New Dole ad: Godless, part 2

U.S. Sen Elizabeth Dole, her poll numbers plummeting, has released a second "Godless" ad - this one telling voters she's questioning challenger Kay Hagan's judgment, not her faith.

Dole also filed a motion in Wake County Superior Court to dismiss as frivolous a defamation lawsuit Hagan filed in response to Dole's original "Godless" ad.

That controversial ad has thrust the Dole-Hagan race into the state and national spotlight. A new CNN poll today has Hagan, a Democrat, leading Dole, 52-43. A week ago, the race was even in polls.

Dole's ad today stresses that Hagan attended a fundraiser last month in Boston hosted by two members of the Godless Americans political action committee.

The new ad:






The fundraiser in question was held in honor of Hagan by Sen. John Kerry and other Democratic supporters. The event was co-hosted by 35 people at the home of Woody Kaplan, who is listed on the advisory board for a group called the Godless Americans Political Action Committee.

Dole's first ad, released earlier this week, concluded: “Godless Americans and Kay Hagan. She hid from cameras. Took godless money. What did Hagan promise in return?” A voice that sounds like Hagan's says: "There is no God."







Hagan, who called the ad "pathetic," said the voice at the end of the ad was not hers. Hagan, an elder at First Presbyterian Church at Greensboro, told reporters that she has taught Sunday School there and gone on youth missions.

Hagan released a response ad Thursday:

Doonesbury picks a winner (but we don't)

Garry Trudeau has submitted his strip for Wednesday morning newspapers across the country. The strip is set in Iraq, where Doonesbury's military characters are gathered around a TV when an Obama victory is announced. Our guess is about half of you will find it funny.

The Observer won't be running the strip Wednesday, says features editor Mike Weinstein. Our Wednesday features section goes to press on Monday night, before the election. If John McCain wins on Tuesday, the Doonesbury strip would seem odd - perhaps confusing - although it would still be funny to half of you (but not the same half.)

Trudeau's syndicate has sent in a substitute strip - a rerun from earlier this year - that we'll use.

State of the race - the campaigns speak

The McCain and Obama campaigns held dueling conference calls this morning. There's some, ahem, disagreement about where the race stands at the moment.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe went first, and he had news: The campaign is going up with ads this weekend in three states: Georgia, North Dakota, and ... Arizona?

Yes, Obama has tightened the race in McCain's home state, and Plouffe said the Obama camp thinks its doing well Arizona's Latino and suburban voters. But advertising there is likely more about the strategy of symbolism - a message to voters that the campaign is so resonant that it's moving into on the opponent's backyard.

Plouffe felt good about the number of ballots already cast in states like Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada. The election, he said, might be nearly half over before Nov 4.

He also disputed a notion from the McCain camp and others this week that undecided voters will move heavily toward the Republican on election day. Plouffe said the campaign's internal numbers show something different - although he didn't get into specifics - and he noted that get-out-the-vote efforts could help bring Obama a different kind of late decider.

The overall tone: cautiously confident.

Not so fast, said McCain campaign director Rick Davis. "We're pretty jazzed up about what we're seeing," he said in a late-morning call.

Davis said McCain has had the best 10 days of polling since the conventions, and that internal polls show even better numbers than what the public is seeing. Exhibit No. 1: Iowa - which the McCain camp has as "dead even," Davis says.

That might explain what we wondered earlier about Obama visiting Iowa today - and Sarah Palin on Monday. (Plouffe, however, said the Obama campaign was strong in Iowa.)

McCain pollster Bill Mcinturff said he expects a "very, very close" election Tuesday, despite what public polls are showing. Mcinturff said those polls are likely miscalculating how many Democrats and Republicans will turn out on Tuesday. While pollsters are showing 8, 12, and 15 percent more Democrats than Republicans, history shows that number to be less than five on election days.

McCain officials also noted that early voting totals favoring Democrats are deceptive, in part because the campaign is actively turning out conservative Democrats to vote. The campaign also is confident about its get-out-the-vote efforts, which have been formidable in past elections.

The overall tone: optimistic.

Tell us what you think.

Morning Buzz: Tea leaves, revisited

We told you Monday we'd be keeping our eye on a handful of questions this week. We have. Your answers:

Where will John McCain spend his money? Everywhere he can. McCain has decided to flood battlegrounds states with ads to match Barack Obama's this weekend. But doing so forces some difficult decisions. Because McCain has limited money on hand, the advertising buy means his campaign will cut back on its get-out-the-vote efforts, The Washington Post reports.

That means more staffers will have to pay their own way to travel to states for the 72-hour Republican GOTV surge, which pundits and party officials credit for helping George Bush get elected in 2000 and 2004. The RNC will help offset some cutbacks; expect McCain staffers to pony up, too, and pay their way. The advertising is that important.

Where will Barack Obama spend his weekend? Obama is scheduling like a confident candidate. Yes, he's spending a full Sunday in critical Ohio, plus at least one stop Monday in Virginia. But he also is appearing in Indiana and Missouri, indicating he may be thinking big victory.

Curiously, Obama is in Iowa today. At first glance, the choice seems to carry the kind of symbolism Obama likes - finishing up in the place that launched his campaign in the caucuses. But Sarah Palin also will hold an Iowa rally - on Monday. Are the campaigns seeing tighter numbers there than public polling suggests?

One very notable exception thus far to the weekend Obama schedule: Pennsylvania.

The McCain campaign will be emphasizing Florida, Pennsylvania and Virginia this weekend, with Palin also stopping by Raleigh on Saturday.

A note: The News & Observer is reporting that, according to a local source, Obama may be visiting Charlotte on Monday. We're hearing similar murmurs, except that the visitor might be someone else in the campaign. No word from the Obama folks. (A late clue, buried in a New York Times story this morning on Obama: "On Monday, he is set to dash through Florida, North Carolina and back here to Virginia.")

Polls in four states: Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Pennsylvania. Numbers in Ohio and Virginia have been similar lately - ranging from a 4-9 point Obama lead, with recent polls indicating a tightening race.

Colorado also has been showing a 4-9 point Obama lead, but late-in-the-week polls have been on the upper end of that range, suggesting a more comfortable election night there for the Democrat.

Pennsylvania - no one is quite sure. Most polls have shown a double-digit Obama lead throughout the week, but respected pollster Rasmussen released a poll Wednesday showing McCain narrowing the lead to seven points, and Mason-Dixon put the Obama lead at just four yesterday. McCain insiders are telling reporters that Pennsylvania is a single-digit race - likely closer to Rasmussen's margin than Mason-Dixon's at the moment.

If Colorado tilts toward Obama in four days, McCain will likely have to win the other three, along with states like Missouri, Indiana and, yes, North Carolina, that he expected all along.

We'll keep watching. Tell us what you think.

Your morning buzz:

The real potential winner on election day - lawyers, says the New York Times.

If Obama wins on Tuesday, he can credit his performance in the debates, the Washington Post's Robert Kaiser writes.

Politico answers the question so many political writers get: Why don't you write about (insert rumor here)?

In Missouri, it's busy, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.

Can early voting turn the Florida election? Time explores.

Hagan files lawsuit against Dole

Kay Hagan, as promised, has taken legal action against U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole for a television ad linking Hagan to atheist advocates.

Hagan, a Democrat running in a tight race for Dole's Senate seat, filed a lawsuit in Wake County Superior Court this afternoon. The suit asks for damages for Dole's production and broadcast of "an intentionally defamatory advertisement."

Hagan had given Dole until noon today to stop running the ad, which criticized Hagan's attendance at a Boston fundraiser last month hosted by a member of the Godless Americans political action committee.

The ad concluded: “Godless Americans and Kay Hagan. She hid from cameras. Took godless money. What did Hagan promise in return?” A voice that sounded like Hagan's says: "There is no God."



The September fundraiser cited in the ad was held in honor of Hagan in Boston by Sen. John Kerry and other Democratic supporters. The event was co-hosted by 35 people at the home of Woody Kaplan, who is listed on the advisory board for a group called the Godless Americans Political Action Committee.

Hagan, who called the ad "pathetic" yesterday, said the voice at the end of the ad was not hers. Hagan, an elder at First Presbyterian Church at Greensboro, told reporters that she has taught Sunday School there and gone on youth missions.

"Like her time in the U.S. Senate, Elizabeth Dole has made her choices here, and that's her decision," said Hagan campaign communications director Colleen Flanagan. "But it's equally our decision not to allow someone to slander Kay Hagan, impugn her character, her convictions and her faith, without any consequences."

The day in N.C. polls: So. Close.

(Updated, 5:05 p.m.) Good news for Democrats in the latest N.C. polls from Civitas and Time/CNN. After seeing leads shrink or disappear in the past week, the numbers have stabilized - and possibly improved - for Barack Obama and Kay Hagan.

The latest from Civitas in Raleigh, just released:

President:

Barack Obama – 47%
John McCain – 46%
Bob Barr – 3%
Undecided – 5%

U.S. Senate:

Kay Hagan – 45%
Elizabeth Dole – 43%
Chris Cole – 4%
Undecided – 7%

N.C. governor:

Bev Perdue – 45%
Pat McCrory – 43%
Mike Munger – 3%
Undecided – 9%

Also today, from Time/CNN (607 LV, 4% margin of error): Obama 52, McCain 46.

(Update, 5:05 p.m., from Rasmussen, 1,000 LV, 3% MOE: Obama 50, McCain 48.)

Another poll, from National Journal, has Obama leading 48-44, but that poll has a very small sample, 402, and surveys only registered voters.

For Civitas, the margin of error for each poll is +/- 4.2 percentage points, which means that every race is within the margin of error. “All three races are too close to call,” said Francis De Luca, Executive Director of the Civitas Institute. “With very few days remaining until the election, two big factors will decide the outcome of all three races – who turns out to vote and which way the remaining undecided voters break.”

We'll update with a new Rasmussen presidential poll for N.C. , due at about 5 p.m. Earlier today, Rasmussen had Hagan leading Dole 52-46 in the race for Dole's U.S. Senate seat. The survey was taken Wednesday as an angry Hagan blasted Dole for the "Godless Ad," which noted Hagan's attendance at a fundraiser hosted by a member of the Godless Americans political action committee.

(Civitas methodology: 600 registered voters who have voted in either the 2002, 2004 or 2006 general election or were newly registered voters since 2006. The voters were interviewed using live callers.)

A "godless" drop? Dole falls behind Hagan

Is Elizabeth Dole paying for her ad linking Kay Hagan to atheist advocates?

A new Rasmussen poll released this afternoon shows Hagan leading Dole, 52-46, in the race for Dole's U.S. Senate seat. The lead is the largest Hagan has had in any poll - save one - this month. Recent polls had shown Dole tightening the race to 3-4 points, with one showing a two-point Dole lead.

Rasmussen conducted the full survey yesterday as an angry Hagan blasted Dole for an ad criticizing Hagan's attendance at a fundraiser hosted by a member of the Godless Americans political action committee:

The ad concluded: “Godless Americans and Kay Hagan. She hid from cameras. Took godless money. What did Hagan promise in return?” A voice that sounds like Hagan's says: "There is no God."



The September fundraiser cited in the ad was held in honor of Hagan in Boston by Sen. John Kerry and other Democratic supporters. The event was co-hosted by 35 people at the home of Woody Kaplan, who is listed on the advisory board for a group called the Godless Americans Political Action Committee.

Hagan, who called the ad "pathetic," said the voice at the end of the ad was not hers. Hagan, an elder at First Presbyterian Church at Greensboro, told reporters that she has taught Sunday School there and gone on youth missions.

Hagan also threatened legal action if the Dole campaign did not pull the ad by Noon today. The Dole campaign said Wednesday it had no intention of doing so. No word yet from the Hagan campaign on the deadline passing.

(Update, 2 p.m.: Hagan campaign spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan says: "We are moving forward with our legal options.")

N.C. early voting hours extended Saturday

North Carolina is extending early voting by four hours on Saturday, the Associated Press is reporting.

Says the AP:

The State Board of Elections ordered Thursday that all 100 counties in North Carolina must keep early voting sites open until 5 p.m. Saturday, the final day of early voting, unless local officials unanimously decide it's unnecessary.

In an emergency meeting, the board unanimously agreed to extend Saturday early voting hours after Mecklenburg and Guilford counties sought permission to keep the sites from closing at 1 p.m. as scheduled.

The decision to alter the early voting schedule highlights the remarkable turnout and long lines seen across the surprise swing state since early voting began two weeks ago. More than 1.7 million people -- or 30 percent of registered voters -- cast a ballot at one-stop sites through Wednesday night.

Larry Leake, the Democratic chairman of the state board, at first proposed allowing counties to decide whether they wanted to stay open. But Charles Winfree, a Republican member of the board, questioned whether county boards controlled by Democrats could be manipulated by those seeking office.

"I'm concerned that some counties will and some counties won't and that will be manipulated by the campaigns -- they will hold them open later in Democratic counties and then will close them early in Republican counties," Winfree said.

So the board agreed to extend the mandate to all 100 counties, allowing them to opt out only if all the Democratic and Republican members of county election boards agree.

Early voting has been a sensitive subject for the GOP this year. Registered Democrats are voting early at far higher rates, drawn in part by the party's presidential nominee Barack Obama and his campaign's extensive effort to turn voters out to the polls before Election Day.

In both Mecklenburg and Guilford counties, the lone Republican member of the counties' election boards halted plans to extending voting hours earlier this week. The two Democrats on each panel sought the change.

"There are people who cannot vote on Saturday because they can't get there by 1 p.m.," said James Turner, a Democratic board member in Guilford County. "If we want to get a vote from any of these people, we need to extend the voting hours."

The GOP has also been skeptical about altering early vote plans since the Cumberland County board agreed two weeks ago to add capacity to accommodate an expected crush of voters following an Obama campaign event.

State party chairwoman Linda Daves said at the time that the Republicans support more capacity, except when it comes in coordination with a partisan event.

Obama's show, graded

Our favorite political professor, Wake Forest's Allan Louden, is stopping by one more time with a a critique of Barack Obama's half-hour commercial last evening.

Louden, a debate scholar and political communications professor at Wake, has informed and entertained Ballot readers since the primaries with his analysis of ads, speeches and debates. His final grade goes to a wholly different sort of pitch - a 30-minute infomercial.

Says the professor:

“We interrupt our normal program to bring you a special featuring Barack Obama.” It just so happens that the normal programming in N.C. these days is an onslaught of Obama ads and coverage of state-stops by Barack and Michelle.

The mediated political landscape - wall-to-wall Obama - takes away some of the “special” from the Obama special. In our metro paper this morning, coverage of Obama’s infomercial was pushed from the front page by coverage featuring, you guessed it, Obama.

My sense is that the film will disappear into the clamor of campaign coverage, not long remembered for influencing campaign results. In the current climate, it was more about reinforcing an established brand, making comfortable a vote for America’s first minority president.



The program itself, however, was radiantly presented, unarguably persuasive for anyone who watched with an open mind.

It would be justifiable to point out that there was nothing new in Obama’s 4 million dollar prime-time commercial, yet the message was all about the new. Change was the motif, but a change in service of the American we aspire to become, garnished with the American we nostalgically remember.

Obama, as narrator, displayed little pretence of royalty, opting more for rhetorical acts of identification. He introduced a progression of representative middle-America families and comfortably sat at their kitchen tables and shared stories of parallel relatives. The film was less about Obama the candidate and more about him as embodiment of what American could become—One America.

The quasi-documentary was pastel, soft, safe, but also aimed at policy, especially health and jobs. It was Obama’s “convention film” in the tradition of Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America,” the archetype of winning candidate films. The story, from a narrative perspective, was coherent and quiescently American.

The half-hour infomercial has been lauded as something new in political advertising, yet purchasing a half hour to address the voters was historically a common practice through the 90s. Most were not memorable, trumped by events and timing.

Obama’s commercial has one technical trick that added drama. The half hour concluded with a live cut from a rally in Florida, itself not particularly additive, but enticed viewers to stay-tuned to see how this innovation would work.

Grade: A.

Managed to be over-the-top without being over-the-top.

Morning Buzz: The Obama show reaction

It was, well, nice. Not goose-bumpy or electrifying. But well-crafted, with storytelling and policy and he's-a-leader-and-a-good-guy testimonials - the Democratic convention softened and restaged into 30 minutes.

The Obama show won't swing GOP voters his way on Nov. 4, but it wasn't supposed to. At this stage of the election, it's biggest purpose was to reassure the iffy - to keep his current polling at or near 50 percent.

Did it work? The reviews:

Tom Shales, the Washington Post's TV guy, calls it the "feel better" movie of the year.

The NYT's Jim Rutenberg called it a risk, but said it served a "safe, workmanlike purpose."

Slate's Christopher Beam says it didn't say a whole lot new, but he's now convinced an Obama presidency would have great camera angles.

The L.A. Times said it had many benefits for Obama.

Finally - we always appreciate a good line, and the best may be from Tucker Bounds, McCain spokesman: "As anyone who has bought anything from an infomercial knows, the sales-job is always better than the product."

Tell us what you think.

Your morning buzz:

The Orlando Sentinel on Bill Clinton and Obama, who shared a stage last night in Florida - "like having Elvis and Bruce Springsteen on the same ticket."

In Florida, blacks are turning out in record numbers. Young people, not so much, the Sentinel reports.

Republicans complain to Politico that McCain isn't doing more to help them in their tight races.

An election quiz, from Gail Collins of the New York Times.

Slot machines and voting machines? All part of the charm of early voting, the NYT writes.

Newsweek's Andrew Romano on Bucks County - the place John McCain needs most in Pennsylvania.

The political winner of the day is...

Obama goes prime time. McCain goes on Larry King. The Ballot breaks down the day. 

The words: The Obama video. Not too schmaltzy. Not too dry. A strong mix of people, policy, and vision all designed to produce this message: Yes, he's OK. McCain, meanwhile, says 'no, he's not' (in several ways) to Larry King. The big question: Who was watching? Edge: Unknown.  

The numbers: National tracking polls tighten some more. Battlegrounds offer good news for Obama in New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado. McCain gets good news in Missouri. Florida remains very close, Ohio slightly for Obama. Pennsylvania seems not close at all - or is it? Edge: Obama. 

The lasting image: Rashid Khalidi - another questionable Obama associate? CNN says McCain accusation is an old story and false. Will it still sow doubt? Edge: None. 

The winner: 

No clear win here, and McCain needs them. The infomercial is not fantastic, not bad. Did it change minds? Probably not. Did it reach some undecideds? Maybe so. But it controlled the day, giving McCain one less to change the minds he needs.  

The Obama ad Democrats have waited for...

Since the August day John McCain chose Sarah Palin to be his running mate, Democrats have urged/demanded/begged the Obama campaign to go after the Alaska gov.

But aside from a biting quote - quickly retracted - the day Palin was picked, the campaign has largely decided on a different course - let Palin disqualify herself. (If your perspective is Republican, you'd suggest the strategy was more "let the media disqualify her.")

Today, a slight but significant change.

