The Day in Superdelegates

The latest from the votes that really count from this point on (sorry, West Virginia):

Barack Obama with four new superdelegates today, Hillary Clinton with one. One of Obama's four, however, is Virginia DNC member Jennifer McClellan, who had previously endorsed Clinton. So today's net total: Obama 4, Clinton 0.

The other three for Obama: N.C. party chair Jerry Meek, N.C. DNC member Jeannette Council, and California DNC member Inola Henry.

Clinton's endorsement comes from N.C. Rep. Heath Shuler, who said previously he would endorse whichever candidate won his district on May 6. That was Clinton, by 13 points.

Your superdelegate total: Clinton 270.5, Obama 258.

Your overall delegate total (with about a dozen in N.C. and Indiana yet determined): Obama 1,840.5, Clinton 1687. (2,025 needed for victory.)

It's N.C. Primary night

1:15 a.m. - Deciding: In one night, with one convincing victory, Barack Obama took the psychology out of the Democratic nomination Tuesday and made it about numbers again.

His victory in N.C. and close finish in Indiana leaves him needing about 30 of the 217 remaining pledged delegates to get a majority. That total, along with a popular vote margin Tuesday of about 200,000, leaves Florida and Michigan closer to irrelevant in the race to the nomination.

The Hillary Clinton campaign is urging everyone – read: superdelegates – to not get caught up in the moment and rally behind Obama. Will the supers listen and let Clinton find some West Virginia momentum six days from now? Or will they decide that the time for such notions is over?

1:12 a.m. - Clinton wins: With 99 percent reporting, Clinton leads by 22,000 votes.

12:40 a.m. - A little closer: With 95 percent reporting, the Clinton lead is just under 16,000. Lake County, including Chicago suburb Gary, has 44 percent remaining. CNN's John King says the votes coming in thus far from Lake are mostly from the northern Obama-leaning part of the state.

12 a.m. - Clinton cancels morning appearances: MSNBC's Tim Russert reports that Clinton, who was scheduled to appear on the morning shows tomorrow, has canceled."

11:40 p.m. - Indiana mayor predicts possible upset: The Washington Post's Alec MacGillis is reporting that Gary (Ind.) Mayor Rudy Clay is saying that the outstanding vote in Lake County, which includes Gary, might be enough to give Obama a victory.

Says the Post:

"Let me tell you, when all the votes are counted, when Gary comes in, I think you're looking at something for the world to see," Clay, an Obama supporter, said in a telephone interview from Obama's Gary headquarters. "I don't know what the numbers are yet, but Gary has absolutely produced in large numbers for Obama here."

The race has tightened to 20,000 votes with 9 percent left to report.

11:10 p.m. - A somber fighter: A reserved Hillary Clinton told Indiana voters that she will never give up on them, but that she "will work for the nominee of the Democratic party, because we must win in November."

The speech, intended to celebrate an Indiana victory, was instead an acknowledgment that the night had turned momentum away from her.

She began the speech as a fighter - "Tonight, Hoosiers have said that you do want a president who stands strong for you" - offering the middle class/gas tax/foreclosure freeze message that has given her campaign voice. "I believe that Americans need a champion in their corner," she said.

Yet, she said: "We have to acknowledge what's at stake in this election." She reminded voters that it's the Democratic party that's good for them.

This was, however, not a concession. "I want to be president of all America..." she said.

Translation: Count those Florida and Michigan votes.

10:40 p.m. - In case you were wondering...: Hillary Clinton addresses Indiana: "Thanks to you, it's full speed to the White House."

10 p.m. - What's happening in Indiana: Obama may be ready to concede, but the networks are waiting on Lake County, a suburban Chicago county in northwest Indiana. Lake, a county heavy with African-American votes, has no results reported yet.

Clinton is up four points with less than 20 percent left to count. Lake, and the other outstanding counties, likely won't hand Obama a victory, according to vote counters. But no one is taking any chances. The wait has to be terribly deflating to the Clinton campaign.

(Update, 10:20 p.m.: CNN says Indiana might not be called until midnight. MSNBC reporting that some Lake County votes might not be counted until then.)

9: 40 p.m. - Olive branch, then some swings: Obama says he doesn't believe the party won't come together in November.

"Yes, there have been bruised feelings," he says. "Yes, each side wants their candidate to win."

But: "This primary season may not be over, but when it is, we have to remember who we are as Democrats."

He follows with the speech he's been trying to make for weeks - a criticism of George Bush's economic policies and the war on Iraq. He nods to criticism - and iffy voters - with a reminder of his own humble background, his wife's, and his love for America.

To finish, a reminder of the big message: "We can still choose this moment to finally come together."

And: "This time can be different than all the rest."

9:20 p.m. - The winner speaks: In Raleigh, Obama says: "There are those who were saying that North Carolina would be a game changer. Today, what North Carolina decided is the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, D.C.."

He also beats the networks and congratulates Clinton on an apparent victory in Indiana.

Back to N.C.: It is, he says, "a state where we will compete to win if I am the Democratic nominee."

9 p.m. - Obama to speak soon: So says McClatchy reporter Margaret Telev in Raleigh.

8:45 p.m - Early upset special - Nick Mackey?: Early voters, plus a few early returns, give Mackey a 57-43 percent lead over incumbent Drew Saunders in the N.C. House District 99 Democratic race.

8:30 p.m. - How Obama won N.C., by the numbers: The Observer's Mark Johnson gives the full report on the exit polls.

Mark writes: Exit polls project Sen. Barack Obama will carry North Carolina by 55 percent to 42 percent for Sen. Hillary Clinton, a larger spread than polls projected in the last week.

The exit polls, conducted by the major television news networks, showed Clinton handily winning white voters, the subject of considerable wooing by both of the Democratic presidential contenders. Clinton took 59 percent to 36 percent for Obama. Among black voters, Obama won 91 percent compared to 6 percent for Clinton.

Obama won all income groups.

Voters picked the economy as their top issue, 60 percent, with Iraq coming in a distant second at 22 percent and health care at third, 15 percent.

The ability to enact change was the top quality in a candidate for 50 percent of voters, while experience was second at 22 percent.

More voters saw Obama as honest and trustworthy, 70 percent to Clinton's 47 percent, and more voters also see Obama as ready to be commander-in-chief, 49 percent to 45 percent who said the same about Clinton. (The numbers can exceed 100 percent because voters were asked about each candidate individually not in comparison.)

Among Clinton supporters, 45 percent said they would support Obama if he won the nomination, while 38 percent would defect to Sen. John McCain, the presumed Republican nominee..

