossup status. Republican VP nominee Sarah Palin is appearing at a rally in Raleigh this evening.