An ad released this morning features three John McCain quotes, put to music with no voiceover: 'I’m going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated.' Wall Street Journal, 11/26/05. 'The issue of economics is not something I’ve understood as well as I should.' Boston Globe Political Intelligence, 12/18/07. 'I might have to rely on a vice president that I select” for expertise on economic issues.' GOP Debate, 11/28/07.

The words "His choice?" appear, then...



Palin winks.

The campaign says the ad will run in key states across the country. The McCain camp responds (to Time's Mark Halperin): “When Barack Obama ignores Governor Palin's expertise with energy, a principle economic challenge of our generation, it proves why he can't be trusted to deliver energy independence or get this economy back on track.”

A VP attack ad on the second to last day of October? No, this isn't your typical election.

Tell us what you think. Also, are you an undecided voter? We'd love to talk to you. Email Observer reporter Jim Morrill here.

Obama: What else can McCain call me?

In Raleigh today, Barack Obama dotted his stump speech with a few new money lines, noting that John McCain has been calling him lots of names recently.

"Lately, he's called me a socialist for wanting to roll back the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans so we can finally give tax relief to the middle class," Obama said. "I don't know what's next. By the end of the week, he'll be accusing me of being a secret communist because I shared my toys in kindergarten."

Obama spoke in front of 25,000 at Halifax Mall in downtown Raleigh, said Capt. Everett Clendenin of the State Highway Patrol.

The News & Observer's Ryan Teague Beckwith reports from the rally:

Stressing that the election will be in six days, the Democratic presidential candidate said that it would be a chance to "turn the page" on "failed policies from George Bush."

"In six days, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope," he said.

On more practical matters, he also stressed early voting and reminded voters that they must mark the presidential race separately from the straight-ticket option.

Hagan on Dole: "How dare she attack my faith?"

An angry Kay Hagan slammed Sen. Elizabeth Dole moments ago for this new ad linking Hagan to a group that advocates for atheists.





Hagan, a Democrat, and Dole, a Republican, are in a tight race for Dole's U.S. Senate seat.

Says the ad: “A leader of the Godless Americans PAC recently held a secret fundraiser in Kay Hagan's honor.” The spot shows shows clips of the group’s members talking about their atheist beliefs.

The ad continues: “Godless Americans and Kay Hagan. She hid from cameras. Took godless money. What did Hagan promise in return?” A voice that sounds like Hagan's says: "There is no God."

Hagan, on a conference call with reporters, called the ad "fabricated" and "pathetic." Hagan said her lawyers have sent a cease-and-desist notice to Dole.

"I am appalled at Elizabeth Dole's vile tactics," said Hagan. "This is politics of the worst kind."

Hagan said the voice at the end of the ad was not hers. Hagan, an elder at First Presbyterian Church at Greensboro, told reporters that she has taught Sunday School there and gone on youth missions.


The ad was based on Hagan’s attendance last month at a fundraiser in the Boston home of two advisers of the Godless Americans’ political action committee. Hagan said Wednesday the fundraiser was hosted by 40 people, including a U.S. ambassador.

"I had never heard of the Godless Americans PAC until Elizabeth Dole sent out a press release attacking me," she said. The Dole campaign, in an email this morning, says it sent out a press release about the fundraiser's hosts three weeks before the event.

When asked about a Senate campaign that has featured negative ads from both candidates, Hagan said her ads confront Dole on her positions and votes.

"What she's doing right now is slandering me personally and my character," Hagan said.

The Dole campaign said it will respond soon.

(Update: The Observer's Lisa Zagaroli reports that the Dole campaign says the ad was fair game in part because Hagan has attacked Dole for being "in the pocket of big oil" just because some of her contributors work for energy companies.

"She has got some gall after $18 million that her New York and Washington friends have spent attacking Senator Dole saying all kinds of untrue and ridiculous things and to now say ‘oh, you can’t talk about us and who we are raising money from.’ Heavens," said Dole spokesman Dan McLagan. )

The Obama show - a preview

Barack Obama's 30-minute campaign program airs tonight at 8 p.m. on NBC, Fox, CBS and cable networks.

The campaign is being tight-lipped about the show, but an adviser says the taped program will tell Americans' stories and will feature a live cut-in to Obama, who is scheduled to be at a rally in Florida at the time.

The New York Times got a peek at a one-minute trailer of the program:

The trailer is heavy in strings, flags, presidential imagery and some Americana filmed by Davis Guggenheim, whose father was the campaign documentarian of Robert F. Kennedy. As the screen flashes scenes of suburban lawns, a freight train and Mr. Obama seated at a kitchen table with a group of white, apparently working-class voters, Mr. Obama says: “We’ve seen over the last eight years how decisions by a president can have a profound effect on the course of history and on American lives; much that’s wrong with our country goes back even farther than that.”

The Washington Post reports:

Obama senior adviser David Axelrod did not want to discuss specifics about the broadcast, but said that there is "so much clutter on the air" that doing something novel "gives us a better chance to be heard."

"He'll be able to give greater details about where he wants to lead," Axelrod said.

The "infomercial" is a throwback to an advertising strategy common in the 1950s and 1960s. Ross Perot aired several during the 1992 election.

The McCain campaign has booked their candidate with CNN's Larry King program, to air a half-hour after the Obama program.


Will you be watching either, or both?

Morning Buzz: It's time for predictions

Think you know more than The Ballot? (You know you do. You tell me so every day.)

Now is your opportunity to give us your political winners, instead of reading mine. Play the Observer's Political Pick 'em. Predict who will win in a half-dozen races, including U.S. president and N.C. governor, and tell us how many electoral college votes the winning presidential candidate will receive.

Here's where you play.

Yes, there are prizes:

1) Lunch with yours truly and other members of the Observer's politics team. If that's inconvenient, or if journalists disturb your appetite, we'll mail you a present.

2) A Ballot headline for one hour on the home page of CharlotteObserver.com that reads: "(Winner's name) is a political genius." Show your friends. Take a screenshot. One hour. (We have our credibility to consider.)

You can play anytime between now and Tuesday at 6 p.m.. One entry per person. And no, your picks won't be made public - unless you win.

To warm up - how about sharing some predictions right now? Who will win the presidential race - in N.C. and overall? N.C. gov?

Tell us what you think.

Your morning buzz:

Barack Obama's 30-minute infomercial airs at 8 tonight on major networks. A smart move, say political pundits, but there is a risk, Politico reports.

Both candidates would deepen the national debt if they became president, conservative and liberal analysts tell the New York Times. McCain would lead to a higher deficit, they say.

Sarah Palin will give a policy speech on energy today. The Wall Street Journal previews the content.

Politico's Roger Simon wonders why she and McCain aren't talking about guns.

Newsweek asks: What does Palin believe? A look at her faith.

If election night doesn't have the suspense you crave, Time has several House and Senate races to watch.

Slate asks: If you visit a state, will you get more votes there?

Political winner of the day is...

McCain has momentum. Obama has the clock. Who gets the day? The Ballot breaks it down. 

The words: Obama, changing the conversation a bit, goes with a favorite and raps McCain health care plan as radical in Virginia. McCain tells Fayetteville crowd he'll fight to the finish, but campaign message is scattered today - voter fraud, taxes, foreign oil, Chicago friends. Edge: Obama. 

The numbers: Another reason to ignore the national polls - Obama leads by 2-15 points (although there is some tightening overall). In the battlegrounds, McCain gets good news from Pennsylvania, where he trails by seven, and Nevada, where he tiptoes to within four. Obama is down one in Indiana and Georgia polls, but the bigger news is 7 and 9 point leads in Florida and Ohio. If Obama wins either, bedtime next Tuesday is 11 p.m. or earlier. Edge: Obama.

The lasting image: From rogue to diva to "whack job." McCain aides don't Y  Sarah Palin right now. If the campaign doesn't quiet itself pronto, this could overtake the message. For now... Edge: None.

The winner:

Six days remain. When you're trailing, it's not good enough to offer solid stump speeches for decent crowds. You need to make the media take note of your message. McCain has done so for days. Not today. 

Kissell passes troubled Hayes

Concord's Robin Hayes, reeling from recent remarks about "Liberals hating real Americans," has lost his lead in North Carolina's 8th Congressional District race.

Hayes trails Democrat Larry Kissell 51-46 in a poll released moments ago by Raleigh's Public Policy Polling. In its last NC-8 poll in August, PPP had the incumbent Hayes leading by five points.

Hayes, in a warmup to John McCain's speech Oct. 18 in Concord, told the crowd: "Liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God." (audio with this link.)

The Hayes campaign initially said the congressman denied making the remark, but after being confronted with evidence from media including the Observer, the campaign released a statement acknowledging the remark.

At a debate hosted by the Independent Tribune of Kannapolis last week, Hayes pivoted again, saying he was denying only the context of how the remarks were presented to him. (See the 5:33 mark of this WSOC-TV video.)

U.S. News and World Report later cited an internal House GOP document saying Hayes re-election bid was among those considered "likely gone." In response, a National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman told the Observer's Lisa Zagaroli that the party had not written off Hayes.

PPP's Tom Jensen, who conducts polls for Democratic candidates and other organizations, reports that Kissell had gained signficant ground since August with voters in his party, moving from 62-19 to 78-20. He's also improved with independents, turning a 43-27 deficit into a tie, 45-45.

Yes, it's still close...

Mason-Dixon/NBC News has Barack Obama and John McCain tied at 47 in North Carolina, MSNBC reports today.

Yesterday, Public Policy Polling had Obama leading by one, 49-48, while Rasmussen had McCain leading by the same 49-48. Zogby had Obama leading 50-46.

More details on Mason-Dixon as it comes.

The election - pumpkin style (with photos)

Because we're sure you want to know:

The McCain/Palin presidential ticket will land the White House, according to an official "pumpkin chunkin" held in Statesville to promote the Crossroads Pumpkin Fest on Saturday.

Pumpkins bearing the likenesses of the presidential and vice presidential candidates were launched from a homemade trebuchet, with John McCain and Sarah Palin outdistancing Barack Obama and Joe Biden, 166 yards to 162.

The winning pumpkins:

Closer to home, the Elizabeth neighborhood's Pumpkin Wall is set for its annual unveiling - to be held 7 p.m. Wednesday night on Lamar Avenue. A caveat: the wall in past years has had an unmistakeably Democratic tilt. But it's a fun, family-friendly effort.

A photo from 2006:

Morning Buzz: Southern whites and McCain

Are Southern whites - especially men - turning toward McCain as the election draws near?

McCain's six-point gain in a Public Policy Polling survey of North Carolina yesterday came largely with the help of white male Democrats. Also yesterday, a Washington Post tracking poll noted that while whites in other parts of the country poll for Obama or even, in the South they favor McCain by a two-to-one margin.

The temptation, for some, will be to attribute the numbers solely to race, but ideology might be a bigger factor of late. McCain, in the past two weeks, has honed his economic message to this: Barack Obama wants to share the wealth by taxing some Americans more than others. Democrats (and others) will argue that any tax system is a form of wealth sharing - and that McCain himself has argued that the rich should contribute more. But McCain's message now is resonating with conservative Democrats, especially men, and those voters are moving his way here.

Is it enough to tilt N.C. toward McCain and make Virginia a tossup? Expect Obama to launch a forceful appeal to those voters' pocketbooks today in Virginia and tomorrow in Raleigh.

Tell us what you think.

Your morning buzz:

The Wall Street Journal looks at the mayors who've made it to the executive branch. There aren't many.

The Washington Post's Dana Milbanks says that sometimes, mavericks turn into divas.

A John McCain fan, Post writer Anne Appelbaum, explains why she can't give him the nod.

Another must-win for McCain, Florida, is being fiercely contested by Obama, says Politico's Jonathan Martin.

While we're being geographic, Newsweek examines why Virginia, the state that's home to McCain HQ, is in play.

The political winner of the day is...

Obama gives what his campaign calls a "closing argument." McCain concentrates on finishing strong. The Ballot breaks down the day.

The words: McCain grabbing onto "Barack the Socialist" label with both hands. Obama says America can hope again - but not if McCain keeps giving Bush's tax breaks to the wealthy. Edge: Tie.

The numbers: McCain gets doubly good news in North Carolina, as well as a closer number in New Hampshire. Obama maintains or improves numbers in Ohio, Colorado, Florida and Virginia. The daily peek at Pennsylvania - still a significant Obama lead. Edge: Tie.

The lasting (for better or worse) image: Alaska Gov. Ted Stevens convicted on seven counts of making false statements on Senate financial documents. No, this does not reflect poorly on John McCain or Sarah Palin, and Republicans certainly haven't cornered the market on corruption. But eight days from an election, it's not the headline the GOP wants leading the newscasts. Edge: Obama.

The winner:

A tie. McCain attack on taxes cancels out Obama's lofty speech on change. Polls move a little for McCain, a little for Obama. The numbers show a solid Obama lead, but no one is talking electoral blowout today.  

New poll: Obama loses most of N.C. lead

(Updated, 6:15 p.m.) Is North Carolina reverting back to form?

In the latest N.C. survey from Raleigh's Public Policy Polling, John McCain trails Barack Obama by only one point, 49-48, with two percent undecided. Obama led by seven points in PPP's poll one week ago.

In the U.S. Senate race - Democrat Kay Hagan leads Republican Elizabeth Dole, 48-45, after leading by seven in PPP's survey last week.

In the presidential poll, McCain has picked up much of his new N.C. support from Democrats, grabbing 19 percent of them this week, up from 14 percent a week ago. He also moved from plus 16 points with white voters to plus 24.

One encouraging sign for Obama supporters: Obama is leading 63-36 among respondents who already voted.

Said Jensen to the Ballot: "It’s always better to have your votes in the bank than it is to count on your people coming out on election day. I think the race in North Carolina will be decided by 50,000 voters or less, but Obama has the upper hand for a 1-2 point victory based on so many of his supporters already having turned out to cast a ballot for him.

But, he added: "There was a lot of movement in McCain’s direction with white voters over the last week, and if that continues and those people vote, he’ll pull it out."

In a poll released early today, Zogby had Obama leading McCain by three points.

(Updated: Rasmussen, which had McCain leading by two last Friday, has him leading by one today, 49-48, with two percent undecided.)

(The methodology: PPP surveyed 1,038 likely voters on October 25th and 26th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-2.8%.)

Biden in Greenville; Obama announces Raleigh visit

Joe Biden seems to be having some voter turnout issues in North Carolina.

Unlike fellow VP candidate Sarah Palin, who spoke to a crowd of several thousand Sunday in Asheville, Biden drew just 400 today at East Carolina University in Greenville. Last week, he managed about 1,500 for a morning speech at UNC Charlotte.

Expect a few more folks for Barack Obama, who will be speaking Wednesday in downtown Raleigh, his campaign just announced. The outdoor event, which begins at 11:15 a.m., will be at the Halifax Mall Government Complex on Salisbury Street. Gates open at 10 a.m.

In Greenville today, Mark Johnson reports that Biden rolled into one of the key territories his party is counting on to help win the White House: a college campus.

Reports Johnson:

Biden addressed an East Carolina University crowd in which students appeared to be a minority, but the visit reflected how much his running mate, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, is counting on the youth vote. Democrats are hoping a wave of new, energized voters will help propel them to widespread victories on Election Day.

The modest-sized ECU crowd didn’t display a surge of support in this eastern North Carolina town, but students said the campus was dotted with signals that this year was different.

Mary Morgan Mills, a freshman elementary education major from Charlotte, said the Obama campaign routinely sets up a table for voter registration in the commons area where students eat lunch.

“They’re always handing out flyers,” Mills said. “I’ve seen a (John) McCain table once.”

Librarian Rita Khazanie, 55, said students seem more attentive and enthusiastic than in years past.


“Everybody seems to know more about the issues,” Khazanie said. “It’s not just, ‘I’m going to vote for somebody.’ It’s, ‘Here’s why.’”

What Rachel Sykes noticed is not that her friends say they’re going to support Obama, but that so many have already done it, said the senior public relations major from Selma.


Biden, a U.S. senator from Delaware, delivered a 25-minute speech, part of which mocked Republican efforts to distance McCain, the Arizona senator and Republican presidential nominee, from President Bush.

“I know Halloween’s coming,” Biden said, “but John McCain, dressed as an agent of change – that costume doesn’t fit.”


During visits Monday and last Thursday, Biden made five stops in North Carolina. Four were on college campuses.

“There are more students eligible to vote in North Carolina than the number of votes by which North Carolina’s presidential vote was decided in 2004,” said Paul Cox, spokesman for Obama’s N.C. campaign.


Democrats account for about half of the 400,000 newly registered voters in North Carolina. Republicans gained half that many.

Younger voters typically don’t show up in the polls, with their participation rates trailing far behind older voters. Obama’s campaign, however, has invested heavily in campaign staff in North Carolina and other states. Part of their mission has been rounding up volunteers, including on college campuses where they “storm the dorms” for voters, Cox said.


Biden spoke directly to students, emphasizing that they have the most at stake, since their entire future is ahead. He highlighted how Obama wants to broaden the definition of the kind of public service that helps earn money for college beyond serving in the military.

“If you commit to our communities, our hospitals, our schools, the underserved areas,” Biden said, “If you serve our country, we will get you to college.”

College students provide a relatively untapped reservoir of support, said Peter Francia, a political science professor at ECU. While students are busy, many of them have more time for political activity than working voters who are raising families. They’re also more comfortable using technology – email, texting and the like – to communicate, which has become an effective and successful means of reaching voters for modern campaigns.


Like others on campus, Francia said the atmosphere on college campuses is different this year.

“There were not young people packing auditoriums,” Francia said, “to see (Democratic presidential candidate) John Kerry in 2004.”

McCain: We both disagree with Bush

After meeting with a team of economic advisers, John McCain summed up his economic policies and took some swings at his opponent.

As with Barack Obama's "closing argument" today in Ohio, there's in McCain's remarks that Americans haven't heard before. Tax cuts to stimulate economic spending, a plan to buy up bad mortgages, stricter Wall Street oversight.

He offered a new twist on the "I'm not George Bush" argument:

This is the fundamental difference between Senator Obama and me. We both
disagree with President Bush on economic policy. The difference is that he thinks taxes have been too low, and I think that spending has been too high.

As he has recently, McCain poked hard at Obama, calling him "the most liberal person to ever run for the Presidency."

Finally, a growing narrative from the McCain campaign - Obama will have plenty of company willing to spend your money:

Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid? This is a dangerous threesome. They believe that $1 trillion of rescue financing is not enough and have already proposed another $300 billion spending spree they are calling a stimulus plan.

McCain's remarks will steal some air from Obama's "closing argument" - clips from both speeches will placed back-to-back on the networks this evening. Neither, however, offered much more than policy summary and the requisite swipes at the other guy.

Any minds changed out there? Tell us what you think.

Obama's "closing argument"

Barack Obama's campaign has been billing his speech later today in Canton, Ohio, as a "closing argument" to the American people.