Obama's supporters were more willing to stay with the Democratic Party. 70 percent said they would vote for Clinton if she were the nominee, while 12 percent would switch to McCain.

8:15 p.m. - A startling number: Mecklenburg County has released its early voting numbers, which showed Obama beating Clinton 73-27 among the county's 45,581 early voters.

8:10 p.m. - At McCrory HQ, taking nothing for granted: The Observer's David Ingram reports from the SouthPark Marriott, where Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and supporters are gathering to view election returns.

David reports: The mood so far: upbeat, but no one's taking anything for granted.

McCrory and his campaign aren't making predictions in the Republican primary for governor, telling people that the results will depend on which campaign turned out its supporters. McCrory has said that the high-profile Democratic presidential race probably siphoned off some of his potential supporters.

About 50 people are eating fruit, cheese and other hors d'oeuvres. The sound system -- which has been going on and off -- has been playing the Beatles' "Come Together" and other, positive music.

There could be a June runoff if no candidate reaches 40 percent.

8 p.m. - Why no Indiana call?: CNN map guru John King says the possible Obama counties, including the one that is home to Indianapolis, are slower with results. MSNBC hints, however, that a call for Clinton may be coming soon.

7:55 p.m. - If a result is announced in the woods...: McClatchy's Margaret Telev, with the Obama campaign in Raleigh, reports on the big moment:

At North Carolina State University's Reynolds Coliseum, where Barack Obama will speak later tonight, the big screen TVs are on and NBC just projected Obama as the winner of the North Carolina primary. Usually when this happens on primary nights, the Obama crowds go wild. But it’s only 7:30 p.m. – they haven’t even started letting the cheering section in yet. It’s just several dozen journalists and a scattering of Obama campaign volunteers and organizers. So instead of the usual waves of sustained roaring and cheering, there was a little burst of "Woo-hoo" and clapping over on the right-hand side of the still mostly-empty room.

7:40 p.m. - Significant numbers: CNN says the exit polls showed a 33 percent black turnout (but no indication if those exit polls included the 40 percent of early voters who were black). The white vote went 59 percent for Clinton, according to exits. That adds up to double-digit win territory for Obama.

7:30 p.m. - N.C. polls close: CNN, Fox, MSNBC, Associated Press call it for Obama. That means a big victory is coming.

7:25 p.m. - The state races to watch: N.C.’s polls are closing in five minutes. What do the state races look like?

The closest might be the Republican race for governor. Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory has a narrow lead over Johnston County state Sen. Fred Smith in the most recent Public Policy Poll, released this week. The Observer's David Ingram will be reporting from McCrory election headquarters tonight.

Beverly Perdue is expected to cruise to victory over Richard Moore tonight in the Democratic race.

A nod to state Sen. Kay Hagan, who leads by a mile in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, yet was still spotted today working for votes at the Winding Springs Elementary precinct in Charlotte's University area.

Another race to watch – the N.C. House District 99 seat, in which Nick Mackey is trying to unseat Huntersville’s Drew Saunders, who has held the seat since 1996.

Mackey, who briefly won a intra-party race for Mecklenburg County sheriff, has been working hard – actually placing calls (not recorded) to voters, we hear. Is it enough to overcome his substantial baggage? We’ll keep an eye on it.

7: 15 p.m. - A Regular Guy: The Raleigh News & Observer reports that Barack Obama made an appearance at a downtown Raleigh bar, ordered a Pabst Blue Ribbon, and hoisted it in the air.









7 p.m. - Indiana's polls close: CNN, Fox and MSNBC say it's too early to call the state.

More exit poll data:

About half the voters in each state said that the Rev. Jeremiah Wright was an important factor in their vote.

The big issue - surprise - was the ecomony. But in Indiana, more voters who said the economy was Issue No. 1 went with Clinton. In North Carolina, those same voters went with Obama.

6:45 p.m. - Counting down: Greetings from the Observer's live blog of the N.C. Primary. The N.C. polls are closing in 45 minutes – with Indiana’s finishing up in 15. Expect results to trickle in soon after. We'll keep you updated with news and reports from the presidential primaries and state races until the winners step back from the victory microphones.


The story of the day is voter turnout – not especially heavy thus far in Mecklenburg County, according to Observer reporter Clay Barbour, who is writing on the topic for tomorrow. But Gary Bartlett, director of the N.C. board of elections, still predicts a record primary vote for the state.


The most relevant exit poll numbers thus far show African-American turnout at 31-33 percent in North Carolina. That’s not as high as Barack Obama would like, but if those numbers are accurate, most voting models say it will be enough for an N.C. victory.

What will we see when the night is done? In the Democratic presidential primaries, there are two easy answers:

1) If Hillary Clinton wins both Indiana and North Carolina, the party will be in disarray, with the delegate math unchanged but the psychology of the race in great dispute. It won’t exactly be starting over, as the Clinton campaign will argue, but she will be given a very good listen as she makes her case on electability.

2) If Obama wins both Indiana and North Carolina, it’s over.

And if we get a split – Clinton winning Indiana and Obama winning N.C. – as most expect?

Conventional wisdom says that the media will yawn, and the race will move on.

Perhaps not.

When tonight’s primaries are done, there will be 217 pledged delegates left. An N.C./Indiana split will mean Clinton is definitely done in pledged delegates (as opposed to pretty much done.) But more importantly for Obama, a victory in N.C. might show the 260 or so uncommitted superdelegates that he is resilient enough to overcome the worst month of his campaign. Doubts may be sufficiently answered. The math will be stark. Superdelegates could very well follow.

Finally, it’s been quiet on the polling shenanigans front, an attorney with N.C.’s election protection program just told me. Good.

All we have are tea leaves, so why not read 'em?

If you’re a Hillary Clinton supporter, you should feel good about:

*Clinton chairman Terry McAuliffe declaring that she will win Indiana. "God love Indiana!" he said this morning on MSNBC. Campaign honchos don’t do that without confidence.

*Barack Obama telling voters this morning in Greenwood, Ind.: "And, uh, I think I think it’s gonna be close. I think it’s gonna be close. I don’t think anybody really knows exactly what’s gonna happen." Historically, this is code for "Our internals say we’re not going to win."

*Few reports lately of heavy turnout in Mecklenburg County. Calm, yes. Long lines, no. Mecklenburg supplies Obama with his best demographics – young voters, affluent voters, black voters, highly educated voters.

If you’re a Barack Obama supporter, you should feel good about:

*No Clinton campaign predictions of a North Carolina victory.

*A Matt Drudge report of a Clinton aide saying she will lose by 15 in N.C. (Be careful with this one. First, it’s Drudge – not always reliable. Second, this could be an expectations-setting canard.)