If excerpts sent from the campaign this morning are any guide, there's a little - but not much - that voters haven't already heard. Obama notes, once more, how McCain's tax plan benefits the wealthy, how McCain shares George Bush's economic policies and philosophies, and how Obama's own proposals will result in tax cuts for Americans making less than $250,000.

Of note: Obama nods to McCain's recent warnings about big-government Democrats running Washington. Says Obama:

Understand, if we want get through this crisis, we need to get beyond the old ideological debates and divides between left and right. We don’t need bigger government or smaller government. We need a better government – a more competent government – a government that upholds the values we hold in common as Americans.

So where are those Obama sum-it-up moments? A couple of places:

In one week, you can turn the page on policies that have put the greed and irresponsibility of Wall Street before the hard work and sacrifice of folks on Main Street.

In one week, you can choose policies that invest in our middle-class, create new jobs, and grow this economy from the bottom-up so that everyone has a chance to succeed; from the CEO to the secretary and the janitor; from the factory owner to the men and women who work on its floor.

In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope.

In one week, at this defining moment in history, you can give this country the change we need.

And this, which Republicans surely will attack as a "redistribution of wealth" promise:

What we have lost in these last eight years cannot be measured by lost wages or bigger trade deficits alone. What has also been lost is the idea that in this American story, each of us has a role to play. Each of us has a responsibility to work hard and look after ourselves and our families, and each of us has a responsibility to our fellow citizens. That’s what’s been lost these last eight years – our sense of common purpose; of higher purpose. And that’s what we need to restore right now.

Tell us what you think. We'll have details from McCain's economic speech shortly.

(Update: the full Obama speech.)

Morning Buzz: Tea leaves...

Five things we'll be watching - and you should, too - in the last full week of the campaign:

Where John McCain spends his money: He doesn't have much left - even with Republican Party help. He will spend only where he thinks he has his best chance - or where he can't afford to lose. That, apparently, doesn't mean Wisconsin, Maine, Minnesota and Colorado, where he cut advertising money last week and likely won't visit again.

McCain also cut back on New Hampshire this weekend, perhaps acknowledging a Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll showed Barack Obama with a 15-point lead. (A thought as a New Hampshire native: It's not over up there.)

Where Obama campaigns this weekend: The sites likely will be announced midweek. If he is in places like Missouri and Indiana instead of places like Pennsylvania and Ohio, then he is thinking blowout instead of mere victory.

How many N.C. voters who registered in 2008 turned out for early voting? We reported Friday that those 11.4 percent of those voters cast ballots in the first week of early voting - with demographics that favored Democrats. Why is this important? Historically, new voter registrations don't translate much into actual votes.

The N.C. numbers thus far show new voters casting ballots at about the same rate as other voters. If that holds, it's a testament to the Obama ground game here - and perhaps elsewhere. We'll look again at the end of this week.

Polls in four states: Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado. Yes, Obama could win Missouri, Florida, and Indiana, but the polls there this week are likely to show nothing more definitive than a close race or McCain lead. This election becomes tight again if McCain thins Obama leads in Colorado and Virginia - and especially in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

(Your first poll of the day: Washington Post has Obama up by 8 in Virginia.)

And, of course, North Carolina: Both campaigns are spending a lot of time here early this week - for a simple reason. If Obama wins North Carolina, the electoral map folds for McCain. He will not make up N.C.'s 15 electoral votes.

What will you be watching? Tell us here.

Your morning buzz:

The Wall Street Journal nicely sums up the two candidates' economic plans and what they mean to you.

New York Times conservative columnist Bill Kristol says it's time for John McCain to go ... positive?

Former Bush adviser Peter Wehner says modern day conservatism could use some lean years.

Sarah Palin, off message again? CNN reports.

Newsweek's Jonathan Alter sketches out how a McCain victory could happen - but, he says, probably won't.

Obama speech in Canton

Barack Obama, prepared remarks.
Canton, OH - 10/27/2008

One week.

After decades of broken politics in Washington, eight years of failed policies from George Bush, and twenty-one months of a campaign that has taken us from the rocky coast of Maine to the sunshine of California, we are one week away from change in America.

In one week, you can turn the page on policies that have put the greed and irresponsibility of Wall Street before the hard work and sacrifice of folks on Main Street.

In one week, you can choose policies that invest in our middle-class, create new jobs, and grow this economy from the bottom-up so that everyone has a chance to succeed; from the CEO to the secretary and the janitor; from the factory owner to the men and women who work on its floor.

In one week, you can put an end to the politics that would divide a nation just to win an election; that tries to pit region against region, city against town, Republican against Democrat; that asks us to fear at a time when we need hope.

In one week, at this defining moment in history, you can give this country the change we need.

We began this journey in the depths of winter nearly two years ago, on the steps of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois. Back then, we didn’t have much money or many endorsements. We weren’t given much of a chance by the polls or the pundits, and we knew how steep our climb would be.

But I also knew this. I knew that the size of our challenges had outgrown the smallness of our politics. I believed that Democrats and Republicans and Americans of every political stripe were hungry for new ideas, new leadership, and a new kind of politics – one that favors common sense over ideology; one that focuses on those values and ideals we hold in common as Americans.

Most of all, I believed in your ability to make change happen. I knew that the American people were a decent, generous people who are willing to work hard and sacrifice for future generations. And I was convinced that when we come together, our voices are more powerful than the most entrenched lobbyists, or the most vicious political attacks, or the full force of a status quo in Washington that wants to keep things just the way they are.

Twenty-one months later, my faith in the American people has been vindicated. That’s how we’ve come so far and so close – because of you. That’s how we’ll change this country – with your help. And that’s why we can’t afford to slow down, sit back, or let up for one day, one minute, or one second in this last week. Not now. Not when so much is at stake.

We are in the middle of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. 760,000 workers have lost their jobs this year. Businesses and families can’t get credit. Home values are falling. Pensions are disappearing. Wages are lower than they’ve been in a decade, at a time when the cost of health care and college have never been higher. It’s getting harder and harder to make the mortgage, or fill up your gas tank, or even keep the electricity on at the end of the month.

At a moment like this, the last thing we can afford is four more years of the tired, old theory that says we should give more to billionaires and big corporations and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else. The last thing we can afford is four more years where no one in Washington is watching anyone on Wall Street because politicians and lobbyists killed common-sense regulations. Those are the theories that got us into this mess. They haven’t worked, and it’s time for change. That’s why I’m running for President of the United States.

Now, Senator McCain has served this country honorably. And he can point to a few moments over the past eight years where he has broken from George Bush – on torture, for example. He deserves credit for that. But when it comes to the economy – when it comes to the central issue of this election – the plain truth is that John McCain has stood with this President every step of the way. Voting for the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy that he once opposed. Voting for the Bush budgets that spent us into debt. Calling for less regulation twenty-one times just this year. Those are the facts.

And now, after twenty-one months and three debates, Senator McCain still has not been able to tell the American people a single major thing he’d do differently from George Bush when it comes to the economy. Senator McCain says that we can’t spend the next four years waiting for our luck to change, but you understand that the biggest gamble we can take is embracing the same old Bush-McCain policies that have failed us for the last eight years.

It’s not change when John McCain wants to give a $700,000 tax cut to the average Fortune 500 CEO. It’s not change when he wants to give $200 billion to the biggest corporations or $4 billion to the oil companies or $300 billion to the same Wall Street banks that got us into this mess. It’s not change when he comes up with a tax plan that doesn’t give a penny of relief to more than 100 million middle-class Americans. That’s not change.

Look – we’ve tried it John McCain’s way. We’ve tried it George Bush’s way. Deep down, Senator McCain knows that, which is why his campaign said that “if we keep talking about the economy, we’re going to lose.” That’s why he’s spending these last weeks calling me every name in the book. Because that’s how you play the game in Washington. If you can’t beat your opponent’s ideas, you distort those ideas and maybe make some up. If you don’t have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run away from. You make a big election about small things.

Ohio, we are here to say “Not this time. Not this year. Not when so much is at stake.” Senator McCain might be worried about losing an election, but I’m worried about Americans who are losing their homes, and their jobs, and their life savings. I can take one more week of John McCain’s attacks, but this country can’t take four more years of the same old politics and the same failed policies. It’s time for something new.

The question in this election is not “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” We know the answer to that. The real question is, “Will this country be better off four years from now?”

I know these are difficult times for America. But I also know that we have faced difficult times before. The American story has never been about things coming easy – it’s been about rising to the moment when the moment was hard. It’s about seeing the highest mountaintop from the deepest of valleys. It’s about rejecting fear and division for unity of purpose. That’s how we’ve overcome war and depression. That’s how we’ve won great struggles for civil rights and women’s rights and worker’s rights. And that’s how we’ll emerge from this crisis stronger and more prosperous than we were before – as one nation; as one people.

Remember, we still have the most talented, most productive workers of any country on Earth. We’re still home to innovation and technology, colleges and universities that are the envy of the world. Some of the biggest ideas in history have come from our small businesses and our research facilities. So there’s no reason we can’t make this century another American century. We just need a new direction. We need a new politics.

Now, I don’t believe that government can or should try to solve all our problems. I know you don’t either. But I do believe that government should do that which we cannot do for ourselves – protect us from harm and provide a decent education for our children; invest in new roads and new science and technology. It should reward drive and innovation and growth in the free market, but it should also make sure businesses live up to their responsibility to create American jobs, and look out for American workers, and play by the rules of the road. It should ensure a shot at success not only for those with money and power and influence, but for every single American who’s willing to work. That’s how we create not just more millionaires, but more middle-class families. That’s how we make sure businesses have customers that can afford their products and services. That’s how we’ve always grown the American economy – from the bottom-up. John McCain calls this socialism. I call it opportunity, and there is nothing more American than that.

Understand, if we want get through this crisis, we need to get beyond the old ideological debates and divides between left and right. We don’t need bigger government or smaller government. We need a better government – a more competent government – a government that upholds the values we hold in common as Americans.

We don’t have to choose between allowing our financial system to collapse and spending billions of taxpayer dollars to bail out Wall Street banks. As President, I will ensure that the financial rescue plan helps stop foreclosures and protects your money instead of enriching CEOs. And I will put in place the common-sense regulations I’ve been calling for throughout this campaign so that Wall Street can never cause a crisis like this again. That’s the change we need.

The choice in this election isn’t between tax cuts and no tax cuts. It’s about whether you believe we should only reward wealth, or whether we should also reward the work and workers who create it. I will give a tax break to 95% of Americans who work every day and get taxes taken out of their paychecks every week. I’ll eliminate income taxes for seniors making under $50,000 and give homeowners and working parents more of a break. And I’ll help pay for this by asking the folks who are making more than $250,000 a year to go back to the tax rate they were paying in the 1990s. No matter what Senator McCain may claim, here are the facts – if you make under $250,000, you will not see your taxes increase by a single dime – not your income taxes, not your payroll taxes, not your capital gains taxes. Nothing. Because the last thing we should do in this economy is raise taxes on the middle-class.

When it comes to jobs, the choice in this election is not between putting up a wall around America or allowing every job to disappear overseas. The truth is, we won’t be able to bring back every job that we’ve lost, but that doesn’t mean we should follow John McCain’s plan to keep giving tax breaks to corporations that send American jobs overseas. I will end those breaks as President, and I will give American businesses a $3,000 tax credit for every job they create right here in the United States of America. I’ll eliminate capital gains taxes for small businesses and start-up companies that are the engine of job creation in this country. We’ll create two million new jobs by rebuilding our crumbling roads, and bridges, and schools, and by laying broadband lines to reach every corner of the country. And I will invest $15 billion a year in renewable sources of energy to create five million new energy jobs over the next decade – jobs that pay well and can’t be outsourced; jobs building solar panels and wind turbines and a new electricity grid; jobs building the fuel-efficient cars of tomorrow, not in Japan or South Korea but here in the United States of America; jobs that will help us eliminate the oil we import from the Middle East in ten years and help save the planet in the bargain. That’s how America can lead again.

When it comes to health care, we don’t have to choose between a government-run health care system and the unaffordable one we have now. If you already have health insurance, the only thing that will change under my plan is that we will lower premiums. If you don’t have health insurance, you’ll be able to get the same kind of health insurance that Members of Congress get for themselves. We’ll invest in preventative care and new technology to finally lower the cost of health care for families, businesses, and the entire economy. And as someone who watched his own mother spend the final months of her life arguing with insurance companies because they claimed her cancer was a pre-existing condition and didn’t want to pay for treatment, I will stop insurance companies from discriminating against those who are sick and need care most.

When it comes to giving every child a world-class education so they can compete in this global economy for the jobs of the 21st century, the choice is not between more money and more reform – because our schools need both. As President, I will invest in early childhood education, recruit an army of new teachers, pay them more, and give them more support. But I will also demand higher standards and more accountability from our teachers and our schools. And I will make a deal with every American who has the drive and the will but not the money to go to college: if you commit to serving your community or your country, we will make sure you can afford your tuition. You invest in America, America will invest in you, and together, we will move this country forward.

And when it comes to keeping this country safe, we don’t have to choose between retreating from the world and fighting a war without end in Iraq. It’s time to stop spending $10 billion a month in Iraq while the Iraqi government sits on a huge surplus. As President, I will end this war by asking the Iraqi government to step up, and finally finish the fight against bin Laden and the al Qaeda terrorists who attacked us on 9/11. I will never hesitate to defend this nation, but I will only send our troops into harm's way with a clear mission and a sacred commitment to give them the equipment they need in battle and the care and benefits they deserve when they come home. I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century, and I will restore our moral standing, so that America is once again that last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future.

I won’t stand here and pretend that any of this will be easy – especially now. The cost of this economic crisis, and the cost of the war in Iraq, means that Washington will have to tighten its belt and put off spending on things we can afford to do without. On this, there is no other choice. As President, I will go through the federal budget, line-by-line, ending programs that we don’t need and making the ones we do need work better and cost less.

But as I’ve said from the day we began this journey all those months ago, the change we need isn’t just about new programs and policies. It’s about a new politics – a politics that calls on our better angels instead of encouraging our worst instincts; one that reminds us of the obligations we have to ourselves and one another.

Part of the reason this economic crisis occurred is because we have been living through an era of profound irresponsibility. On Wall Street, easy money and an ethic of “what’s good for me is good enough” blinded greedy executives to the danger in the decisions they were making. On Main Street, lenders tricked people into buying homes they couldn’t afford. Some folks knew they couldn’t afford those houses and bought them anyway. In Washington, politicians spent money they didn’t have and allowed lobbyists to set the agenda. They scored political points instead of solving our problems, and even after the greatest attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor, all we were asked to do by our President was to go out and shop.

That is why what we have lost in these last eight years cannot be measured by lost wages or bigger trade deficits alone. What has also been lost is the idea that in this American story, each of us has a role to play. Each of us has a responsibility to work hard and look after ourselves and our families, and each of us has a responsibility to our fellow citizens. That’s what’s been lost these last eight years – our sense of common purpose; of higher purpose. And that’s what we need to restore right now.

Yes, government must lead the way on energy independence, but each of us must do our part to make our homes and our businesses more efficient. Yes, we must provide more ladders to success for young men who fall into lives of crime and despair. But all of us must do our part as parents to turn off the television and read to our children and take responsibility for providing the love and guidance they need. Yes, we can argue and debate our positions passionately, but at this defining moment, all of us must summon the strength and grace to bridge our differences and unite in common effort – black, white, Latino, Asian, Native American; Democrat and Republican, young and old, rich and poor, gay and straight, disabled or not.

In this election, we cannot afford the same political games and tactics that are being used to pit us against one another and make us afraid of one another. The stakes are too high to divide us by class and region and background; by who we are or what we believe.

Because despite what our opponents may claim, there are no real or fake parts of this country. There is no city or town that is more pro-America than anywhere else – we are one nation, all of us proud, all of us patriots. There are patriots who supported this war in Iraq and patriots who opposed it; patriots who believe in Democratic policies and those who believe in Republican policies. The men and women who serve in our battlefields may be Democrats and Republicans and Independents, but they have fought together and bled together and some died together under the same proud flag. They have not served a Red America or a Blue America – they have served the United States of America.

It won’t be easy, Ohio. It won’t be quick. But you and I know that it is time to come together and change this country. Some of you may be cynical and fed up with politics. A lot of you may be disappointed and even angry with your leaders. You have every right to be. But despite all of this, I ask of you what has been asked of Americans throughout our history.

I ask you to believe – not just in my ability to bring about change, but in yours.

I know this change is possible. Because I have seen it over the last twenty-one months. Because in this campaign, I have had the privilege to witness what is best in America.

I’ve seen it in lines of voters that stretched around schools and churches; in the young people who cast their ballot for the first time, and those not so young folks who got involved again after a very long time. I’ve seen it in the workers who would rather cut back their hours than see their friends lose their jobs; in the neighbors who take a stranger in when the floodwaters rise; in the soldiers who re-enlist after losing a limb. I’ve seen it in the faces of the men and women I’ve met at countless rallies and town halls across the country, men and women who speak of their struggles but also of their hopes and dreams.

I still remember the email that a woman named Robyn sent me after I met her in Ft. Lauderdale. Sometime after our event, her son nearly went into cardiac arrest, and was diagnosed with a heart condition that could only be treated with a procedure that cost tens of thousands of dollars. Her insurance company refused to pay, and their family just didn’t have that kind of money.

In her email, Robyn wrote, “I ask only this of you – on the days where you feel so tired you can’t think of uttering another word to the people, think of us. When those who oppose you have you down, reach deep and fight back harder.”

Ohio, that’s what hope is – that thing inside us that insists, despite all evidence to the contrary, that something better is waiting around the bend; that insists there are better days ahead. If we’re willing to work for it. If we’re willing to shed our fears and our doubts. If we’re willing to reach deep down inside ourselves when we’re tired and come back fighting harder.

Hope! That’s what kept some of our parents and grandparents going when times were tough. What led them to say, “Maybe I can’t go to college, but if I save a little bit each week my child can; maybe I can’t have my own business but if I work really hard my child can open one of her own.” It’s what led immigrants from distant lands to come to these shores against great odds and carve a new life for their families in America; what led those who couldn’t vote to march and organize and stand for freedom; that led them to cry out, “It may look dark tonight, but if I hold on to hope, tomorrow will be brighter.”

That’s what this election is about. That is the choice we face right now.

Don’t believe for a second this election is over. Don’t think for a minute that power concedes. We have to work like our future depends on it in this last week, because it does.

In one week, we can choose an economy that rewards work and creates new jobs and fuels prosperity from the bottom-up.

In one week, we can choose to invest in health care for our families, and education for our kids, and renewable energy for our future.

In one week, we can choose hope over fear, unity over division, the promise of change over the power of the status quo.

In one week, we can come together as one nation, and one people, and once more choose our better history.

That’s what’s at stake. That’s what we’re fighting for. And if in this last week, you will knock on some doors for me, and make some calls for me, and talk to your neighbors, and convince your friends; if you will stand with me, and fight with me, and give me your vote, then I promise you this – we will not just win Ohio, we will not just win this election, but together, we will change this country and we will change the world. Thank you, God bless you, and may God bless America.

N.C., Pennsylvania on candidates' minds (and schedules)

No secrets this week about where the candidates feel the electoral fight is fiercest. Just look at the schedules.

As we head into the last full week of campaigning, both Obama and McCain are focusing attention on only a handful of states - most prominently North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Between now and Wednesday, the campaigns will have seven events in North Carolina. Sarah Palin leads the way with an Asheville appearance today, followed by Joe Biden in Greenville and Greensboro tomorrow and John McCain in Fayetteville on Tuesday. Michelle Obama will be in Rocky Mount and Fayetteville on Wednesday, with Barack Obama also coming to the state that day to a city not yet announced.

Pennsylvania also is getting much love from the campaigns, especially the Republicans, despite McCain trailing there by 7-12 points in the most recent polling. McCain and Palin are planning five events in Pennsylvania in the next four days, including two together. Obama has stops in Pennsylvania both Monday and Tuesday. 

Pennsylvania has awarded its electoral votes to Democrats the last four elections, but insiders from both parties feel the state has the type of conservative, uncertain Democrats that McCain might be able to nudge away from Obama this week.  

Both campaigns also are placing emphasis on Florida and Virginia. Joe Biden will leave N.C. for four Florida stops in three days. Palin will have three events in Virginia tomorrow, with Obama visiting for two stops the next day. 

The head scratcher, at least to some: John McCain will be Cedar Falls, Iowa, later this morning, the ticket's second stop in the state in the past two days. It's a state many in the GOP conceded to Obama long ago, although a Rasmussen poll Friday had McCain trailing only by eight points. Another poll, from Research 2000 yesterday, had Obama up 15 points. 

An N.C. early voting record (plus weekend hours)

Today, as we begin the second half of early voting, N.C. voters will set a record for total votes cast before election day.

As of yesterday, the ninth of 17 early voting days, voters had cast 1,088,825 early votes. In all of 2004 early voting, 1.1 million early votes were cast.

Unlike last weekend, early voting sites in Mecklenburg are open today from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. and tomorrow 1 p.m. to 4 p.m.

A complete list of sites are here.

Here's your enthusiasm breakdown of who's headed out to the polls thus far. A reminder, these numbers reflect only who has voted - NOT for whom they voted.

Party: Democrats 58%, Republicans 25%, Unaffiliated 17%.
Gender: Women 56%, Men 43%
Race: Whites 66%, Blacks 30%

Still a great deal of enthusiasm among Democrats, but as experts predicted, the numbers are beginning to even out a bit. Democrats fell below 60 percent for the first time in early voting.

We'll watch the totals Monday to see if a weekend early voting push by the campaigns results in real numbers. The Obama campaign especially is targeting today and tomorrow to rally early voters. In an email plea to Obama supporters, N.C. director Marc Farinella said: "This weekend is our last, best chance to reach folks while they can still vote early."

Pollsters and party officials also are keeping a close eye on the black vote. Experts estimate that Obama needs the black turnout in N.C. needs to be 22-23 percent for him to win. In 2004, blacks made up 18.6 percent of voters.

(A note: Several readers have asked if standard absentee ballots are counted on election day in North Carolina. Yes, they are counted on election day before the polls close.)

The political winner of the day is...

Barack Obama spends a day off the trail to visit his ailing grandmother. What would John McCain do with his solo? The Ballot breaks down the day.

The words: McCain, in Colorado, goes back to what's worked, hammering Obama on taxes - "The McCain/Palin tax cut is the real thing." Joe Biden, stepping in for Obama, goes seasonal on McCain and George Bush - "That's one costume the American people aren't going to buy." Edge: McCain.

The numbers: McCain follows worst polling day with his best in a long while. Good battleground news in N.C., Florida and Ohio. Obama gets reassuring news in Pennsylvania. Edge: McCain.

The lasting image: Obama, in Hawaii. Life intervenes, no matter what or who we are. Edge: None.

The winner:

A strong, consistent message on the stump. A good day in battleground polls. Who needs Hail Mary passes?

The unanswered turnout question - answered

Are Barack Obama's voter registration efforts translating into actual voter turnout?

Early voting totals in N.C. and elsewhere have shattered records, but we haven't known how many of those early voters are actually new voters - people who registered in 2008 - rather than enthusiastic veteran voters. Experts say that voter registration efforts often don't result in many actual votes.

But in North Carolina, after just one week of early voting, 89,442 out of N.C.'s 782,422 new registered voters have cast ballots. That's an impressive 11.4 percent turnout of new voters - about the same pace as already registered, more reliable voters.

The breakdown of those new voters:

Party: Democrats 51%, Republicans 24%, Unaffiliated 25%.
Race: Whites 60%, Blacks 31%.

For context, the percentages of total registered voters in N.C.: Democrats, 46%, Republicans, 32%, Unaffiliated 22%. So new voter representation is tilting toward the Democrats so far.

An optimistic Obama supporter will note that voters who registered as Democrats in 2008 will almost assuredly vote Democrat this election (as opposed to older voters who might have changed party in their hearts but not their registration forms.) Also, with unaffiliateds/independents favoring Obama in N.C. polls, it's possible that 70 percent of those new voters are casting ballots for Obama.

An optimistic Republican will note that the GOP has historically been masterful at turning out voters on election day. Will it be enough to overcome the new voter surge?

Tell us what you think.

(Much thanks to the Observer's Ted Mellnik for crunching N.C. Board of Elections data.)

McCain leads in new N.C. poll

The presidential race here continues to sway back and forth.

A Rasmussen poll released moments ago gives John McCain a 50-48 lead over Barack Obama, with just one percent undecided.

The lead is the first for McCain in a Rasmussen poll since September. On Monday, the pollster had McCain trailing Obama by three. Other N.C. polls this week have the race tied or Obama leading by 2-4 points.

Why the difference?

From Rasmussen:

Men support McCain by 20 points over Obama, but the Democrat has a 12-point lead among women.

Ninety-eight percent (98%) of African-American voters support Obama, while 64% of whites back McCain. Democrats outnumber Republicans five-to-one among new voters who registered this year in North Carolina, and the Obama campaign is counting on a large black voter turnout to help move the state into its column.

Forty-three percent (43%) say the economy is the most important issue in the election, and North Carolina voters trust McCain more than Obama on the economy, 51% to 46%. Forty-two percent (42%) agree with Obama that when the federal government spreads wealth around, it’s good for everybody, but 44% disagree.

Twenty-one percent (21%) believe national security is the number one issue in the election. McCain has a 10-point lead on Obama in voter trust on this issue.

Rasmussen's numbers on Democratic party and African-American support for Obama are starkly better for the Democratic candidate than most other N.C. polls. That suggests Rasmussen has fewer Democrats and blacks in its sample. The issue of how to measure black turnout and sampling has vexed pollsters all election. There will be no right answer until Nov. 4.

The poll's details: 700 likely voters, margin of error +/- 4%.

Morning Buzz: Is it over?

No.

The numbers were sobering yesterday for John McCain, with Barack Obama taking significant leads in several critical battleground state polls.

The subtler winds were even more troubling, with Republican insiders blaming each other fora loss that hasn't happened yet.

And it still may not.

In a story for the New York Times today, Adam Nagourney hears from strategists in both parties who say there are still paths to victory for McCain.

The electoral route is simpler now. McCain first needs these six states - Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana, and Missouri. All are places he was either leading or narrowly trailed just a week ago in some polls. The road is tougher from there. McCain also needs either Pennsylvania, a state many feel is closer than the 10-13 point lead the polls show, or some combo of the following: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire.

In many of those states, McCain made inroads earlier this month with his party's base and conservative Democrats, mostly white men, who responded to his message about Obama's tax plan "redistributing the wealth." There is still time, although not much, for that message to take greater hold.

And finally, the unknown turnout question: How many people in those long early voting lines are new voters? Without them, it's a much different electoral landscape for Obama and McCain, no matter what the numbers say now.

Tell us what you think.

Your morning buzz:

The New York Times takes a look back at Sarah Palin, young woman, and the man who left the most impression on Joe Biden.

Did Sarah Palin's attractiveness cloud John McCain's judgment?

Conservative columnist Kathleen Parker asks.

Charles Krauthammer says that unlike some fellow conservatives, he is still voting for McCain.

The Wall Street Journal's Gerald Seib says win or lose, Palin will remain a force.

The Honolulu Advertiser notes Obama's arrival to see his grandmother.

The political winner of the day is...

Barack Obama in red Indiana? Joe Biden in red N.C.? The Ballot breaks down the day.

The words: McCain goes after George Bush as hard as he does his opponent (and Republicans snap back at the candidate.) Obama/Biden stay on the economy - and on offense. Edge: Obama.

The numbers: Obama's best battleground day of the election. He sweeps all eight Big Ten states by double digits, including Ohio and Indiana. Also gets good news in Florida. McCain gets a glimmer of good news with another one-point national poll. Edge: Obama

The lasting image: Wardrobe-gate? Reporters following the money. (Yes, it's getting silly.) Edge: None.

The winner:









Poor numbers and infighting - perhaps the most dispiriting day of the general election for McCain supporters.

The best (family friendly) video of the election

It's from director, producer and actor Ron Howard (along with Andy Griffith and Henry Winkler).

If you are over 40, it should make you smile. The chances of that increase if you are voting for Barack Obama.

Watch it here.

The Ballot is all about equal time. Send us the best pro-McCain or Palin video you've seen.

Robin Hayes = "likely gone"?

Did the U.S. Representative from Concord gravely wound his re-election bid by saying "Liberals hate real Americans"?

The House GOP is reportedly considering Hayes "likely gone" after he denied controversial remarks he made in a Concord speech last week, then acknowledged the remarks. Hayes has now denied the initial denial.

An internal document released to U.S. News & World Report says Hayes' 8th Congressional District campaign against Democrat Larry Kissell is among the races most in danger for the GOP. The source called the document a "death list."

Ken Spain, spokesman for the NRCC, told the Observer's Lisa Zagaroli today that the national party has not written off Hayes.

"Absolutely not," Spain said. "Robin Hayes is well positioned for re-election. Any reference to the contrary is simply not based on fact or any relevant data."

Hayes, in a warmup to John McCain's speech Saturday in Concord, told the crowd: "Liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God." (audio with this link.)

The Hayes campaign initially said the congressman absolutely denied he made the remark, calling Politico "irresponsible" for publishing it. After being confronted with evidence from media including the Observer, the campaign then released a statement acknowledging the remark.

At a debate hosted by the Independent Tribune of Kannapolis on Wednesday, Hayes pivoted again, saying he was denying only the context of how the remarks were presented to him. (See the 5:33 mark of this WSOC-TV video.)

Biden at UNCC: McCain/Palin 'quack like George Bush'

The Democratic VP nominee lobbed some colorful volleys at the Republican ticket at Halton Arena this morning.

Biden, speaking before a crowd that grew to 1,500 by the time he took the stage, focused mostly on the economy.

"There is not one fundamental economic issue, not one fundamental economic issue, on which John McCain has taken issue with George Bush," Biden said.

Biden criticized McCain for supporting policies that give tax benefits to companies that ship jobs overseas - an issue that resonates with N.C. audiences - and he knocked McCain for not yet supporting a second economic stimulus plan targeting the middle class.

Barack Obama, he said, would emphasize growing the economy through the working class. Said Biden: "Ladies and gentlemen, it's all about jobs, it's all about jobs at the end of the day."

Biden, as he has frequently in recent stops, also criticized McCain for a negative campaign.

"Right now, our campaigns are trading a little paint," he said, offering a NASCAR reference that fell somewhat flat. "But what worries me most is that the McCain campaign is getting a little loose."

He added: "I don't recognize him anymore. I used to know him well."

(Thanks to the Observer's Jim Morrill for the crowd update.)

Biden at UNC Charlotte - trading paint

To begin, a little NASCAR reference from Biden:

"Right now, our campaigns are trading a little paint," he tells a UNC Charlotte crowd. "But what worries me most is that that the McCain campaign is getting a little loose."

Not much response. Apparently not a racing savvy crowd. 

Says Biden: "Now's the time we most need a steady hand."

Biden's at UNC Charlotte; where are the students?

The Observer's Jim Morrill reports that the crowd is thin at Halton Arena. 

With 15 minutes remaining before the Democratic VP nominee speaks at 10:30 a.m., Jim reports about 500 people in attendance. The upper deck of Halton has been curtained off. 

UNCC spokesman Paul Nowell says that the sparse attendance might be due to the late notice of the speech and the little promotion it received on campus. Plus, he says: "I think it's a combination of 10 o' clock in the morning and half the campus is still asleep." 

Morning Buzz: Evaluating Joe

That's Joe Biden, not Joe the Plumber - although it says something that Biden might not be the most notable Joe in the campaign right now. 

Biden will be speaking at UNC Charlotte's Halton Arena this morning before leaving for Winston-Salem and Raleigh as part of a three-college N.C. tour today.  The Observer's Jim Morrill will check in from UNCC to let us know what he says. 

If recent speeches are a guide, expect Biden to wonder how his friend John McCain could run such a negative campaign and ignore the middle class with his economic policies. It's a traditional VP candidate role, and Biden has embraced it. 

Biden has, thus far, done exactly what was expected of him as VP pick - both good and bad. He doggedly has gone after McCain, and he turned in perhaps the best debate performance of the general election. He also has tripped himself up in speeches and interviews along with the way. 

None of the latter have been damaging - although his boss had to answer for this week's "rhetorical flourish." Biden, unlike his VP counterpart Sarah Palin, has the benefit of being a known and respected quantity. So his stumbles are seen as Joe being Joe - a blend of colorful and candid that can sometimes result in a "oops, well, you know what I mean." 

But the biggest judgment on Biden has yet to come. Will the Scranton kid help deliver Pennsylvania, a state the McCain campaign is now setting up to be a must-win? If Obama wins there, then no one will be questioning his pick for VP.  

Tell us what you think. 

Your morning buzz:

Karl Rove writes for the Wall Street Journal that McCain should keep talking about taxes.

Gail Collins of the New York Times says McCain's negative campaign has even become offensive to telemarketers. 

McCain's image as a reformer was born in the Keating crisis, the Washington Post reports. 

David Broder profiles two campaign offices in an important Ohio county. 

What are the candidates hiding? Politico breaks it down. 

The political winner of the day is...

No surprises on the trail, but one very surprising number. The Ballot breaks down the day.

The words: Obama gives in and defends Biden's "rhetorical flourishes" about President O being tested in crisis. McCain/Palin return to Joe the plumber - and keep poking at Biden, too. Edge: McCain.

The polls: A one-point Obama lead nationally? Associated Press says so. But other nationals say Obama by 4-14 points. Battlegrounds offer good news for Obama in N.C., Virginia, Ohio and Nevada. But can we stop calling West Virginia a battleground now? Edge: Obama.

The lasting (for better or worse) image: Sarah Palin gets $150,000 from the RNC for clothes? We think it's a non-issue. But, says one Ballot reader: "I would've done a lot better with that to spend." Meow. Edge: None.

The winner:

Another page off the calendar, with Obama deftly balancing defense and offense ("John McCain likes to talk about 'Joe the Plumber' but he’s in cahoots with 'Joe the CEO.'") But, we wonder: Does this count as a negative McCain story?

Obama: Biden was right about crisis

Barack Obama sought to calm chatter today about his running mate's "rhetorical flourishes" regarding an international crisis testing Obama early in his presidency.

Biden, at a Seattle fundraiser Sunday night, said: “It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking."

He added: "We’re about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember, I said it standing here, if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.”

The McCain campaign has mocked Biden this week for the remarks, suggesting that he committed a gaffe in saying that Obama's election would guarantee a crisis. Today in Ohio, Sarah Palin joked that Obama's "next crisis has got to be Joe Biden's next speaking engagement."

Today, after a national security meeting with 15 advisors in Virginia, Obama acknowledged Biden's "rhetorial flourishes" but said his VP's assertion mirrored one made by Homeland Security Sec. Michael Chertoff.

"I think the point that Joe made is actually very similar to the one that Sec. Chertoff made today or yesterday which is that whoever is the next president, is gonna have to deal with a whole host of challenges internationally and that a period of transition in a new administration is always one in which we have to be vigilant," Obama said. "We have to be careful. We have to be mindful that as we pass the baton in this democracy that others don’t take advantage of it."

Tell us what you think.

The media and the candidates - a study

John McCain is getting more negative media coverage than Barack Obama, according to a study conducted by the Pew Research Center.

We'll pause while our commenters type A-H-A-!...

The study, released today, examined 2,412 campaign stories from 48 news outlets during the six weeks from the end of the conventions through the final presidential debate.

The results: While the candidates are receiving equal amounts of coverage, 59% of stories about McCain were "decidedly negative in nature," while only 14% were positive.

Obama hasn't exactly been fawned over by media, but the coverage has statistically been more evenhanded, with 36% of stories clearly positive, 35% neutral or mixed, and 29% negative.

The authors note that the most positive stories on Obama were about politics more than policy - stories like polling, the electoral map, and tactics.

McCain's coverage began positively, but turned sharply negative with McCain’s reaction to the crisis in the financial markets, the study said. Attempts to attack Obama’s character did hurt Obama’s media coverage, but McCain’s was even more negative.

Sarah Palin coverage's had an "up and down trajectory, moving from quite positive, to very negative, to more mixed," the study said. The negative coverage dealt with looks into her public record and her relationship with the press. "Little of her trouble came from coverage of her personal traits or family issues," the authors said.

Finally, a caveat from the authors: Obama, and then McCain, received negative coverage as each began to drop in the polls. "Winning in politics begat winning coverage," the study said. Which means: When someone is leading, we do positive stories about them leading - and how smart they were to get there.

The big question - are the media pro-Obama? - was not answerable by the data, the authors said.

We're sure you already have an opinion, however, data or not. Tell us what you think.

Who do the terrorists want to win?

The McCain campaign is disputing a Washington Post article this morning reporting that members of Al Queda would like McCain to win the presidency.

The Post reported a commentary on the extremist Web site al-Hesbah, which is linked to the terrorist group. "Al-Qaeda will have to support McCain in the coming election," said the commentary said, noting that McCain would continue the "failing march of his predecessor."

In a conference call with reporters today, McCain foreign policy advisor Randy Scheunemann wondered why the Post didn't include an April quote from Hamas leader Ahmed Yousef praising Obama.

Said Yousef: “We don’t mind — actually we like Mr. Obama. We hope that he will win the election and I do believe he is like John Kennedy, great man with a great principle, and he has a vision to change America to make it in a position to lead the world community, but not with domination and arrogance.”

The Post said that the al-Hesbah commentary suggested a strike on the U.S. to turn the election toward McCain. "It will push the Americans deliberately to vote for McCain so that he takes revenge for them against al-Qaeda," said the posting. "Al-Qaeda then will succeed in exhausting America."