*Huge turnout in metro Indianapolis – likely to go Obama – as well as a disproportionate amount of absentee ballots coming from three northern Indiana counties that should lean toward Obama, according to the Associated Press.

What to look for in N.C.

Welcome to Primary Day. Be good. Vote.

We'll be joining you in this space just before the polls close at 7:30 p.m., and we'll take you through all the news and races - state and national - on election night.

The biggest race, of course, is the one for the Democratic nomination. What should you look for as the N.C. exit polls - and the results - come in tonight? Here are the numbers that matter:

The White Vote for Clinton, 65 percent: The Clinton campaign has focused its campaigning largely on the white, blue-collar vote in North Carolina. Hillary Clinton has spent most of her time away from the big cities here, and husband Bill has toured dozens of rural N.C. towns and smaller cities. If the exit polls show Hillary Clinton winning more than 65 percent of the white vote, that'll mean those small-town voters have turned out for her. Without that number, she likely won't win.

The African-American turnout, 35 percent: The big question among pollsters this week is how many blacks will vote in North Carolina. In 2004, 32 percent of N.C. voters were black. In early voting this year, the total was just more than 40 percent. The latter total is likely due to Obama's significant get-out-the-vote efforts, but if Obama can approach that number today - say, a 35 percent black turnout - his win will be more than five points. If the turnout is less than 30 percent, Clinton will be celebrating.

The Meck Vote, 200K: You'll likely be reading about busy precincts and record turnout in Mecklenburg County today. The more voters that show, the better the news for Obama. Mecklenburg offers his best demographics - young voters, black voters, better-educated voters. If the Democratic primary vote approaches 200,000 here, that's good news for him.

And finally, one more thing to think about, for us: We want to know what you see at the polls today - not only what might be wrong, but what is right. You're likely tired of hearing about this being an historic election year. Well, it is. Voters are turning out in record numbers, and now it's our turn. Enjoy it. Look around. Tell us what you see. Tell us your story.

Your Morning Buzz:

On the last day of campaigning, candidates and their spouses criss-crossed the state to make final pleas to voters - writes a team of McClatchy reporters.

The Times Adam Nagourney offers a thorough breakdown on what victories - or losses - in N.C. and Indiana would mean for the candidates.

Both candidates did their best to be just regular (Ivy League/wealthy/powerful) folk, writes Eli Saslow of the Washington Post.

The Washington Post's Dan Blaz has eight questions - big picture and small - to consider while you wait for the results.

Indiana is excited about mattering, too.

The candidates retooled their message on trade for N.C. and Indiana, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Two thoughtful writers, the Chicago Tribune's Mary Schmich and Eric Zorn, debate when to end the race.

And finally, in case you were wondering, John and Elizabeth Edwards decided not to endorse.

Closing the deal? The final ads arrive

More gas tax debate ads on the air - but also the "closer" ads from each candidate. In each, the candidates step back for a bigger-picture plea to voters. Obama's is a big buy - a two-minute spot running in N.C. and Indiana. Clinton's is one of two positive closer ads she's putting up in Indiana.

Our ad professor - Wake Forest University's Allan Louden - takes a look at each for you. His grades below.

"Spoke Out" – Clinton Indiana Closer



Says Louden:

Hillary’s closing Indiana spot argues that her concern about economic woes is not that of a "Johnny-come-lately." She reminds voters that she has lectured the Bush administration on energy and gas prices for years. The understated message counters those who see her Gas Tax summer holiday as politically expedient.

The spot’s visuals depict a reality just short of the Great Depression. For voters whose top concern is the economy the ad reinforces their anxiety, and loyalty. Its style is boilerplate, closed factories and newspaper documentation.

The spots effectiveness likely hinges on fidelity: Is the characterization in keeping with Indiana voter’s lived lives? Indicators are that Indiana is doing well economically compared to states in the region. And voters may ask if Clinton’s decades of fighting for the economy have produced results.

Clinton has had several earlier spots that were superior in making her case.

The ad closes with Clinton campaign’s foundation argument - EXPERIENCE - "All it takes is a president who knows how."

Grade: C+

"Minute" – Obama Closer in NC



Louden says:

Obama is running essentially the same "closer-spot" in North Carolina and Indiana. The only distinction is opening scenes, where Obama claims to hold the same values as North Carolina (pastures and picnics) and Indiana (farmlands and factories). The spot is carefully edited for the N.C. market, removing Hoosier t-shirts and an identifier from one Indiana arena.

The spot is very long by TV standards - two minutes - packaging a microcosm of a message that has not changed since the campaign’s inception. Obama: "We can go about doing the same old things with the same old folks in the same old ways and somehow hope we’re going to get a different result. Or we can go ahead and try something entirely different."

The spot tips its hat to the immediate campaign realities - jobs, gas taxes, foreclosures - but the message remains global. (Voiceover: ". . . He trusts us with the truth.")

A strong sub-theme is captured from an Obama speech: "Politics didn’t lead me to working people. Working people led me to politics," inviting identification with a demographic that has remained distanced. And the line, like many of his, is double-edged, defining him while pointedly indicting his unnamed opponent.

The crowd visuals portrayed in the ads are of particular interest. In scene after scene, "real people" are shown positively responding to his words, the vignettes carefully edited as enactment of a post-racial era. Each cut offers a mix of voters, balanced by age, gender, and race - even as in the scenes white voters command the foreground.

While this post-racial portrayal is subject to criticism - more hope than reality - the snapshots appear to be a faithful portrayal of the diversity found at his rallies.

The spot is less about conversion than about reminding voters why they liked Obama in the first place. "Minute" is a clear example of what it means to "stay on message."


Grade: A-

For more of Louden's political and debate analysis, see debatescoop.com

The Day in Superdelegates

Barack Obama has picked up three today.

Maryland party chairman Michael Cryor and vice chairman Lauren Dugas Glover scheduled a news conference this afternoon to endorse Obama - a reflection, perhaps, of the pressure the campaigns are placing on supers to publicly pick a candidate. The Maryland pair previously had said they would stay neutral during the primary season because of their positions.

Earlier today, DNC at-large member Kalyn Free of Oklahoma endorsed Obama.

(Update, 6:20 p.m.: Clinton receives half a superdelegate - Democrats Abroad's Theresa Morelli announced her endorsemenet today. Morelli, who counts as a half-delegate, lives in Milan, Italy.)

Your superdelegate totals: Clinton 269, Obama 256.5.

Total delegates: Obama 1744.5, Clinton 1604. Needed to win: 2,025.