Terrorism expert Richard Clarke wrote about just that kind of strategy in U.S. News & World Report earlier this month. At the very least, Clarke wrote, Americans should expect a late October video from Osama Bin Laden, who may have tilted the 2004 race toward Bush with a similar Halloween scare.

Republican congressman Steve King told an Iowa radio interviewer earlier this year that terrorists would celebrate an Obama win because pulling troops out of Iraq would be considered a defeat for the U.S.

"They will be dancing in the streets, and they'll be dancing in the streets in greater numbers than they did on September 11th," King said. "They will declare victory and they will use it to recruit more al-Qaida."

Neither candidate has said outright that terrorists want their opponent to win, although McCain has defended his campaign using the Hamas "endorsement" against Obama.

(h/t to Talking Points Memo for Scheunemann)

Early voting - a milestone

After just six days of early voting, more than 10 percent of the state's registered voters have cast their ballots this election, according to N.C. Board of Elections figures.

As of Tuesday evening, 629,266 voters have voted, including 544,000 who cast their ballots in person. The rest have submitted absentee ballots, including overseas and military ballots.

The numbers, which are on pace to shatter previous early voting highs, thus far show a continued enthusiasm among Democrats.

In onestop voting:

Party: Democrats, 61%, Republicans 23%, Unaffiliated 16%.

Gender: Female, 56%, Male 44%

Race: White, 64%, Black, 32%

N.C. polls show Barack Obama leading among female voters - and by a large margin among black voters. Experts point to the turnout of both as critical to his success in the state; they estimate that Obama needs the black turnout in N.C. needs to be 22-23 percent for him to win. In 2004, blacks made up 18.6 percent of voters.

Officials in both parties expect the percentage of black voters to decline some as Republicans turn out in greater percentages on Nov. 4. But the early surge is encouraging to Democrats, who have been disappointed in the past by election day turnout of their favorable demographics.

For McCain, the absentee ballot numbers should be encouraging:

Republicans 54%, Democrats 30%, Unaffiliated 16%.

The New York Times reports this morning that “significantly more" Democrats than Republicans have cast ballots at this early stage in Iowa, North Carolina, New Mexico and Ohio. In Florida, more Republicans have cast ballots, and in Colorado the numbers are even thus far after the first day of early voting.

Morning Buzz: McCain's move

Why is John McCain talking foreign policy again?

Americans have consistently told pollsters the economy is their top concern. Republican strategists have begged McCain to reach out more to voters concerned about their next paycheck, worried that it might be among their last.

And yet this week, the dominant theme for McCain has been an answer to Joe Biden's comments Sunday about a President Obama likely being tested early by international crisis.

McCain pounced on the opportunity to declare himself in need of no tests, which invited the expected Obama response - McCain has already been erratic in crisis. And the readiness vs. steadiness debate began again - a debate that McCain has not clearly won among independents.

So why bring it up at all?

Conservatives.

McCain, in the speeches he's giving and the places he's giving them, seems to be abandoning his fight for the middle. To some degree, it's worked.

He has, in the past two weeks, argued most forcefully about Obama "sharing the wealth," a concept that riles conservatives but not many others. He has, in robocalls, attacked Obama on late-term abortions and Bill Ayers. This week is about being ready for crisis, about being the safe choice.

They all are issues that haven't moved the needle with independents this election, but they are songs Republicans have hummed to since Reagan and Bush.

The result? Before Colin Powell, McCain tightened polls late last week - not because of independents moving McCain's way, but because he was gaining with Republicans. Conservatives, humming again.

Can McCain find enough of them - and pluck enough rural Democrats - to win an election? Tell us what you think.

Your morning buzz:

What finally pushed Colin Powell to endorse Obama? Maureen Dowd of the New York Times explains.

An inside the beltway look at inside our loop. Washington Post visits N.C. and Charlotte to talk politics.

Blacks are enthusiastically turning out early, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Can fretting Democrats handle the possibility of winning? Politico's Roger Simon explores.

Hopes are dimming for a last-minute financial savior for McCain, Politico reports.

Biden at UNC Charlotte Thursday

The Obama campaign announced this evening that the VP candidate will speak at Halton Arena as part of his three-stop N.C. college tour.

Biden will speak at about 10:30 a.m. Thursday; doors open at 8:30.

This event is free and open to the public, the campaign said. Tickets are not required, but an RSVP is strongly encouraged. Members of the public are invited to RSVP at www.nc.barackobama.com or call 704-804-9965. Space is available on a first-come, first-served basis.

Free parking will be available in the Harris Teeter Town Center Plaza, 8600 University City Blvd. Complimentary shuttles to UNCC campus provided. There will be a limited amount of paid parking available on campus.

Biden also will be speaking at Wake Forest on Thursday afternoon and Meredith College in Raleigh that evening.

Polls are showing a tight race in North Carolina. McCain campaign insiders told CNN this week that they expect to lose battleground states New Mexico, Iowa and, likely, Colorado, making North Carolina practically a must-win in any GOP electoral strategy. Expect a continued emphasis on the state from both tickets in the final 12 days of the campaign.

The day in N.C. polls

It's close out there.

Three polls - for U.S. president, N.C.'s U.S. Senate seat and Governor.

The numbers:

For president, from Civitas of Raleigh: Barack Obama 48%, John McCain 45%, Undecided 7%.

For U.S. Senate, from Civitas: Kay Hagan (D) 44%, Elizabeth Dole (R) 41%, Chris Cole (L) 4%.

For governor, from Public Policy Polling of Raleigh: Bev Perdue (D) 48%, Pat McCrory (R) 44%, Michael Munger (L) 4%.

For governor, from Civitas (apologies for the unintended exclusion): Pat McCrory (R) 43, Bev Perdue (D) 43.

Obama's lead in the Civitas poll tightened from a five-point lead two weeks ago. McCain leads among men by nine points, while trailing by 18 among female voters. Yesterday, Public Policy Polling had Obama up seven in N.C., while Rasmussen had Obama by three.

In the U.S. Senate race, Hagan's lead remained at three points. Oddly, undecideds in the race increased from 10 to 12 percent.

Perdue's four-point lead is the largest she's had in a PPP survey since August, an illustration of how close the race for governor is. The contest is shaping into a stark geographical battle - while McCrory leads in Charlotte, Perdue has opened up large advantages in the northeastern and southeastern N.C.

One possible factor: Perdue has been running ads saying McCrory wants to let New York and New Jersey dump their garbage in North Carolina. The ad, based on McCrory saying he would oppose a bill restricting new landfills in the state, has been called an exaggeration by an N.C. environmental think tank.

Chris Hayes of Civitas tells the Ballot all three races will come down to two factors.

"One, which way are unaffiliated voters breaking," Hayes says. "If McCain and Dole and to a certain extent, Perdue, can close the gap with those voters, they have a chance. And two, turnout. We’ve noticed some intensity lag with hardcore Republican voters in our polling. If they stay home like in 2006, it’s going to be a very, very long night for all Republicans up and down the ballot."

(Your methodologies: The Civitas polls were of 600 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2%. PPP interviewed 1,200 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.)

(Update: SurveyUSA, which has gone against the norm with N.C. polling results this election, has Obama and McCain tied at 47, Hagan leading Dole, 46-45 and McCrory leading Perdue, 46-43. SUSA's internals, however, show only five percent more Democrats than Republicans participating in the survey, a ratio tighter than the N.C. pollsters showed this week. N.C.'s registered voter totals also show a wider spread - about 13 points - between Democrats and Republicans.)

Robin Hayes - caught on tape

Did the U.S. Representative from Concord warm up John McCain's rally Saturday by saying that “liberals hate real Americans that work and achieve and believe in God”?

The New York Observer says so this morning. Hayes spokeswoman Amanda Little told Politico that Hayes absolutely denied the comment.

Observer reporter Lisa Zagaroli - and her digital tape recorder - were at the Concord event. She went through the speech this morning, and yes, amid some raucous crowd noise is this: "Liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God." Listen here

Hayes, upon further review, released a statement moments ago acknowledging the remark but saying he didn't recall making it:

"After reading it, there is no doubt that it came out completely the wrong way," he said. "I actually was trying to work to keep the crowd as respectful as possible, so this is definitely not what not what I intended.

"As a conservative, I fight for lower taxes and policies that strengthen our values. Liberals are advocating higher taxes, which I believe punish success - and they are advocating policies like gay marriage that I feel undermine strong families. We have a strong difference of opinion about the future of our nation, but obviously this was the wrong way to get that difference of opinion across."

The Hayes remark came a day after Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, a Republican, told MSNBC that media should do an expose of "the views of the people in Congress and find out: Are they pro-America or anti-America?" Such comments might play well with the home crowd, but not so much with moderates so critical to this election.

Zagaroli also reports that when Hayes first took the stage Saturday, he was holding written comments that he said would ensure "we don’t say something stupid, that we don’t say something we don’t mean."

Morning Buzz: straight party voter?

An early voting reader emails with a warning for those contemplating a straight party vote: read your ballot.

In North Carolina, your vote for president/vice president is not included in a straight party vote, which some states offer as an option to voters who want to choose the candidates of one party for all offices instead of voting on each race. If you choose to go straight party, make sure you also cast a separate vote for president and vice president - so John McCain or Barack Obama won't be left without your vote.

Our question of the day: Will you vote straight party this election? Fewer states, now 15, offer the one-vote, straight party option, although voters certainly can and do vote for party in each individual race. Tell us what you think.

Your morning buzz:

Just up on the New York Times homepage this morning - Obama pulls even in GOP stronghold of N.C. (h/t to reader T for the heads up.)

Is it too late for McCain to launch a comeback? The Wall Street Journal's Gerald Seib wonders.

Hate groups have been less prominent in this election than experts expected, the New York Times reports.

That ACORN scandal? It's phony, says the NYT's Bob Herbert.

E.J. Dionne of the Washington Post asks if the Catholic vote is shifting toward Obama?

On the trail, McCain emphasizing that he's not George Bush, the Post reports.

Exit pollers are worried about accuracy even more this year, Politico reports.

Robert Novak says Colin Powell wasn't much of a Republican, anyway.

Obama leaving campaign trail to visit ailing grandmother

Barack Obama will miss campaign events later this week to visit his gravely ill grandmother in Hawaii.

Obama campaign spokesman Robert Gibbs told reporters that Obama would leave the trail Thursday after a morning event in Indianapolis. He will skip events in Iowa and Wisconsin and fly to Honolulu to visit Madelyn Dunham, who will turn 86 on Sunday.

Obama plans to return to the campaign Saturday, probably in a Western state.

Gibbs declined to give details about Dunham's illness, but described it as very serious. “I think everyone understands that the decision that Senator Obama is making to go to Hawaii underscores the seriousness of the situation,” he told the New York Times.

Gibbs did not answer when asked whether Dunham is expected to live until Nov. 4, the Washington Post reports.

Dunham played a significant role in raising Obama, along with his mother, in Hawaii. Dunham also was a feminist trailblazer in the Hawaii banking industry in the 1970s, rising to become one of the first female vice presidents at the Bank of Hawaii. She helped put Obama through private school there.

"As he said at the Democratic Convention, she poured everything she had into him," Gibbs said.

The political winner of the day is...

One day after Colin Powell, the battles for the battlegrounds resume. The Ballot breaks down the day. 

The words: McCain and surrogates on Obama: He's not ready, a drug user and quite possibly a socialist. Obama on McCain: He still likes the rich a lot. The middle class - not so much now. Edge: Unknown.

The numbers: McCain gets welcome battleground news of leads in Ohio and Florida. Obama gets good news about Virginia, Colorado, Missouri and North Carolina (twice). At this point, McCain needs all six for the White House. Edge: Obama.

The lasting (for better or worse) image: Powell gets the Full Limbaugh. A sure sign the endorsement stung. Edge: Obama.

The winner: 

The Retired General knocks Joe the Plumber (and his message) off the national stage. Will McCain return to the "Obama spreading the wealth" theme that helped him tighten the polls, or is today's scattershot approach what we'll see until November? 

McCain: No time for Obama to "get used to the office"

The McCain campaign may be rekindling the Readiness vs. Steadiness debate.

In Missouri today, McCain pounced on recent Joe Biden remarks that Barack Obama would be tested by crisis early in his presidency. Biden, at a Seattle fundraiser Sunday night, said that Obama would likely be challenged by an international incident.

“It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking," Biden said, according to network news reports. "We’re about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember, I said it standing here, if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.”

Biden contemplated several scenarios out loud, including Russia and the Middle East.


Said McCain, in a Missouri speech this afternoon: "The next President won't have time to get used to the office."

He added: "We don't want a President who invites testing from the world at a time when our economy is in crisis and Americans are already fighting in two wars."

The Obama-Biden campaign responded with a statement from spokesman David Wade: "With our nation facing two wars and 21st century threats abroad, Senator Biden referenced the simple fact that history shows Presidents face challenges from day one. After eight years of a failed foreign policy, we need Barack Obama's good judgment and steady leadership, not the erratic and ideological Bush-McCain approach that has set back our security and standing in the world."


Will the McCain campaign pursue this angle? If the network newscasts play it up this evening, perhaps so. But is there a clear advantage in the debate that would follow?

Tell us what you think.

Obama, Hagan extend N.C. leads

The Democratic candidates for president and U.S. senate opened up significant leads in the latest surveys from Raleigh's Public Policy Polling.

The numbers, released this afternoon:

President: Barack Obama (D) 51, John McCain (R) 44, Bob Barr (L) 2.

U.S. Senate: Kay Hagan (D) 49, Elizabeth Dole (R) 42, Christopher Cole (L) 4.


Obama's lead in his largest in any PPP poll, and he got there thanks to a new surge with white voters, with whom he trails McCain 55-39 percent. In 2000 and 2004, George Bush won about two third of the N.C. white vote. Obama also is performing well with suburbanites (56-38) and independent voters (51-33).

PPP's Tom Jensen tells The Ballot: "Unless there’s a big shift back in John McCain’s direction nationally, I think Barack Obama is going to win North Carolina. Republicans have succeeded here in the past by winning about two thirds of the white vote, and also peeling off a large number of Democratic voters. But right now McCain is only winning white voters by 16 points, and Obama is over 80% with folks in his own party."

In the race for Dole's U.S. Senate seat, Jensen says Hagan was helped by the black vote - which gave Dole an unusual amount of support six years ago. In Monday's survey, Hagan led 84-7 among blacks.

"Kay Hagan has her party pretty much unified around her, and in a state where there are 13% more Democrats than Republicans, you’re going to win as a Democratic candidate when that’s the case." Jensen says. "Unless Dole makes large in roads with white Democrats the next two weeks, Hagan wins."

PPP, which conducts polls for Democratic candidates and other organizations, was widely lauded as one of the most accurate pollsters of the 2008 primaries.

Another North Carolina poll - from Rasmussen - will be released later today.

Early voting, weekend 1: numbers, controversy

Numbers from the first weekend of early N.C. voting showed strong enthusiasm among Democrats.

A total of 271,863 voters have cast early ballots from Thursday through Sunday, easily a record pace for N.C..

The breakdown of the first weekend's voters:

Party: Democrats, 62%, Republicans, 22%, Unaffiliated, 16%

Gender: Female, 55%, Male, 44% (some ballots had no designation.)

Race: White, 63%, Black, 33%.

For context, the percentages of registered voters in N.C.: Democrats, 46%, Republicans, 32%, Unaffiliated 22%. GOP officials expect their voters will show up in greater percentages on election day than in early voting.

On race, the early turnout is encouraging for the Obama campaign. Experts have estimated that Obama needs the black turnout in N.C. needs to be 22-23 percent for him to win. In 2004, blacks made up 18.6 percent of voters.

Most early voting sites were closed Sunday - and there was some controversy surrounding sites that were open, the Associated Press reports.

Said the AP:

North Carolina's Republican leaders lashed out at a county elections board that expanded the number of early voting sites open Sunday to accommodate people attending a rally for Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, the Associated Press reported.

Terri Robertson, director of Cumberland County's elections, said she was concerned that a crush of people Sunday afternoon would leave her staff working all night to process voters. Elections officials are required to process anyone who is in line by close of polls at 5 p.m.

"We decided that the best thing to do for our staff was to open two more sites so they weren't up all night processing voters," Robertson said. The full elections board, including one Republican member, voted unanimously on Friday to open two additional voting sites Sunday, bringing the total to five.

The county does not plan to open voting sites on Sundays for the rest of the early voting period, but will have polling places open the next two Saturdays as well as week days, according to a schedule on the state elections Web site.

Linda Daves, chairwoman of the state GOP, said while the party supports extra early voting capacity, the GOP opposes such a move when it is taken to solely accommodate people surrounding Obama's campaign.

"Their action makes the voting process an extension of a partisan political rally and that is clearly inappropriate," Daves said.

Morning Buzz: Does Powell endorsement matter?

Several non-Carolinian journalists called and emailed last week to ask what impact Dean Smith's endorsement might have on N.C. voters.

Very little, I said. The endorsement was unsurprising to folks here. But more so, the stakes in 2008 are too serious for voters to let anyone, even a basketball legend, have any real influence over their decision.

And yet...

There are often stretches when elections are fought on a micro level, when one developing narrative overpowers the political discussion. This is what was happening to the Obama campaign last week. McCain had found a resonant theme - Obama's "sharing the wealth" tax plan - and was pounding it with success.

Then Colin Powell arrived Sunday on Meet the Press and talked big picture - "transformational" Obama, "definitive" Obama. He reinforced that later with reporters, lamenting the silliness of the Obama the Socialist tag and Bill Ayers attacks. A respected Republican - urging Republicans to cut it out.

They won't, of course. To win, McCain needs to go micro again, to make one issue, one label large enough that he can hang a campaign on it. But for one day, and perhaps more, Colin Powell pulled the election back to where Obama wants it. Transformational. Definitive.

It's a message that meshed nicely with a crowd of 100,000 in St. Louis and $150 million raised in September. It's about as good as an endorsement can do.

Tell us what you think...

Your morning buzz:

Lawrence K. Altman, a doctor and New York Times writer, pursues medical questions about the four candidates.

A fine interview/profile in the New York Times about Barack Obama and the white vote.

Robert Dallek of The Washington Post says those questions matter.

The Washington Post's DeNeen Brown writes about a growing malady: voter jitters.

Newsweek's John Meacham wonders how a President Obama would govern a center-right nation.

The Los Angeles Times explores what that $150 million September haul means for Obama.

N.C. diner patron to Obama: 'Boo, socialist!'

Before a rally in Fayetteville today, the candidate stopped in Cape Fear BBQ, where he was met with some cheers and at least one unhappy customer, according to a pool report distributed by the campaign this afternoon.

From Jennifer Calhoun of the Fayetteville Observer:

Barack Obama made a brief appearance at a Dunn hotel before surprising lunch patrons at Cape Fear BBQ & Chicken in Fayetteville.

He then headed to the Crown Coliseum, arriving around 1:15 p.m. for a rally set to begin about 2:30 p.m.

At the Grove Street restaurant, Obama got a mostly warm reception from diners when his caravan pulled up about 12:45 p.m. He shook hands, posed for pictures and ordered lunch — a fried chicken plate with greens, slaw and baked beans, to go.