Want to predict the N.C. primary?

Want to figure out the results of the N.C. primary before the networks call a winner?

The folks at FiveThirtyEight.com – who are much more mathematically capable than yours truly – have provided this handy calculator that can help you amaze your spouse, friends and pets tomorrow night.

Simply watch the exit polls come in – the trickle generally begins after 5 p.m. – and plug in how whites voted, how blacks voted, and the percentage of black voters among all voters. You’ll also find exit polls often on the networks’ web sites.

We’ve tried it with some recent polls, and the calculator’s totals are within two percent of the poll results.

Want to play around with the possibilities? Here are some numbers to get you started:

The three N.C. polls released today had Hillary Clinton winning the white vote 62-27, 60-34, and 55-34. Obama wins the black vote, respectively, in these polls 88-9, 84-11, and 77-10 . The percentage of blacks among total voters was 36 and 35 for the first two polls, with the third poll’s total unavailable.

In early N.C. voting, blacks made up 40.6 percent of total voters, but some of that might be due to Obama’s significant get-out-the-vote efforts.

For, ahem, entertainment purposes only.

A double-digit Obama lead?

Barack Obama may be regaining his footing in North Carolina.

Public Policy Polling of Raleigh has Obama leading Hillary Clinton 53-43 in a survey taken this weekend and released moments ago.

PPP also has Beverly Perdue comfortably winning the Democratic race for N.C. governor, 51-33 over Richard Moore. "Bev Perdue will be the Democratic Candidate for governor," said PPP pollster Tom Jensen today.

In the presidential race, Obama’s 10-point margin over Clinton shows a slight narrowing from a week ago, when PPP had him up 12. But subsequent N.C. polls last week had Obama with leads as little as five.

Jensen says he estimated that 35% of N.C. primary voters will be black. With Obama winning those voters 84-11, Clinton’s 60-34 advantage with white voters is not enough to come close to a win. The margin of error in the poll is +/- 3.3 percent.

"At the end of the day North Carolina’s demographics make it nearly impossible for Hillary Clinton to do much better than a ten point loss here," Jensen said in a blog post today.

Other N.C. presidential polls today show a similar stabilization for Obama, yet still some progress for Clinton:

Zogby has Obama leading 48-40 in its daily tracking poll – one point less than his 48-39 lead yesterday. Margin of error, +/- 4 percent.

American Research Group, just released, has Obama leading 50-42, a tightening of a 11-point lead three days ago. (MOE +/- 4 percent.)

In Indiana, most polls are showing Clinton with comfortable leads:

Suffolk has Clinton leading 49-43 this morning (MOE +/- 4 percent), and ARG has the lead at 53-45 (MOE +/- 4 percent).

Zogby has Obama ahead in Indiana, 44-42, but with undecideds leaning toward Clinton. MOE +/- 4 percent.

(Update, 1:20 p.m.: Reader Nathan rightly asks for the margins of error on the polls cited. I've added them all, with links.)

Also, Survey USA has Clinton by double-digits in Indiana, 54-42. MOE: +/- 3.8 percent.)

Morning Buzz: What's a win in N.C.?

What's a win in tomorrow's N.C. primary?

What margin of victory will rev the superlatives engine on the election night news shows - or more importantly, raise the eyebrows of uncommitted superdelegates?

What do you think?

If Hillary Clinton could write tomorrow's media script, it would say that Barack Obama needs to win N.C. by close to double digits, just as she did in Pennsylvania, to declare victory. We are, after all, a state in which Obama has built-in demographic advantages (re: lots of African-American voters), so a close finish by Clinton would show that even his strengths have weakened.

If Barack Obama had his say, we would conclude that a win is a win - that any victory will show supers he was able to overcome the negatives of his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright.

The reality is that the national perception of N.C.'s results will depend greatly on ... Indiana. If Clinton wins Indiana handily, Obama will need a similar victory here to show that he has stunted her momentum. If Clinton eeks out an Indiana win, a five-point Obama win in N.C. will be enough for him to convincingly point to his pledged delegate lead and say "The race hasn't changed."

Of course - Clinton wins in both N.C. and Indiana might mean it's a new race, no matter the pledged delegates. If Obama wins both, it's time to look to November.

Tell us what you think. Make a comment here.

Your morning buzz:

The Observer's Tim Funk and April Bethea report that analysts expect the largest N.C. primary turnout ever.

The candidates offer their economic plans - and differences - the Washington Post reports.

Politico's Ben Smith sets his expectations - Obama winning in N.C. and Clinton by slightly less in Indiana.

N.C. political experts tell Politico that a John Edwards endorsement wouldn't carry much oomph.

A New York Times poll shows Obama with a comfortable 12-point lead nationally - but in danger of losing those iffy Republicans he'd hoped to snag in November.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Obama is eschewing big arenas for some intimate face time with voters.

Hillary Clinton proudly casts herself as a battler, but that image carries reminders of what voters like least about her, Mark Leibovich and Kate Zernike of the Times write.

Both candidates brought Indiana dems to their feet at the Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner, the Indy Star reports.

The News & Observer's Mandy Locke writes that state and national campaigns are using youth to connect with youth.

Two days left - candidates dig in

The Sunday before the May 6 N.C. and Indiana primaries brought some poll movement, one superdelegate, more bickering over the gas tax holiday and, of course, another gas tax holiday ad. (Our ad professor, Wake Forest University's Allan Louden, gives it his usual thoughtful look below.)

The superdelegate: Guam's Jaime Paulino endorses Barack Obama.

The polls: Barack Obama had his best day since Pennsylvania as he found forward momentum in two national tracking surveys, moving ahead of Hillary Clinton 49-45 in Gallup's daily poll and pulling even at 45 in Rasmussen's, where he trailed by three yesterday. Obama also maintained a nine-point lead (48-39) in a Zogby N.C. poll and nudged to a two-point lead (43-41) in a Zogby Indiana poll. The N.C. numbers are consistent with other polls, but most have Clinton ahead in Indiana.

The gas tax: The Clinton and Obama camps lobbed barbs in conference calls Sunday, with each camp restating their positions on Clinton's gas tax holiday. Clinton says she's taking on the oil companies by making them pay for a summer suspension of the 18.5 cent-per-gallon gas tax. Obama says it's a vote-getting gimmick that economists say won't help consumers.

Obama released the latest ad, his third on the issue. Is that in indication that he's fretting about Clinton winning the issue, or are the favorable polls today showing that Obama is having success in drawing the line between a perceived Clinton weakness with voters - trust - and this gas tax proposal?

Obama's ad - "Boost":

Louden says:

Arguments have a way of taking on a life of their own not always predicted by the combatants. The Obama campaign has taken the Gas Tax ad debate to “Round V” with a new hard hitting spot – “Boost.” An announcer intones: “Experts say it’ll just 'boost oil industry profits'... They’ll 'simply raise prices and pocket … the difference.' Clinton aides admit it won’t do much for you – but would help her politically.”

In the unfolding spot debate, what seemed initially to be defense by Obama has transformed with Obama now on the offense. Every tax recess mention becomes a reminder of the question, “Who will do anything to be elected?"

We won’t know until Tuesday if the Gas Tax issue will be defining, but it has become the flash point, the container for 18 months of campaign history. Synecdoche, a literary device where a part of something is used to refer to the whole thing, explains how Obama’s ads are framing the debate.

“So here’s the choice…Clinton gimmicks . . . or . . . a real energy plan.” That choice in point of fact asks “are you stuck in the past or ready to embrace the future.” The “Gas Tax debate” is about what counts as Real Change.

Spots do not stand alone, but work in close conjunction with campaign rhetoric and media cycles. It has been a spell since Obama has been on the offense. Will voters embrace “Obama Realism” or value taking action, any action, as counting for more? There is still time for Round V—stay tuned.

Grade: A-

For more of Louden's political and debate analysis, check out debatescoop.com.

In Gastonia and Mooresville, Clinton goes country

Observer reporter Jim Morrill was in Gastonia and Mooresville today, where Hillary Clinton made two more stops on her swing through N.C.

Jim reports:

Hillary Clinton channeled her inner Richard Petty today at stops in Gastonia and Mooresville.

Standing alongside Gov. Mike Easley on the back of a pick-up, she spoke to around 700 people in downtown Gastonia. A friend in her traveling press told me he was convinced she even sounded a little more country as she rattled off her usual stump speech, with a heavy emphasis on her proposed gas tax holiday.

She enthusiastically defended the tax suspension, even after taking note of a placard in the audience that read, "A gas tax holiday is blatant pandering."

She did it all again a couple hours later in Mooresville, where she spoke to a smaller crowd at the N.C. Racing Hall of Fame. There she and Easley were joined by racing legend Junior Johnson, who also has been escorting her husband, the former president, around North Carolina. The two never passed a barbecue restaurant they didn't stop at, she said.

"Barbecue is to my husband what gasoline was to Junior Johnson," Clinton said. "It's the fuel that keeps you going."

 

The Day in Superdelegates

Saturday's superdelegate commitments: Obama 3, Clinton 1.

One was an actual endorsement of an uncommitted super, New Mexico state party chair Brian Colon, who gave his nod to Obama today.

Three came from add-on delegates, which are chosen by the state parties after primaries and caucuses:

In South Carolina, former state superintendent Inez Tenenbaum, an Obama supporter, won an add-on slot. 

In Maryland, a state party committee selected former Gov. Parris Glendening, a Clinton supporter, and former Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, an Obama supporter.

Your superdelegate total: Clinton 269, Obama 252. 

Overall delegate total (2,025 needed to win): Obama 1740.5, Clinton 1603.5.

(For an explanation of superdelegates, look on over to the rail on the right.) 

Savings or gimmick? The gas tax debate intensifies

The debate over the gas tax holiday continues to simmer today, both visually and verbally. It's one of few issues neither candidate wants to flee. 

In Indiana, Hillary Clinton has released a response ad to answer Obama's response ad on the issue. (see below - along with a grade from our ad professor, Wake Forest University's Allan Louden.) 

In North Carolina, at a campaign stop in Wake Forest, Clinton spoke today about the holiday providing "immediate relief" to consumers.  

Clinton proposes that the oil companies pay the money that would be lost from the tax holiday. Barack Obama says it's a gimmick that doesn't work - that the oil companies will pass that cost back to the consumers, as has happened in the past on similar measures.  

Others are joining in the fight: Colorado Rep. Mark Udall, who's running for a Senate seat, bristled at Clinton's insistence that members of Congress either stand with her or with the oil companies. 

Said Udall, an uncommitted superdelegate: "I stand with the families of Colorado, who aren't looking for bumper sticker fixes that don't fix anything.... We can't afford more Washington-style pandering while families keep getting squeezed."

Later today, Obama supporter and Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill will hold a conference call with reporters to note that N.C. Governor and Clinton endorser Mike Easley has spoken out against cutting gas taxes and the gas tax holiday, panning it as recently as two weeks ago.

(Update, 3:50 p.m. from the Observer's Mark Johnson, who provides a quote from McCaskill: "Here you have Gov. Easley speaking the truth," she said, "that cutting the gas tax doesn't mean you're going to lower the price of gas.") 

Clinton is pretty much alone on this one (other than John McCain, who also has proposed a holiday). Congressional members and economists think it's a poor idea, albeit one that might nab some voters fretted about gas prices. 

The ad (and Louden's grade): 

Louden says:

The fourth ad in the the TV Spots Gas Wars extends the debate in conventional ways. It is an argument, complete with claims and evidence, directly responding to Obama's latest ad, "Pennies," and the media criticism of her proposal. It advanced the policy debate by claiming her policy is not a gimmick and is part of a larger "permanent solution" to hold the oil companies feet to the fire.

The motif: Man-in-the-street testimony with a swipe at Obama, all embedded in a simple, "problem solution" format.

The overall message echoes in her larger narrative: action, action, and real action; tough, tough, and really tough. In 30 seconds the ad accomplishes a myriad of goals - and while "negative," it presents this in an "issue frame," hence fair.

This spot does its job in the unfolding airwave debate.

Grade B+ 

See Louden's analysis on politics/debates at debatescoop.com

Blowout poll no longer a blowout

The Zogby tracking poll, which showed Obama leading by 16 points in N.C. yesterday, has joined the rest of the N.C. polls that show a single-digit lead. Zogby's latest: Obama 46 percent, Clinton 37, undecided 8 percent, other 8 percent.

In Indiana, Zogby has Obama nudging up one point from yesterday - now leading Clinton 43-42. 

Obama in Charlotte: Gas Tax holiday will lead to "sticker shock"

Barack Obama continued his offensive against Hillary Clinton's gas tax holiday proposal tonight in Charlotte. Obama spoke at Cricket Arena, and political writer Jim Morrill was there for a story he's writing in tomorrow's Observer. 

Jim answered a couple Primary Source questions first. 

Primary Source: The issue of the day, which both candidates have welcomed, is the Gas Tax Holiday. What did Obama have to say to the Charlotte folks about it?