Not everyone was happy to see the Democratic senator, though. When Obama walked in, Diane Fanning, 54, yelled, “Boo, socialist! Socialist! Get out of here!”

Another woman responded loudly, “At least he’s not a warmonger!”

Lenox Bramble, 76, chastised Fanning for her rudeness, according to Politico. “Be civil, be courteous,” he admonished her. Bramble later told Obama he wasn’t going to vote for him “but I’ll shake your hand.”

Later, the retired Goodyear worker said, “There’s no need to be uncivil with someone. He wouldn’t be where he is today if he didn’t have some get-up-and-go. I try to be civil. If he had experience, it might be a different story, and John McCain has experience.”

Fanning, who had booed Obama, said in an interview, “I’m not that wild about McCain, but he’s the lesser of the two evils.”

Others clapped and were shocked to see Obama. Annostine Hall, 77, said, “I like everything about him, everything he has to say.”

Sheree Sawyer, 28, had tried to get into the Crown for the rally but left after standing in an unmoving line for an hour. Driving down Grove Street, she saw what looked like a motorcade at the restaurant.

She got to shake hands with the senator.

Obama draws 100,000 in St. Louis

A crowd of 100,000 - the largest U.S. crowd of the campaign - gathered to hear Barack Obama near the St. Louis Arch today.

"What a magnificent sight. All I can say is, 'wow!'" Obama said to the crowd, estimated at 90,000 by a St. Louis police spokesman, who said 10,000 more were filing into the rally.

Missouri, like North Carolina, has become a fiercely fought battleground state. Today, while McCain was in Concord and later Virginia, Obama talked taxes in St. Louis.

Said Obama: "Lately, Senator McCain has been attacking my middle class tax cut. He actually said it goes to, “those who don't pay taxes,” even though it only goes to working people who are already getting taxed on their paycheck. That's right, Missouri – John McCain is so out of touch with the struggles you are facing that he must be the first politician in history to call a tax cut for working people 'welfare.'"

In late August, Obama drew 84,000 when he accepted the Democratic nomination for president in Denver. In May, he drew 75,000 to an outdoor rally in Portland. Republican VP nominee Sarah Palin also has drawn large crowds, including an estimated 60,000 at rally in Florida last month.

McCain in Concord - live updates

(Updated, 11:28 a.m.) John McCain spoke in Concord today at the Cabarrus Arena & Events Center on N.C. Hwy 49. It was his second visit to the state this week.

11:28 a.m. - highlights: McCain prompted what might have been the biggest cheer of the morning with this line: "Gov. Sarah Palin sends her best."

He emphasized the campaign's new approach to contrasting his economic policies and Barack Obama's:

He believes in redistributing wealth, not in policies that grow our economy and create jobs and opportunities for all Americans.

He affirmed his current underdog status:

Let me give you the state of the race today. We have 17 days to go. We're 6 points down. The national media has written us off. Senator Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, and concede defeat in Iraq. But they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we've got them just where we want them.

He closed with what's become his standard and popular stump finish - a nod to the anxiety that Americans feel:

I know what fear feels like. It's a thief in the night who robs your strength.

I know what hopelessness feels like. It's an enemy who defeats your will.

I felt those things once before. I will never let them in again. I'm an American. And I choose to fight. Don't give up hope. Be strong. Have courage. And fight.

Fight for a new direction for our country. Fight for what's right for America.

11:05 a.m. - Text of the speech: McCain has begun. Here are the prepared remarks, in full.

10:45 a.m. - Enthusiasm: The Observer's Jim Morrill reports that the crowd is "getting fired up" at the Arena & Events Center. He estimates about 7,000 are there.

Jim says the podium is set up in the center of the arena, so McCain will be surrounded by people. One of them is Ruth Jonas, 63, of Charlotte. Jonas lost her job as a receptionist this year. She is a McCain/Palin supporter.

"I like their conservative views," she said. "I feel what he has to offer is a long-term solution for our country and not just short-term solutions like Obama."

Also, said Jonas: "I feel like my age is a big problem (in searching for a new job). I hope he is able to do more for senior citizens."

10:15 a.m. - Spreading the wealth: What will John McCain talk about today? If his recent speeches and radio address this morning are a guide - he'll mix in a little Joe the Plumber with a lot about Barack Obama's tax plan.

McCain mentioned Joe, the Ohio plumber who's not really a plumber, both yesterday and today (although Democrats gleefully note that Joe would benefit more under Obama's tax plan). Obama, however, told Joe this week that he wanted to "spread the wealth around," giving McCain a clear opening to attack.

Yesterday and today, McCain has tapped into the discomfort of conservatives - and perhaps others - with Obama's remark. The money line from yesterday's speech: "When politicians talk about taking your money and spreading it around, you'd better hold onto your wallet."

McCain, in contrast, said his plan calls for tax cuts for everyone - rich and poor. It is a stark Democrat/Republican difference in economic philosophy - and the McCain campaign clearly believes it now has found a way to frame it advantageously.

Said McCain on the radio address: "Joe, in his plainspoken way, said this sounded a lot like socialism. And a lot of Americans are thinking along those same lines. In the best case, "spreading the wealth around" is a familiar idea from the American left. And that kind of class warfare sure doesn't sound like a new kind of politics."

9:08 a.m. - Good morning: We'll be bringing you updates from the event and McCain's speech. If you're at the event, send us photos at online@charlotteobserver.com.

This is McCain's first trip to the Charlotte area in the general election, although he and his vice presidential candidate, Sarah Palin, have been frequent visitors recently to other N.C. cities, including Wilmington for McCain and Elon and Greensboro for Palin just this week.

North Carolina, with its 15 electoral votes, is among the tightest battleground races at the moment. After trailing Barack Obama here in late September, McCain has pulled into statistical tie in a composite of the past two weeks of polling.

The Observer's Jim Morrill explains this morning how N.C. became an election toss-up in this must-read story.

McCain - prepared remarks, Concord, N.C.

John McCain, prepared remarks.

Concord, N.C. - 10/18/2008, 11 a.m. ET:

It's great to be here in North Carolina. This is a must-win state on November 4th, and early voting is taking place now, so make sure you get out there and make your voice heard. With your help, we're going to win North Carolina, and bring change to Washington, DC.

We had a good debate this week, and I thought I did pretty well, but let's have some straight talk: the real winner this week was Joe the Plumber. Joe won, because he's the only person to get a real answer out of Senator Obama about his plans for our country. Congratulations Joe. That is an impressive achievement.

Now, Joe didn't ask for Senator Obama to come to his house, and he didn't ask to be famous. He certainly didn't ask for the political attacks on him from the Obama campaign. Joe's dream is to own a small business that will create jobs in his community, and the attacks on him are an attack on small businesses all over the country that employ 84% of Americans. We learned more about Senator Obama's plans from Joe's question than we've learned in months of speeches by Senator Obama.

We learned that Senator Obama's economic goal is, as he told Joe, is to quote "spread the wealth around." He believes in redistributing wealth, not in policies that grow our economy and create jobs and opportunities for all Americans. This explains some big problems with my opponent's claim that he will cut income taxes for 95 percent of Americans. You might ask: How do you cut income taxes for 95 percent of Americans, when more than 40 percent pay no income taxes right now? How do you reduce the number zero?

Well, that's the key to Barack Obama's whole plan: Since you can't reduce taxes on those who pay zero, the government will write them all checks called a tax credit. And the Treasury will have to cover those checks by taxing other people, including a lot of folks just like Joe. In other words, Barack Obama's plan to raise taxes on some in order to give checks to others is not a tax cut; it's just another government giveaway.

The Obama tax increase would come at the worst possible time for America, and especially for small businesses like the one Joe dreams of owning. The small businesses Senator Obama would tax provide 16 million jobs in America. And a sudden tax hike will kill some of those jobs at a time when need to be creating more jobs. I'm not going to let that happen.

America has an alternative to the phony tax cut my opponent started talking about only months ago. The McCain-Palin tax cut is the real thing. We're going to double the child deduction for every family. We will cut the capital gains tax. And we will cut business taxes to help create jobs, and keep American businesses in America.

As Joe has now reminded us all, America didn't become the greatest nation on earth by giving our money to the government to "spread the wealth around." In this country, we believe in spreading opportunity, for those who need jobs and those who create them. And that is exactly what I intend to do as President of the United States.

This is the choice that we face. These are hard times. Our economy is in crisis. Americans are fighting in two wars. We face many enemies in this dangerous world, and many challenges here at home.

The next President won't have time to get used to the office. He will have to act immediately. We cannot spend the next four years as we have spent much of the last eight: waiting for our luck to change. We have to act immediately. I said it at the last debate: I'm not George Bush; if Senator Obama wants to run against George Bush, he should have run for President 4 years ago. We need a new direction now. We have to fight for it.

I've been fighting for this country since I was seventeen years old, and I have the scars to prove it. If I'm elected President, I will fight to take America in a new direction from my first day in office until my last. I'm not afraid of the fight, I'm ready for it.

I'm not going to spend $700 billion dollars of your money just bailing out the Wall Street bankers and brokers who got us into this mess. I'm going to make sure we take care of the people who were devastated by the excesses of Wall Street and Washington. I'm going to spend a lot of that money to bring relief to you, and I'm not going to wait sixty days to start doing it.

I have a plan to protect the value of your home and get it rising again by buying up bad mortgages and refinancing them so if your neighbor defaults he doesn't bring down the value of your house with him.

I have a plan to let retirees and people nearing retirement keep their money in their retirement accounts longer so they can rebuild their savings.

I have a plan to hold the line on taxes and cut them to make America more competitive and create jobs here at home.

Raising taxes makes a bad economy much worse. Keeping taxes low creates jobs, keeps money in your hands and strengthens our economy.

The explosion of government spending over the last eight years has put us deeper in debt to foreign countries that don't have our best interests at heart. It weakened the dollar and made everything you buy more expensive.

If I'm elected President, I won't spend nearly a trillion dollars more of your money, on top of the $700 billion we just gave the Treasury Secretary, as Senator Obama proposes. Because he can't do that without raising your taxes or digging us further into debt. I'm going to make government live on a budget just like you do.

I will freeze government spending on all but the most important programs like defense, veterans care, Social Security and health care until we scrub every single government program and get rid of the ones that aren't working for the American people. And I will veto every single pork barrel bill Congresses passes.

If I'm elected President, I won't fine small businesses and families with children, as Senator Obama proposes, to force them into a new huge government run health care program, while he keeps the cost of the fine a secret until he hits you with it. I will bring down the skyrocketing cost of health care with competition and choice to lower your premiums, and make it more available to more Americans. I'll make sure you can keep the same health plan if you change jobs or leave a job to stay home.

I will provide every single American family with a $5000 refundable tax credit to help them purchase health care insurance. Workers who already have insurance from their employers will keep it and have more money to cover costs. Workers who don't have health insurance can use it to find policy anywhere in this country to meet their basic needs.

If I'm elected President, I won't raise taxes on small businesses, as Senator Obama proposes, and force them to cut jobs. I will keep small business taxes where they are, help them keep their costs low, and let them spend their earnings to create more jobs.

If I'm elected President, I won't make it harder to sell our goods overseas and kill more jobs as Senator Obama proposes. I will open new markets to goods made in America and make sure our trade is free and fair. And I'll make sure we help workers who've lost a job that won't come back find a new one that won't go away.

The last President to raise taxes and restrict trade in a bad economy as Senator Obama proposes was Herbert Hoover. That didn't turn out too well. They say those who don't learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat them. Well, my friends, I know my history lessons, and I sure won't make the mistakes Senator Obama will.

If I'm elected President, we're going to stop sending $700 billion to countries that don't like us very much. I won't argue to delay drilling for more oil and gas and building new nuclear power plants in America, as Senator Obama does.

We will start new drilling now. We will invest in all energy alternatives -- nuclear, wind, solar, and tide. We will encourage the manufacture of hybrid, flex fuel and electric automobiles. We will invest in clean coal technology. We will lower the cost of energy within months, and we will create millions of new jobs.

Let me give you the state of the race today. We have 17 days to go. We're 6 points down. The national media has written us off. Senator Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, and concede defeat in Iraq. But they forgot to let you decide. My friends, we've got them just where we want them.

What America needs in this hour is a fighter; someone who puts all his cards on the table and trusts the judgment of the American people. I have fought for you most of my life. There are other ways to love this country, but I've never been the kind to do it from the sidelines.

I know you're worried. America is a great country, but we are at a moment of national crisis that will determine our future. Will we continue to lead the world's economies or will we be overtaken? Will the world become safer or more dangerous? Will our military remain the strongest in the world? Will our children and grandchildren's future be brighter than ours?

My answer to you is yes. Yes, we will lead. Yes, we will prosper. Yes, we will be safer. Yes, we will pass on to our children a stronger, better country. But we must be prepared to act swiftly, boldly, with courage and wisdom.

I know what fear feels like. It's a thief in the night who robs your strength.

I know what hopelessness feels like. It's an enemy who defeats your will.

I felt those things once before. I will never let them in again. I'm an American. And I choose to fight. Don't give up hope. Be strong. Have courage. And fight.

Fight for a new direction for our country. Fight for what's right for America.

Fight to clean up the mess of corruption, infighting and selfishness in Washington.

Fight to get our economy out of the ditch and back in the lead.

Fight for the ideals and character of a free people.

Fight for our children's future.

Fight for justice and opportunity for all.

Stand up to defend our country from its enemies.

Stand up, stand up, stand up and fight. America is worth fighting for. Nothing is inevitable here. We never give up. We never quit. We never hide from history. We make history.

Now, let's go win this election and get this country moving again.

Sarah Palin: 'I know Obama loves America'

Palin, perhaps signaling a shift in campaign tone, tells CBS News that she thinks Barack Obama is doing what he thinks is in the best interest of the country.

Said Palin to CBS reporter Scott Conroy this afternoon:

I’m sure that is why he’s running for president. It’s because he wants to do what he believes is in the best interest of this great nation. I believe that our ticket can do a better job for America as we reduce taxes and reign in government and allow our private sector and our families to prosper, to grow, and to keep more of what they earn and produce so that they can reinvest according to our own priorities. I think that that is best to get the economy back on track. It’s a better agenda for America. But I don’t question at all Barack Obama’s love for this great country.

Conroy also notes the absence of 1960s radical Bill Ayers from Palin's recent campaign speeches (although the campaign is still emphasizing the Obama/Ayers relationship in robocalls to battleground states). Says Palin: "It’s up now to the people of America to decide whether that association is important enough to them to research and find out more about a person’s judgment and truthfulness.”

Palin also said it was up to John McCain whether the campaign would reintroduce Rev. Jeremiah Wright to the public discussion. Obama, she said, "sat in the pews for 20 years and heard Reverend Wright say some things that most people would find a bit concerning. But again that is John McCain's call."

Conservative Chicago Tribune endorses Obama

We promise not to overplay the importance of endorsements, but we will note the notable.

For the first time in its 161-year history, the Chicago Tribune is endorsing the Democratic Party's nominee for president.

Said the Tribune:

Many Americans say they're uneasy about Obama. He's pretty new to them. We can provide some assurance.

We have known Obama since he entered politics a dozen years ago. We have watched him, worked with him, argued with him as he rose from an effective state senator to an inspiring U.S. senator to the Democratic Party's nominee for president.

We have tremendous confidence in his intellectual rigor, his moral compass and his ability to make sound, thoughtful, careful decisions. He is ready.

Read the whole endorsement here. On a practical level, the nod doesn't count for much in a state where Obama leads by a wide margin. But the symbolism is inescapable.

While the topic is open - politicos are buzzing (and Politico is reporting) about the possibility of former secretary of state and retired Gen. Colin Powell endorsing Obama on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday. Such a nod might give Obama a running start into next week.

Tell us what you think.

Early N.C. voting - your Day 1 numbers

Democrats and blacks showed first-day voting enthusiasm in N.C., according to state Board of Elections numbers from yesterday.

The breakdown of the 113,809 first-day voters:

Democrats, 64%, Republicans, 21%, Unaffiliated, 15%

White, 61%, Black, 36%

Compare those figures to total registered voter percentages as of Oct. 17 (party) and Oct. 11 (race):

Democrats, 46%, Republicans, 32%, Unaffiliated 22%

White, 74%, Black, 21%

The first day black turnout is similar to the early turnout in Georgia, where 36 percent of early voters are black (compared to 29 percent black registered voters.)

The early-vote numbers in both states are likely to revert closer to the registered voter percentages as we near Nov. 4. How much they do that in N.C. will go a long way toward determining who wins the state.

Experts have estimated that Barack Obama needs the black turnout in N.C. needs to be 22-23 percent for him to win. In 2004, blacks made up 18.6 percent of voters.

Want to hear the N.C. robocalls?

There have been four reported in the state this week, each coming from the McCain campaign or the Republican National Committee.

The calls also are going out in substantial waves to households in several battleground states, including Ohio, Colorado, and Virginia, which along with N.C. are the tightest races at the moment.

Now, the term "robocall" instantly connotes dirty politics, so some caveats to consider:

The McCain campaign and/or the Republican National Committee take credit for the calls - there's no hiding behind the darkened windows of 527's or other special interest groups.

The robocalls - with one notable exception - say nothing that John McCain didn't or wouldn't say in his debates with Obama.

The first two calls are rather mild - standard stump speech stuff - one saying Obama chooses Hollywood over America because he attended a fundraiser when the Wall Street crisis was beginning to break, the other saying Obama will bring "one trillion dollars in big-government bureaucracy, higher taxes, and more wasteful spending that our children will have to pay for."

The third - much tougher - slams Obama for opposing a bill that would care for babies that survived late-term abortion. (Obama and fact check organizations say this attack, which McCain pursued in the final presidential debate, is "dishonest." There already was an Illinois law providing for such care.)

And finally, the one that's getting most of the attention. "You need to know that Barack Obama has worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers, whose organization bombed the U.S. Capitol, the Pentagon, a judge's home, and killed Americans," the message says. "And Democrats will enact an extreme leftist agenda if they take control of Washington. Barack Obama and his democratic allies lack the judgment to lead our country."

Here's where the call departs from the candidate. McCain frequently has told voters and reporters that he "doesn't care about some washed up terrorist" and is more concerned about Obama's truthfulness on the matter. The robocall, however, emphasizes that Obama "worked closely" with Ayers (an assertion roundly declared an exaggeration).

The robocall strategy allows McCain to take the high road, while his campaign takes the low road - a tactic political candidates and campaigns have long used, in one form or another. Dems can take rightfully take issue with the messages here, but the method of distribution is largely irrelevant.

(A grateful hat tip to Greg Sargent at Talking Points Memo for supplying the calls. Received any other such calls from either campaign? Tell me/Send me.)

Morning Buzz: Party treason?

Today, in a column sure to be crumpled by his fellow conservatives, David Brooks of the New York Times says he sees in Barack Obama the qualities of a great president.