Morrill: That's our story for tomorrow. He criticized Clinton's plan again, which McCain also supports. He also put out a new TV ad today in response to Clinton's, which criticizes him for opposing the gas tax holiday. I'd expect another one from her this weekend in response to his. (In fact, she just did, releasing one in Indiana this evening.)

He cites the example of a gas tax holiday he helped pass in Illinois. He says the oil companies quickly raised their own prices when the state tax went off. And he predicted "sticker shock" for consumers at the end of the summer when the tax would be reapplied to presumably already higher-priced gas.

Primary Source: Do you sense worry or urgency in his words or the crowd, given the tightening poll numbers this week?

Morrill: No. It was really enthusiastic. The crowd in Cricket Arena created a real din, chanting Obama's name and the "Yes, we can" mantra at the top of their lungs. The few people I asked about it didn't seem too worried.

Hillary in Greensboro (and a bonus "Grading the Ad")

Hillary Clinton begins a weekend push in N.C. today, with rallies today and tomorrow, including stops Saturday in Gastonia (1:30 p.m., Rotary Centennial Pavilion) and Mooresville (3:30 p.m., North Carolina Auto Racing Hall of Fame).

Observer reporter David Ingram was with the campaign in Greensboro this afternoon. We caught up him a few moments ago. (Also, our ad professor, Wake Forest University's Allan Louden, grades Clinton's Mike Easley ad running in N.C. this week. See it below. )

Primary Source: Barack Obama has gone hard after Clinton's gas tax proposal today. Is she
answering that?

Ingram: She is. She told several hundred people at Guilford College today that it's not enough to look for alternative energy sources for the long term. "Yes, we do have to have a long-term energy strategy, and I've laid out a very comprehensive one. But we also need to give folks some relief right now," she said.

An interesting side note: Gov. Mike Easley is traveling with Hillary Clinton today. In 2005 and 2006, when N.C. Republicans were pushing for a freeze or cut in the state's gas tax, the Easley administration fiercely opposed the move because it would have resulted in lower tax revenue. His aides made many of the similar arguments Barack Obama is making this week. Easley did not mention the topic Friday.

Primary Source: In Kinston today, Clinton called N.C. a "game changer." What is she saying in Greensboro?

Ingram: Her comments about the state were fairly similar to what she's said about other states -- talking about the economic transition, trade and healthcare. At least on this stop, she left out any mention of the expectations game.

Toward the end of a 45-minute speech, she said, "North Carolina hasn't been in this spotlight of helping to pick a presidential nominee for a long, long time," and she added, "I hope that you will give me a chance to work for you."

But she didn't go so far as to make any predictions.

Primary Source: What were the money lines today?

Ingram: Clinton's biggest applause lines came when she spoke about ending President Bush's education initiative, known as No Child Left Behind, and when she called for an end to the war in Iraq.

She said she'd work with military leaders to come up with a plan to begin withdrawing troops within 60 days.

Clinton drew a laugh when she mentioned that Guilford College's mascot is the same as the one at Chelsea Clinton's high school.

"When she went to Sidwell Friends School, and I learned that the teams were the Fighting Quakers, I thought, 'Now, that's an inherent contradiction isn't it?' "


Clinton – Mike Easley ad





Louden says:


Governor Mike Easley has cut a new spot on behalf of Hillary Clinton. The spot’s construction is pedestrian: a "talking head" providing a long laundry-list of issues and hyperbole. But the purpose of this endorsement ad may be fulfilled even as voters wince. I will return to the way Clinton’s endorsement ads work in a moment - but first, the Easley tenor. . .


Easley speaks as if Hillary is "superwoman" able to magically smite all political evil by character alone. "She is so resilient, so determined," he argues, that, by inference, single-handedly


*"She's going to turn the economy around"


*"She's going bring new jobs"


*"She's going to get some tax cuts. . ."


*"She's going to make health care available to everybody"


*"And she's going to do everything she can to help every child reach their full potential."


Wow, that is breathtaking; and also stretches credulity to the breaking point. Voters are not stupid; they know issues are complicated and it takes "a working majority" to get things done. Maybe "Super-Clinton" is beyond the "laws of politics."


So what work is this ad intended to accomplish? It is like a number of Clinton ads aired in earlier primary states. Find the biggest name willing, who personifies the establishment, and thereby signal more mainstream (read conservative) voters to not take a risk.


Similar ads were used with Governor Randall in Pennsylvania, Bob Kerry in Nebraska, John Breaux in Louisiana, Henry Cisneros in Texas, John Glenn and Ted Strickland in Ohio, among others. Pointedly, many of those offering "credibility-coattails" are long out of office, likely speaking to older voters, a mainstay of Hillary’s base. These "old school" endorsement ads offer a sense of place and time to a "traditionalist" slice of the electorate.


Grade: C+

See Louden's election/debate blog at http://www.debatescoop.com/

The Day in Endorsements

A slow endorsement day for the candidates - holding back until Monday or tapped out after a flurry earlier this week?

Clinton picks up the endorsement of Indiana's largest newspaper, the Indianapolis Star, which says: "Clinton offers a clear-eyed view of the way things are. She offers nuanced positions on how to address the war in Iraq, trade with China and economic expansion. Her depth of knowledge is remarkable."

Obama picks up a superdelegate in former Democratic National Committee Chairman Paul Kirk of Massachusetts. Obama, said Kirk in a statement: "has and will continue to expand the electorate beyond the traditional Democratic Party base and bring young and new and independent voters to the Democratic banner in November."

Kirk previously has supported Obama, according to Bloomberg News, but he hadn't formally pledged his superdelegate vote at the convention.

(Update 7:05 p.m.: Clinton picks up a superdelegate, too, with the endorsement of Texas DNC member Jaime A. Gonzalez, Jr.)

FYI: Editorial page editor Ed Williams tells me the Observer will be endorsing a presidential candidate Sunday.

The next big debate?

Obama has chosen what he'd like the next big conversation to be. Will the media follow?

Emboldened by economists, editorialists and fellow lawmakers, he's going after Hillary Clinton (and while he's at it, John McCain) for supporting a gas tax holiday this summer. It was Topic No. 1 of a Obama's Indianapolis press conference this morning, and the campaign followed up with the release of a new gas tax ad (see below).

The ad, titled "Pennies," is more pointed than an earlier spot this week, and it hits on a previously successful Obama theme - that Clinton will say anything for a vote. Is it enough to counter the simplicity of some extra cash - even if it's only $20 - that Clinton is proposing?

Clinton, in an N.C. speech today released by her campaign, said: “We ought to say: Wait a minute, we’d rather have the oil companies pay the gas tax than the drivers of North Carolina, especially the truck drivers, or the farmers, or other people who have to commute long distances.”