In the Washington Post, Kathleen Parker explains this morning why her fellow conservative, Christopher Buckley, endorsed Obama this week.

Much has been written here and elsewhere this election about Democrats possibly turning from their party - specifically women stung by Hillary Clinton's loss in the primaries. Recent weeks have brought a different dissension - prominent Republicans critical of John McCain or, in the case of Brooks, acknowledging that Obama is more than capable for the job.

For Buckley, the son of the father of the conservative moment, William F. Buckley, endorsing Obama seemed less about the Democrat than it was about Republicans. Eight years of GOP rule, he wrote, have afflicted us with "a doubled national debt, ruinous expansion of entitlement programs, bridges to nowhere, poster boy Jack Abramoff and an ill-premised, ill-waged war conducted by politicians of breathtaking arrogance."

Several Republicans I've spoken with share Buckley's sentiment, and many believe what their party needs best to rediscover itself is four years of a liberal president and Congress.

So just as we asked Democrats earlier this election: Are you considering voting against your party? Tell us what you think.

Your morning buzz:

John McCain and Barack Obama, joking together? Yes, at the Al Smith Memorial Dinner in New York last night, the New York Times reports.

You'll probably not be surprised: The Washington Post endorses Obama.

The Post also explains sets up the battle in Virginia - will Obama's ground game overcome recent Republican enthusiasm?

Politico shows Obama ahead in some key counties across the country.

Newsweek's Joel Stein heads to Ohio to conduct the general election's first exit poll.

Which candidate has a better temperament for the job? Time explores in a fascinating historical look.

The political winner of the day is...

The rise and fall of Joe the Plumber takes less than one day. But what about the policy argument he represents? The Ballot breaks Thursday down. 

The words: McCain and VP Sarah Palin begin to float a tax attack that might have some legs - framing Obama's plan as a "redistribution of wealth." Obama, making up for missed opportunity last night, reminds N.H. voters that McCain and Bush share economic philosophies. Edge: McCain.

The numbers: McCain tightens national tracker polls a smidge; Obama still leads by 2 to 11 points*. McCain also pulls into Ohio tie. Are we seeing a shift in momentum? For now, it's still ... Edge: Obama.

The lasting (for better or worse) image: Who else but Joe? On Wednesday, he is thrust into political stardom, the face of John McCain's case against the Obama tax plan. One day later, he is not really a plumber, and not at all licensed - but he does have a tax lien against him. Edge: Obama.

The winner:

Another day closer to Nov. 4. But we wonder: conservatives don't like the concept of "sharing the wealth." Do independents feel the same? McCain should at least try to find out. 

*Gallup now releases two polls each day. The traditional Likely Voter poll, which has Obama leading McCain by two, only surveys people who intend to vote and have voted in past elections. The expanded Likely Voter polls, which Obama leads by six, does not remove people who have registered since the last election and intend to vote this year.

Joe the Plumber update

Because we're sure you want to know: Joe the Plumber does not have a plumbing license, has no concrete plans to own a business, and might have to vote provisionally in the Ohio election.

Joe Wurzelbacher, whose story John McCain used last night to poke at Barack Obama's tax plan, is learning today what most sudden celebrities do - that the second 15 minutes of fame aren't nearly as much fun as the first.

Wurzelbacher is the Toledo man Barack Obama spoke to this week while making a surprise door-to-door canvass of an Ohio neighborhood. Wurzelbacher told Obama - and later reporters - that Obama's tax plan might be an obstacle to him buying a plumbing business.

McCain pounced on the moment to illustrate the victims of Obama taxing citizens and businesses that make more than $250,000. Obama made his own appeal to Joe. Katie Couric called. Suddenly, Joe was political and media gold.

Today, however, Wurzelbacher told a swarm of reporters that the whole owning a business thing was a little premature. He and the owner of the plumbing business where he works have talked about him taking it over at some point. "There's a lot I've got to learn," he said.

The Toledo Blade is reporting that Wurzelbacher does not have a plumbing license, and that according to Ohio building regulations, he must maintain his own license to do plumbing work. He is also not registered to operate as a plumber in Ohio, which means he’s not, technically, Joe the Plumber.

Wurzelbacher also might have a small issue with his voter registration, reports the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Because of a discrepancy in the spelling of his name on voter records, he might have to vote provisionally this election. Wurzelbacher apparently did vote in the Ohio primary this year as a registered Republican, the Plain Dealer reports. He was a member of the Natural Law Party in previous elections.

The moral here is not that Joe is a bad guy. It's not that McCain's larger points about taxes are necessarily invalid. It's that we should be cautious with any political narrative we hear.

McCain, by the way, told Fox News that he might be giving Wurzelbacher a call. "I think we're going to be spending some time together," McCain said.

With satellite trucks surrounding his house and bloggers poking into public records and more, Wurzelbacher might not take him up on the offer. Would you?

(Update: Uh oh. ABC News is reporting that Joe has a lien against him for unpaid taxes in 2007.)

(Update No. 2: An Ohio TV station, NBC24, attempts to answer the question of what kind of license Joe needs:

"A representative with Toledo Building Inspection says a plumber must be registered with the state and only then may they apply for a Toledo Plumbing Contractor's license.

Al Newell is a licensed plumbing contractor in the city of Toledo. Anyone working under him should have a journeyman's plumbing license or an apprenticeship license. According to Toledo Building Inspection, Newell is responsible for making sure anyone working under him is licensed.

Joe Wurzelbacher does not have an Ohio or city plumbing license.

The City of Toledo Plumbing Board of Control may consider a punishment for Wurzelbacher and/or Newell.")

The debate professor picks a winner

The final presidential debate wasn't decided by attacks - but by follow-ups, says The Ballot's debate scholar and coach.

Allan Louden, a renowned political communications professor at Wake Forest, was a debate coach for Elizabeth Dole in her successful 2002 U.S. Senate bid, as well as a coach in the 2004 Montana governor's race. His web site, debatescoop.com, covers all things debating.

How did the candidates do last night?

First, the complete transcript of the debate.

Says the professor:

I predicted fireworks. Indeed, there were several fuses lit, but each fizzled before reaching the powder keg. And it wasn’t for lack of trying on John McCain’s part. He raised the specter of character and suspect policy on dozens of topics. Yet it would be hard to point to any one that stuck.

I was reminded of watching collegiate debaters when they cross examine each other. Many debaters ask telling questions, but don’t know how to ask the follow-up questions, the ones that tag their opponent with ownership of an untenable position. You can see how the argument would change the debate’s verdict, but the application has to be nailed by the one making the argument.

Obama won the debate last night, and the fault is not a fawning media or a once-too-clever Barack. The responsibility rests with McCain; he alone raised the telling questions, stumbled in rebuttal specifics, and couldn’t fix the focus. At some point he has ownership of his own performance.

McCain did hold sway in the early stages of the debate, hard charging, on the offense. Yet Obama, often with a passion reminiscent of Dukakis, systematically parried each accusation.

Even if one charitably called the debate a push, the political landscape leaves Obama the winner. And it is more than that. Obama prevailed in rebuttal specifics, political consolidation, and presidential deportment. Obama was conversational, McCain insistent; Obama precise, McCain shotgun; Obama composed, McCain agitated. Translation, Obama was not just “presidential enough,” he was presidential.

I offer this conclusion with some reluctance. My instincts are to resist a predictable response by the punditry and to hear what people mean not just what they say. Surely I filter the debate with a generational ear or a “libertarian” bias, yet taken as a whole, McCain did not come close to reinventing the election’s context, and that is a loss.

Before leaving an impression that Obama was simply one-dimensional —dispassionate— it also was the case that he had wit, spontaneity as when he addressed the debate’s star, Joe the Plumber: “And I’m happy to talk to you, Joe, too, if you’re out there.” At times it felt like Obama was actually having fun, demonstrating humor – bemused

McCain had his moments. He was better than in the last debate. His quotable moment was “Sen. Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago. I’m going to give a new direction to this economy in this country.” The clip illustrates how it went: a strong attack, a pointed negation, effectively taking issues off the campaign table.



If “I’m not Bush” was McCain’s best moment in the debate, as many commentators are characterizing the debate this morning, the Obama campaign was ready this morning with a rebuttal, likely persuasive for anyone not imbued in campaign minutia. Obama’s ad deploys McCain from the debate and before the debate with testimony against self.



McCain found a comfort zone when he was drawing the contrasts of political philosophy; income redistribution, free trade, vouchers. He drew comparisons that could ground a winning strategy with lines like “That’s big government at its best” or “Sen. Obama wants government to do the job. I want, Joe, you to do the job.”

A slip of the tongue was perhaps telling when he referred to Obama as “Senator Government.”
“This really gets down to the fundamental difference in our philosophies. If you notice that in all of this proposal, Senator — government wants — Sen. Obama wants government to do the job.”


Yet McCain continued to step on his own command in the debate. At times drifting into momentary incoherence, grasping at too many ideas in one answer, thrashing about as if afraid to leave any potential stone unturned. Consider this answer. It is about Obama’s associations, his lying, the economy or taxes or economic empathy?


“It’s the fact that all the — all of the details (about Ayers) need to be known about Sen. Obama’s relationship with them and with ACORN and the American people will make a judgment.
And my campaign is about getting this economy back on track, about creating jobs, about a brighter future for America. And that’s what my campaign is about and I’m not going to raise taxes the way Sen. Obama wants to raise taxes in a tough economy. And that’s really what this campaign is going to be about.”

Often McCain worked a well-built answer, as his with description of the ideal process for confirming Supreme Court nominees, only to let the air out of his own argument. Is there anyway to hear this line other than a contradiction?

“I would consider anyone in their qualifications. I do not believe that someone who has supported Roe v. Wade that would be part of those qualifications. But I certainly would not impose any litmus test.”

Obama by contrast did not rain on his own parade. One may not like his answers, but they worked as a whole reinforcing across the ninety minutes his bottom-line theme “…the biggest risk we could take right now is to adopt the same failed policies and the same failed politics that we’ve seen over the last eight years.”

When tagged with Ayers, for example, he pivoted:


“Let me tell you who I associate with. On economic policy, I associate with Warren Buffett and former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. If I’m interested in figuring out my foreign policy, I associate myself with my running mate, Joe Biden or with Dick Lugar, the Republican ranking member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, or General Jim Jones, the former supreme allied commander of NATO.


Those are the people, Democrats and Republicans, who have shaped my ideas and who will be surrounding me in the White House. And I think the fact that this has become such an important part of your campaign, Sen. McCain, says more about your campaign than it says about me.”


And McCain was not the only one of the offense. At one point Obama invoked not just policy but the tone of the entire campaign.


“Recently his key economic adviser was asked about why he didn’t seem to have some specific programs to help young people go to college and the response was, well, you know, we can’t give money to every interest group that comes along. I don’t think America’s youth are interest groups, I think they’re our future.”

Most of my thoughts following the debate focused on McCain. I expect that is fair as the onus was on him last night to change the campaign’s course. It did not happen. I would be surprised if the Hofstra debate continues to exist in the Friday news cycle.

The final debate - reactions

What do polls, pundits and factcheckers have to say about the final presidential debate?

Later this morning, the Ballot's debate scholar and coach, Wake Forest's Allan Louden, will offer his entertaining and insightful analysis.

Here are The Ballot's post-debate impressions last night.

The numbers: A CNN poll of debate watchers had Obama winning the debate, 58-31. A CBS poll of uncommitted voters had Obama winning 53-22, with 25 percent saying it was a tie. A Politico/Insider Advantage polls of undecideds also gave it to Obama, 49-46.

The facts: Factcheck.org says that spin and hype made appearances once again in the final debate.

The Washington Post's Eugene Robinson says McCain lost because of ideas, not grouchiness.

Conservative columnist Kathleen Parker tells the Post that McCain needed to win, but didn't.

Time's Mark Halperin gives McCain an A- and Obama a B.

Politico's Roger Simon says McCain failed to rattle Obama.

Newsweek's Andrew Romano says some of what McCain tossed at Obama stuck - but probably not enough.

Tell us what you think. Also, are you early voting today? Send me your reports from the line. Who won?

The final debate - impressions

There was confrontation. There was substance. There was Bill Ayers, but not really. Who won the final debate?

The early impressions:

The words: McCain comes out strong on taxes - forcing Obama to argue the issue in the context of "Joe the Plumber," a businessman penalized by Obama's plan. McCain also does his best job of the debates in neutralizing Obama's efforts to tie him to George Bush. ("Senator Obama, I am not President Bush.") Obama is strongest in the second half of the debate - combining vision and details on energy and using the now famous Joe the Plumber to leave McCain stammering on health care.

The Bill Ayers issue: A surprising non-factor. Obama preemptively brings Ayers up, then deflects McCain's questions on both Ayers and ACORN. McCain attempts to make the issue about Obama's truthfulness, but Obama's answer is direct, believable. The issue is dropped.

The images: McCain is engaging, confrontational, spirited. Yes, he's too condescending at times, and yes, he spends too much time on Obama, not himself. But if this McCain had attended the first debate, we'd have a different race right now. Obama begins nervously, seemingly uncomfortable with the format and McCain's directness. But Obama finds his policy voice on health care and education, recovering to finished poised.

The winner: McCain, narrowly. He didn't get the clear victory or clear moment that many think he needed. He did, however, find the ideological contrasts that might be the foundation for a comeback.

Palin in Elon; McCain in Concord

The McCain campaign continues its recent courting of North Carolina, with two more appearances from the ticket this week.

Sarah Palin will hold a rally tomorrow at Elon University's Lathom Park-Newsome Field. Doors open at Noon for the 3:15 p.m. event.

McCain will appear Saturday morning at the Cabarrus Arena & Events Center on N.C. Hwy. 49. Doors open at 8 a.m. for the 10 a.m. event.

A Public Policy Polling survey yesterday showed McCain tightening the N.C. race from a six-point Barack Obama lead last week to 3 this week - a bump that might be attributed to appearances by Palin in Greenville last week and McCain in Wilmington on Monday.

"Rampant" N.C. fraud? No, says irked official

Johnnie Mclean, Deputy Director of the N.C. Board of Elections, is steamed.

This morning, Republican National Committee chief counsel Sean Cairncross and spokesman Danny Diaz told reporters on a conference call that voter registration fraud is "rampant" in North Carolina. The culprit, they said, is ACORN, the Chicago-based community organizer under scrutiny for such fraud in several states.

How rampant is it in N.C.?

Not at all, Mclean told The Ballot moments ago.

"It just hit my last nerve, I think," she says.

The Board of Elections has identified 135 fraudulent registration applications out of about 700,000 received this election season, Mclean says. Those bogus applications, she says, appear to have created "by a lazy worker" hired by ACORN.

One of the applications came from Mecklenburg County, 104 from Durham County, and 30 from Wake County. None of the applications made it into the statewide database.

ACORN has submitted about 18,000 new applications this year. "They really have tried to improve the process over the years," Mclean said.

RNC spokesman Diaz argued that a percentage of the false forms may end up leading to voter fraud. Experts and election officials say that fictionalized voter registrations rarely result in people casting ballots.

As for the N.C. claims, says Mclean: "For somebody to say that with no apparent evidence to support it, it just doesn't do very much to establish trust in the elections process."

(hat tip to the News & Observer's Ryan Teague Beckwith for RNC call.)

James Taylor holding free N.C. concerts for Obama campaign

The music legend will appear in Charlotte on Sunday, the Obama campaign announced this afternoon. Details to come.

Taylor, a Chapel Hill native, will hold five concerts in all - Charlotte and Asheville on Sunday, Chapel Hill on Monday, and Raleigh and Wilmington on Tuesday.

Said Obama's N.C. campaign: "Taylor will help spread Senator Obama’s message of change to Tar Heel voters and encourage Obama supporters to get out and vote early."

Past concerts for the campaign have been used not only as musical rallies, but as database builders, with concert attendees leaving their names and contact info for the Obama campaign. If Obama wins the election, election scholars will point to efforts like these as part a campaign that changed campaigning.

Debate professor: Get ready for fireworks

Allan Louden explains why - and he suggests how McCain might light the fuse.

Louden, a political communications professor at Wake Forest, was a debate coach for Elizabeth Dole in her successful 2002 U.S. Senate bid, as well as a coach in the 2004 Montana governor's race. His web site, debatescoop.com, covers all things debating.

Before the second presidential debate, Louden warned about the dangers of going negative. This time, he says, McCain has little choice.

Says the professor:

The time is NOW! Expect a more lively debate tonight when McCain and Obama meet for their third and final debate at Hofstra University.

The campaign and the economy show signs of chaos. Why would the debate be otherwise? Previewing the first two presidential debates, I envisaged practically sedate affairs. And that largely is what we witnessed.

Civility was required not just by the human dimension of how voters evaluate candidates, formats, and the enormity of making a miscue, but it also made sense with the existing political landscape. The campaigns were still in range of each other, awaiting an economic verdict.

Two debates later, the political world is a different place. And McCain cannot wait any longer. A repeat of the first two debates - competent, courteous, with each candidate speaking the language of their faithful - would be a win for Obama, cementing trends. McCain needs a seismic shift.

There are basics that, short of a mistake beyond evocation, make McCain’s task difficult. They also are the reasons, despite constraints, we cannot rule out real fireworks.

The Narrative is set

Two debates (and one VP debate) have established the plot line. The candidates did their jobs, resulting in ties, which became within days noteworthy voter preference for Obama/Biden. You can quibble with this account, but it has legs, and by extension dominion over the last debate.

McCain needs to trump this by “changing the rules,” advancing a sustained surgical attack. Risky? Sure. But it is time to roll the dice.

Format

The candidates are scheduled to sit side-by-side occupying shared conversational space, common wisdom holding that good manners are required. Usually deference dominates.

Yet the playing field has shifted, and we’re late in the 4th quarter.

If you think candidates cannot trade directed and spontaneous barbs in a sit-down, please recall the February Clinton-Obama slugfest in Cleveland, OH.

Al Gore must still wish he’d shown fire in his 2000 love-fest Wake chapel chat.

Third Debates Evaporate

Tonight’s encounter is only the sixth 3rd presidential debate in history, and the first five were largely forgettable. Typically, third debates are redundant, suffer voter fatigue, and lack interest for a media anxious to predict the election’s “end game.”

The “next thing” beckons. Compared to the first two debates, where some intrigue remains, post-debate analysis quickly melts away.

To make the debate count, McCain needs to do something that is worth covering the next day and next and the next; something which lasts days out.

How can McCain change the headlines?

Circumstances allow McCain’s return to his favored “underdog” role, tapping our fairness sentiment.

He also has considerably more freedom in this debate. There is no time to obsess about stirring up “angry” McCain coverage; the goal is to overpower that story with an encounter that commands the stage.

I’m not sure “terrorist” Ayers is the entree as McCain telegraphed from the campaign trail yesterday. Obama’s response is unpredictable, with many potent counters available.

If the spectacle of Ayers is raised, the charge should not be about some vague notion of “palling around with terrorists” but rather laser persistence in calling out Obama’s evolving stories. Directness combined with doggedness could provoke or evoke enough to define the next day(s) headlines.