(Update 3:50 p.m.: Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson says she will introduce Gas Tax Holiday legislation. Nancy Pelosi tells reporters that the "holiday" would do little for consumers.)

Tell us what you think.

Here's the ad, followed by an analysis and grade from our political ad expert, Wake Forest University professor Allen Louden. (He also does debates - http://www.debatescoop.com/.)



Louden says:

Political advertising is often dismissed as vacuous, yet spots often are where serious policy discussions occur. The depth may not satisfy, but when understood in the context of news and stump speeches, spots hint at much more than literal copy. In this election cycle, unlike any in recent memory, voters are amazingly informed.

Obama has released another installment in the ongoing debate about a summer gas tax holiday. In installment one, Obama argued the savings per person was minimal and: "We cannot deliver on a better energy policy unless we change how business is done in Washington."

In case you missed the point with the first ad, his new spot (currently running in Indiana and likely soon in a venue near you) makes two obvious moves: (1) contrasts motive—who will do anything to be elected? and (2) tells voters how to respond to the Clinton ad—it’s a stunt.

Obama’s spot opens with these words: "Another negative ad from Hillary Clinton. But here’s what she’s NOT saying. USA Today calls her three-month gas tax holiday "political pandering. It’s an election year-gimmick, saving Hoosiers just pennies a day."

Obama is counting on voter’s familiarity with discussions taking place in newspapers like the Wall Street Journal and New York Times, as well as the Congressional Democratic leadership, nearly all of whom have rejected the gas tax holiday as "opportunistic," "dead-on-arrival," and "just bad policy."

The ad may not succeed in turning around Clinton’s message that she "takes action," but it has the power to neutralize. Minimally, voters become less sure the gas tax flap is a tie breaker, at best it helps confirm suspicions about Clinton’s sincerity.

The risks are apparent as well, as Obama cedes ground that he represents taking the "high road." His ad is largely positive, but media conflict narratives require their reporting both sides have gone negative.

Grade: B+

Suddenly, an Obama blowout?

What do we make of a new Zogby poll showing Obama ahead by 16 percent - 50-34 - in North Carolina?

The survey comes one day after an InsiderAdvantage poll showed Clinton leading 44-42. That's an 18-point difference.

Several possibilities:

1) We could simply be discovering the boundaries of the N.C. race - as we've done with polls in several Democratic primaries and caucuses. There have only been two states - S.C. and N.H. - in which the final results skewed dramatically from the boundaries set by several polls. Best bet is to find the consensus - and that's mid to high single-digits.

2) A 2008 pattern: One candidate leads by double digits before the campaigns come to town. Those leads subsequently dwindle to single-digits, or perhaps no lead at all, before swelling again to a comfortable point. We've seen this in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania and others - with Clinton the early leader in each state. Call it the discovery process - a natural part of a campaign cycle.

3) Jeremiah Wright, redux. Obama has lost voters because of his former pastor - a net of 11 percent told Zogby they were less likely to support him (no indication, however, if those were Obama supporters beforehand). Has the issue again run its course for truly undecided voters?

4) Zogby could be wrong. He has Clinton leading by 10 points among white and Obama leading among all men, 57-30. Those are better numbers for Obama than recent performances.

More poll news:

American Research Group, just released, has Obama leading 52-41, a one-point improvement for Obama from four days ago and identical to two weeks ago.

Research 2000, just released, has Obama up in N.C. 51-44.

TeleResearch has Clinton up in Indiana, 48-38. ARG essentially agrees, 53-44. Zogby has Indiana tied at 42.

Morning Buzz: Unity Ticket, yes or no?

Nancy Pelosi says no.

Barack Obama doesn't want to talk about it.

Hillary Clinton once wanted to talk about it, but not so much now.

Obama-Clinton '08. Clinton-Obama '08. Seems like a non-starter.

And yet, it's still out there. Bloggers roll it around. Voters nod at it - six in 10 said yes in one recent poll.

What do you think?

The benefits are obvious, perhaps more than ever. Not so much electorally, but as a defensive measure, a consolation prize for the supporters of the second-place Dem. Don't underestimate the fear among party leaders that resentful voters might stay home in November.

The Unity opposition? They say there's no turning back now - that the campaigns have been too ugly to reconcile, no matter how pragmatic it would be.

Besides, wasn't this the year that political necessity wasn't going to be necessary? That's what the Obama campaign is built upon.

Our question of the day: Is the Unity ticket a good idea? Even if you think not, would you vote for it?

Let us know here.

Your morning buzz:

McClatchy's David Lightman and William Douglas report that some blacks will stay home in November should Obama lose the nomination. (We told you about David's story in yesterday's Buzz.)

Yes, it's still a race, say the N.Y. Times Adam Nagourney and Carl Hulse, but Obama is still rolling along.

Democratic candidates. Fox News. Friends? Brian Stelter explores. (Bloggers don't like it, Politico's Mike Allen reports.)

Obama's chief strategist loves baseball - the White Sox and Cubs in particular - and he's also (surprise) a fan of his boss. Robert Kaiser of the Washington Post takes an intriguing look at David Axelrod.

The Post's E.J. Dionne asks: Do white, right-wing preachers get softer treatment from the media than black, left-wing preachers?

Indy Star columnist Mike Tully says Clinton supporter Evan Bayh has had a tough week in his home state. (But, he notes, Clinton has the momentum there.)

In Indiana, the candidates are courting everyone, including Republicans, writes the Wall Street Journal.

And finally, the News & Observer's Grey Blackwell has a different choice for president. Watch his video.

Obama on Letterman

Obama will appear on the Late Show with David Letterman tonight (11:35 p.m., WBTV, Ch. 3), reading a Top 10 list of "Surprising Facts About Barack Obama."

They are:

10. My first act as President will be to stop the fighting between Lauren and Heidi on “The Hills.”

9. In the Illinois primary, I accidentally voted for Kucinich.

8. When I tell my kids to clean their room, I finish with, “I’m Barack Obama and I approved this message.”

7. Throughout high school, I was consistently voted “Barackiest.”

6. Earlier today I bowled a 39.

5. I have canceled all my appearances the day the “Sex and the City” movie opens.

4. It’s the birthplace of Fred Astaire. (Sorry, that’s a surprising fact about Omaha)

3. We are tirelessly working to get the endorsement of Kentucky Derby favorite Colonel John.

2. This has nothing to do with the Top Ten, but what the heck is up with Paula Abdul?

1. I have not slept since October.

Clinton's gas tax proposal - who likes it?