An obvious option is to define the economic crisis, but a litany of detail will not write tomorrow’s coverage. A promising avenue is making crisp the ideological divide.

It is not my place to suggest what explosives McCain ought to lob, but I feel safe in noting the time-runs-out. There is a tipping point in the final stages of a campaign where the media isn’t interested in investigating new charges, exhausting new leads. It takes time for a storyline to develop that would impact voter decisions. Two weeks is pushing the envelope, making McCain’s debate demands all that more pressing.

Politico.com yesterday lamented “even the co-chairman of the Commission on Presidential Debates admits the first two debates have been oddly non-confrontational and lacking a “major screw-up or a major defining event.”

They sound disappointed. I may be mistaken, but look for more pyrotechnics from Long Island tonight.

Morning Buzz: McCain's challenge

How hard should John McCain go after Barack Obama tonight?

McCain doesn't necessarily need a clear victory in this final presidential debate. He needs a clear moment - a singular message that resonates with voters, a clip that plays again and again post-debate.

Will it be Bill Ayers? McCain will certainly bring up Obama's relationship with the 1960s radical, if only because he said he would, and because Obama has dared him to. McCain's campaign also has previewed a different punch - trying to link Obama with ACORN and voter registration fraud.

The attacks are playing well with folks who already plan to vote for the Republican, and the approach is perhaps plucking some rural Democrats who might be iffy about Obama.

But tucked in the numbers of a 14-point deficit this morning is a warning: 60 percent of voters in a CBS/New York Times survey said McCain has spent more time attacking Obama than explaining positions. The same number said Obama spent more time explaining than attacking.

McCain's challenge: He needs to change the course of the race, but that will be difficult to do merely by talking about his economic plan. Does he go for his moment - striking at Obama hard enough to make voters notice, and risking a backlash from some?

Tell us what you want to hear from McCain - and from Obama when Ayers and ACORN enter the discussion tonight.

Your morning buzz:

The New York Times says McCain's and Obama's new economic proposals fit neatly within their party's philosophies.

Georgetown's Jacques Berlinerblau looks ahead for the Washington Post - Palin or Romney in 2012?

Slate's Jack Shafer offers a just-in-case guide for reporters if McCain makes a comeback.

Experts warn Politico that we might see voting meltdowns on Nov. 4.

Time's Peter Gray asks: Is Obama doing enough to ensure the black vote?

The political winner of the day is...

John McCain unveils new economic proposals and a (sort of) new offensive on Obama. The Ballot breaks down the day. 

The words: McCain unveils significant pension and security plan (hello, senior voters!). VP steps on the message a bit, telling Rush that Obama should rein in ACORN. Still, a strong economic appeal to a critical demographic. Edge: McCain.

The numbers: Obama maintains large national tracking poll lead and 14-point CBS/NYT poll lead. He also gets good battleground news in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin. McCain tightens race in North Carolina. Edge: Obama.

The lasting (for better or worse) image: Obama running ads on Xbox. Political genius or a fantastic waste of money? Edge: Unknown.

The winner:

He controls the day's discussion. Talking points - pension/Ayers/ACORN - are ready. A little Mo heading into the final debate.

Obama: "We don't need ACORN's help"

Barack Obama, seeking to nip a growing storyline, told reporters today that his campaign already had the best voter registration and turnout game in politics.

The comments came in response to Sarah Palin, who told Rush Limbaugh today that "Obama has a responsibility" to rein in ACORN, a community organizing group under investigation in several states for registering thousands of voters under fake names, including sports stars and other celebrities. Palin said Obama should act because of his previous relationship to ACORN.

Said Obama: "My relationship to ACORN is pretty straightforward. It's probably 13 years ago when I was still practicing law, I represented ACORN and my partner in that representation was the U.S. Justice Department in having Illinois implement what was called the "motor voter" law, to make sure that people could go to DMVs and driver's license facilities to get registered. It wasn't being implemented. That was my relationship, and is my relationship to ACORN."

Obama said he had other contact with ACORN through its Chicago office as a local official, but that ACORN was not advising his campaign. He speculated that ACORN's troubles came from individuals who submitted false registrations to get paid by the organization, and he cast doubt on those troubles influencing the election.

"This isn't a situation where there's actually people who are going to try to vote, because these are phony names. It's doubtful Tony Romo is going to show up in Ohio to vote," he said.

As his campaign has previously, Obama reminded reporters that Democrats have been victimized by Republican vote suppression schemes. "Let's just make sure everybody is voting, everybody's registered," he said. "Let's make sure that everybody's doing it in a lawful way."

McCain, Dole make it closer in N.C.

John McCain's attacks on Barack Obama may be paying interesting dividends in North Carolina, according to a new survey today from Raleigh's Public Policy Polling.

McCain trails Barack Obama by three points, 49-46 percent, an improvement over the six-point deficit McCain faced in last week's PPP poll.

The U.S. Senate race in North Carolina also has narrowed - with Democrat Kay Hagan's lead shrinking from nine points to two, 46-44, over Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole.

McCain may be benefitting from a new attentiveness to the state. He visited N.C. for the first time in the general election Monday, and vice president Sarah Palin held a rally in Greenville last week.

McCain, however, is not getting a bump from independents, who favor Obama by a 52-37 margin, up from 46-40 last week. Instead, McCain has dented Obama's advantage among Democrats - 79-18 this week, 82-15 last week.

PPP pollster Tom Jensen tells me that Obama's drop among Democrats came mostly in rural areas, perhaps the most fertile ground for McCain's attacks on Obama's perceived "extremism."

Hagan, who also lost three points with Democratic voters, experienced drops in the suburbs, rural areas and small towns. She held her numbers only in N.C.'s urban areas.

Race and the polls - an issue?

Is Barack Obama's lead in the polls built, in part, on whites who are reluctant to tell pollsters they aren't voting for a black candidate? The Ballot asked two N.C.-based pollsters what they think.

The phenomenon - called the "Bradley effect" - was accepted political gospel not long ago. Its source is the 1982 gubernatorial race in California, where black candidate Tom Bradley despite leading a white opponent by about a half-dozen points in late polls. (Bradley's internal pollster, Lance Tarrance, says there was no "effect" in 1982 - his polls showed an even race.)

Certainly, other states have their versions of the phenomenon. North Carolinians remember Charlotte mayor Harvey Gantt losing to Jesse Helms in the 1990 U.S. Senate race despite leading in two polls days before the election. And a wise Alabama woman once told me that you'd have a hard time finding a soul to tell you they were voting for George Wallace, who still managed to serve four terms as governor.

But is the Bradley effect - and its local variations - a relic of a less toleranet era? Or does Obama need a cushion in the polls in North Carolina and elsewhere as insurance against racial uneasiness with him?

We asked Tom Jensen of Raleigh's Public Policy Polling, a national pollster which does work for Democratic candidates and other organizations, and Chris Hayes of Civitas, a right-leaning pollster.

Jensen: I do not think the Bradley Effect will be an issue this year, and I actually think that Barack Obama will outperform the polls both in North Carolina and nationally, just as he did during the primaries. Particularly with so much polling being automated these days, I don’t see a social desirability component present this year that would cause white McCain supporters to feel like they should say they support Obama when they get polled.

At the same time I think pollsters are likely to continue to underestimate not just the turnout from black and young voters, but also the extent to which those groups will support Obama. If the polls across the country are systematically off one way or the other, I think it’s more likely to be a couple points in Obama’s direction than in McCain’s.

Hayes: In 2008 North Carolina, I don’t think it will have as much of an effect. The influx of new voters and the ageing out of the older, rural whites has made this a different state. So I don’t think we’ll that type of effect in the polling this year as then.

Second, we have to consider if it is a “Bradley effect” on the polls or is it the polls themselves that are sampling the population accurately? Turnout for this election is anyone’s guess. It is widely assumed that African-American turnout will be through the roof, but will it? We see it in increased voter registration and with increased percentages of African-Americans in our polls, but there is still that great unknown.

Some of the national polling websites have shown some evidence of a “Reverse Bradley” effect, where Obama has been polling worse than his actual results, but again, is that the sample telling the pollster one thing and voting another or is it the pollster not sampling the right people?

The other really big thing out there is the inherent margin of error in polls. If a poll taken before the election shows Obama getting 50 percent and he winds up with 47, is that a Bradley effect, or is that just the margin of error of the poll – with most in the 3-4% range? It’s impossible to tell.

My conclusion, I don’t think there will be a Bradley effect, and if there is, it will not be discernible from the margin of error of the polling.

McCain: Let's talk Ayers at debate

John McCain told a St. Louis radio show that he will likely bring up William Ayers at tomorrow's debate with Barack Obama.

McCain told KMOX's Mark Reardon that he was "astonished" that Obama suggested last week that McCain was reluctant to mention Ayers to his face.

Said McCain, chuckling: "I think he's probably ensured that it will come up this time."

McCain said he would discuss the 1960s radical in the context of Obama being truthful with the American people - not only about Ayers, but other topics.

A good idea? Tell us what you think.

(Update: Here's the Obama campaign's response, in a newly released radio spot. Says the narrator: "Bill Ayers is a professor of education who once served with Obama on a school reform board, a board funded by conservative Republicans tied to McCain. When Ayers committed crimes in the '60s, Obama was 8 years old. Obama condemned those despicable acts. Ayers has had no role in Obama's campaign, and will have no role in his administration.")

(h/t: Mark Halperin)

Morning Buzz: promises, promises

Who says the candidates can't find common ground in this volatile election?

Yesterday, at the top of Barack Obama's new economic proposals, was a $3,000-per-job tax credit for small businesses who create new jobs over the next few years. It is, essentially, a corporate tax cut.


This follows John McCain's bad loan bailout proposal, which called for the government to buy $300 billion in mortgages from banks and renegotiate their terms. Conservatives recoiled in big government horror.


What's happening is not difficult to see - McCain knows he has some cozying to do with middle class voters; Obama is putting his arm around small business owners who don't like his other tax proposals.


The result: billions more in spending programs, with only promises of compensatory cuts. It's what you find at the intersection of an election year and an economic crisis. (Or, as the Libertarians among us suspect, it's the next step in our evolution toward a social welfare state. In short, we're becoming France.)

Our question for you: Does the new economic proposals matter? Are they causing you to give either candidate a fresh look, or have second thoughts about your own?



Tell us what you think here.


Your morning buzz:


Big government is coming, says David Brooks of the New York Times.


Americans are more accustomed to black leadership, thanks to exposure on the local level, the NYT writes.


The Washington Post's Richard Cohen offers the questions he'd like to hear at tomorrow's debate.


And what would be the best format? Jeff Greenfield of Slate covers the possibilities.


Obama leads McCain in the country's bellwether counties, including N.C.'s Wake County, Politico reports.


Remember when this campaign was going to be "post-partisan" - the first step in both sides working together? The Wall Street Journal's Gerald Seib says we are as divided as ever.

The political winner of the day is...

Dueling economic speeches from John McCain and Barack Obama. The Ballot breaks down the day.

The words: McCain's "stand up and fight" versus Obama's "J-O-B-S" (and Hillary's "Jobs, baby jobs"). Voters already are fighting. They want details. Edge: Obama.

The numbers: Obama maintains 4- to 12-point leads in national tracking polls. He also gets good news in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Missouri - plus a North Dakota surprise. McCain gets good Georgia numbers. Late Fox/Rasmussen battleground polls show small Obama leads in Ohio, Missouri, Virginia and Florida, and a tie in North Carolina. Edge: Obama.

The lasting (for better or worse) image: McCain/Palin, in Virginia, serenaded by Mr. Hank Williams, Jr., economic historian. "The bankers didn't want to make all those bad loans/But Bill Clinton said you got to." Edge: McCain.

The winner:

McCain camp says it will offer new economic specifics Tuesday, followed by Wednesday debate. Turning into a must-win week for the Arizona senator. 

Biden: "I believe we're going to win North Carolina"

And Virginia, too. In an interview with the Observer's news partner, NewsChannel 36, Democratic VP Joe Biden explained why he thinks the Obama/Biden ticket will do well here.

Biden, who was in Manchester, N.H., also criticized John McCain ads linking Obama to 1960s radical William Ayers - "I think it's an irresponsible approach" - and he compared the two candidates' economic speeches today.

"Barack Obama went out there and told you what he's going to do to stimulate the economy..." Biden told NewsChannel 36's Dave Wagner. "What did John McCain do? John McCain went out there and he attacked Barack Obama again."

Obama's new plan: "J-O-B-S"

Barack Obama offered something for everyone - including his opponent - in an Ohio economic speech this morning.

Said Obama: "Today I’m proposing a number of steps that we should take immediately to stabilize our financial system, provide relief to families and communities, and help struggling homeowners. It’s a plan that begins with one word that’s on everyone’s mind, and it’s spelled J-O-B-S."

How does he propose to get there?

*A temporary tax credit for firms that create new jobs in the United States over the next two years.

*Proposed legislation to allow families to withdraw 15% of their retirement savings – up to a maximum of $10,000 – without facing a tax-penalty this year and next.

*A three-month moratorium on foreclosures for homeowners that are acting in good faith. (No specifics yet on how "good faith" is defined.) Financial institutions that participate in the Treasury’s financial rescue plan would be required to adhere to a homeowners code of conduct that includes the 90-day foreclosure moratorium.

*A new lending facility, developed by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury, that would lend to state and municipal governments, similar to the steps the Fed recently took to provide liquidity to the commercial paper market.

Finally, Obama also proposed a "new era of responsibility," saying that blame for the crisis lies everywhere. "Everyone was living beyond their means – from Wall Street to Washington to even some on Main Street," he said.

Obama will be lauded for the detail of his proposals, but such specifics leave him vulnerable to a new line of Republican attack. Although Obama said he will pay for the plans by deferring other programs and scouring the budget for unnecessary costs, Americans have great skepticism about any politician's capacity to say "no."

Look for Republicans to ask how an "era of responsibility" can be kicked off by so many more government spending programs.

What do you think?

McCain: The one-party plea

John McCain's speech this morning in Arlington, Va., had at least two notable previews of potential campaign themes.

The first was his harshest swipe yet at the Bush administration, an indication that McCain will make another charge at the change narrative.

Said McCain: "We cannot spend the next four years as we have spent much of the last eight: waiting for our luck to change."

The second was a subtler nod to a sentiment that's nagging at undecideds: Do we want Democrats controlling both the White House and Congress?

Said McCain: "Senator Obama is measuring the drapes, and planning with Speaker Pelosi and Senator Reid to raise taxes, increase spending, take away your right to vote by secret ballot in labor elections, and concede defeat in Iraq."

The message here is that electing McCain would put a check on what probably will be a heavily Democratic Congress. It's an appeal to those voters who believe their country needs to depart from the policies of the current administration, yet might have reservations about handing the keys and the wallet to a Democratic Congress and President.

Look for more of this theme not only from McCain, but from Republicans in tight Congressional races who will note their election would help counterbalance a likely Obama administration.

Is one-party domination a troubling prospect? Democrats, especially, tell us what you think.

Morning Buzz: What should McCain do?

There was sharp disagreement among discontented Republicans this weekend about what John McCain should do to save his campaign.

McCain is trailing by double digits in a new Washington Post/ABC poll this morning. He is facing a final chance in Wednesday night's debate to raise eyebrows. What should he say?

Some Republicans think McCain should attack Barack Obama harder on William Ayers - and reintroduce Rev. Jeremiah Wright in the discussion. Some think McCain's only chance to win the election is to win on the economy. (McCain met this weekend with economic advisers to develop a new plan to introduce to voters. That plan no longer includes more tax cuts, Politico reports.)

The only seeming agreement from the backseat drivers: McCain has run a poor campaign. But he has faced an enormous challenge representing the party in office, and campaigns - which are most difficult to run from behind - don't operate on a template. Even the best strategists spend their days adjusting messages that don't work and dropping attacks that utterly fail, until they find something that can allow them to be geniuses.

Our question for you: What should McCain do next? As a Republican voter, what do you want him to emphasize in the next three weeks? As a Democrat, what mistake do you hope he makes? As an undecided, what might you hear from him that could turn your vote?

Tell us what you think here.

Your morning buzz:

John McCain makes his first general election appearance in North Carolina today with a speech in Wilmington this afternoon.

The New York Times introduces us to the man who started the "Obama is a Muslim" rumor.

The Obama ground game: muscle or myth? The New York Times explores in a Sunday story.

As a POW, McCain thought seriously of being president, the Washington Post reports.

The Wall Street Journal says the "solid South" is not so secure for the GOP right now.

Think campaigns are ugly now? Please, says Newsweek.

Palin abused power, ethics panel says

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin unlawfully pushed to have her former brother-in-law fired as a state trooper, the chief investigator of an Alaska legislative panel concluded Friday.

Investigator Stephen Branchflower said in his report that Palin violated a statute of the Alaska Executive Branch Ethics Act that prohibits public officials from using their office for personal gain.

The report does not recommend sanctions or a criminal investigation.

Read the 263-page report here.

The inquiry looked into her dismissal of Public Safety Commissioner Walter Monegan, who said he lost his job because he resisted pressure to fire state trooper Mike Wooten, who was involved in a bitter divorce with Palin's sister.

Palin says Monegan was fired as part of a legitimate budget dispute. Branchflower said that Monegan's refusal to fire Wooten was a "substantial factor" in his dismissal but was not the only reason. Palin did have the authority to dismiss Monegan, the report said.

"I feel vindicated," Monegan told the Associated Press. "It sounds like they've validated my belief and opinions. And that tells me I'm not totally out in left field."

"I disagree," said Palin attorney Thomas Van Flein. "In order to violate the ethics law, there has to be some personal gain, usually financial. Mr. Branchflower has failed to identify any financial gain."

The investigation revealed that Palin's husband, Todd, has extraordinary access to the governor's office and her closest advisers. He used that access to try to get Wooten fired, the report found. Palin should have taken action to stop that, the report concluded.

Branchflower also said there was evidence the governor participated in the pressure, as well.

Before Palin became governor, Wooten faced disciplinary action over allegations that he drank beer in a patrol car and used a Taser on his pre-teen stepson.

Former Alaska State Trooper Col. Julia Grimes told investigators that Sarah Palin called her in late 2005 to discuss why Wooten hadn't been fired, and Grimes told her the inquiry was confidential by law.

"Her questions were how can a trooper who behaves this way still be working," Grimes said. "I asked her to please trust me, that because I can't tell her details I would ask her to please trust me that I would take the appropriate action if and when I knew what the findings were. ... I couldn't have another conversation with her about it because, again, it's protected by law."

Grimes said Todd Palin also contacted her by telephone in late 2005 to discuss the confidential investigation of Wooten.

Wooten's disciplinary case was settled in September 2006 — months before Palin was elected governor — and he was allowed to continue working as a trooper.

After Palin's election, her new public safety commissioner, Monegan, said he was summoned to the governor's office to meet Todd Palin, who said Wooten's punishment had been merely a "slap on the wrist."