The gas tax holiday – championed by Hillary Clinton – was roundly hammered today.

It’s pandering, said critics of the proposed suspension of the 18.4 cent-a-gallon excise tax this summer.

"It's the dumbest thing I've heard in an awful long time," said New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

"A gambit," said today’s New York Times, noting that drivers would see only the briefest reduction in prices at the pump, not enough to make up for the "administrative nightmare" and a $9 billion addition to the deficit.

In today’s Washington Post, economists said the holiday would drive up demand, which would increase the price of gas, rendering the holiday ineffective.

Barack Obama argues essentially the same thing – saying the cost to roads and bridges isn’t worth the 20 or so bucks you’ll save in the entire summer.

And yet, Clinton holds steady.

(To be fair, the proposal also is supported by John McCain. But he’s been noticeably quieter about it lately.)

It’s an interesting exercise in campaigning. First, there’s no way Clinton backs away after supporting it so strongly. But also, she is likely betting that the insignificant $20 people would get is still 20 bucks more than that other candidate is offering. Pandering or not, it’ll pay for dinner.

Will it work? Depends on what you think of your fellow voter.

Tell us your thoughts.

Here are the Gas Tax ads from each campaign, followed by an analysis and grade from our ad professor, Wake Forest’s Allan Louden, a specialist in political advertising.

Hillary Clinton’s Trouble





Barack Obama’s Truth






Louden says:

Political ads seldom stand alone. They are understood within the milieu of media narratives and opposing campaign ads. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama’s new spots on suspending the Gas Tax this summer demonstrate the interconnection of political spots with several layers being played out in the N.C. primary fight.

Hillary’s spot—"Trouble"—is the first "comparative" spot ran in N.C., characterized by some as a negative spot. It directly cites Obama’s "NO" to freezing mortgage foreclosures and gas tax suspension. The message is pointed: "People are hurting; it’s time for a president who’s ready to take action now."

The ad has an Indiana feel, originally airing in that state. My guess the message is effective, tapping real frustrations and providing specific reasons for voters to justify their voting choice.

The Obama campaign was on the air in record time with a response ad—"Truth"— 60 seconds in length, signaling their belief that the Clinton spot is working. The ad reframes Clinton’s "Trouble" as a typical campaign gimmick, inviting voters to rise above the old and embrace the future. As with all Obama messages, it brands "a different campaign."

I expect the spot will appeal to the converted but may not move the undecided.

The ability of spots to dialogue changes their meanings. If the Obama spot is successful in framing how voters understand the Clinton spot, it has the potential to make an otherwise effective spot a loser.

Grades: Hillary’s "Trouble" B+, Obama’s Truth" B+

Grading the Ads - Maya delivers/Gas tax duel

Wake Forest professor Allan Louden, an expert on political advertising, expects our airwaves to be filled with primary ads for the next five days. N.C.'s media markets are relatively inexpensive, and the campaigns have money to spend in what is suddenly a tight race. Expect a few stingers soon, he says.

Some will work. Some will fall flat. Louden will guide us through, offering his take on ads as they appear. He'll give each a letter grade.

We'll start with two released this week, including one that Louden calls "a winner."

Hillary Clinton - Maya

Grade: A




Louden says:

Like good wine, Maya Angelou cannot be rushed. In a spot of unusual length – 60 seconds – Maya Angelou’s "Conversation" with Hillary unfolds in a slow, like molasses, cadence that is the "nation’s poet" signature manner. The soft shots, taken in Wake Forest’s Wait Chapel, moves effortlessly between cuts of Maya uncompromising testimonial to Clinton’s character and black and white photographs tying her to policy and demographic identity; made seamless by the musical score.

The ad is a winner on many levels. It seduces rather than excites, reminding voters—blacks, women, older voters, working folks—to come home to the known and comfortable. Hillary does not speak, remaining passively respectful of all that deserves praise. The ad is at once a prayer, poem, and memoir, paying homage to demographics that define Clinton’s electoral chances in NC.
Barack Obama - Return

Grade: B







Says Louden:

Obama new spot airing in NC—"Return"—seeks to elevate Obama to concerned Commander-in-Chief actively working to protect the military. It is typical of most political spots, visually framed policy initiatives advanced to address military concerns.

The ad is about a "returning military," indirectly signaling his well-known refrain that he alone opposed the Iraq War. The Iraq war is not invoked, but rather the future; the war is relegated to a historical artifact. Spots have the power to frame issues to the candidate’s liking, but can only be understood within the larger context that includes the general campaign.

"Return" is both defensive, responding to orchestrated Clinton events in N.C.'s Military corridor, Fayetteville and Jackson, but also offensive in invoking Clinton’s Iraq vote and her "politicized judgment." In politics, the one controlling the agenda usually has the upper hand. Conventional wisdom would argue that it was Clinton’s bolstering with the military that forced an Obama response. Yet Obama has captured much of the anti-war vote during the primaries.

Another part of Obama’s message is what it really means to honor the country, to be patriotic, to made command decisions. Perhaps the ad is not about military policy at all, but about "3 A.M." phone calls, flag lapel pins, and hand-over-your-heart.

The reservoir of voter knowledge of Clinton’s and Obama’s position on the war is deep, likely neutralizing the effect of any one spot. Voters may simply retreat to already held views of what it means to cross the Commander-in-Chief threshold.

Other ads reviewed today:

Dueling Gax Tax Ads

Hillary Clinton’s Trouble



Barack Obama’s Truth



Louden says:

Political ads seldom stand alone. They are understood within the milieu of media narratives and opposing campaign ads. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama’s new spots on suspending the Gas Tax this summer demonstrate the interconnection of political spots with several layers being played out in the N.C. primary fight.

Hillary’s spot—"Trouble"—is the first "comparative" spot ran in N.C., characterized by some as a negative spot. It directly cites Obama’s "NO" to freezing mortgage foreclosures and gas tax suspension. The message is pointed: "People are hurting; it’s time for a president who’s ready to take action now."

The ad has an Indiana feel, originally airing in that state. My guess the message is effective, tapping real frustrations and providing specific reasons for voters to justify their voting choice.

The Obama campaign was on the air in record time with a response ad—"Truth"— 60 seconds in length, signaling their belief that the Clinton spot is working. The ad reframes Clinton’s "Trouble" as a typical campaign gimmick, inviting voters to rise above the old and embrace the future. As with all Obama messages, it brands "a different campaign."

I expect the spot will appeal to the converted but may not move the undecided.

The ability of spots to dialogue changes their meanings. If the Obama spot is successful in framing how voters understand the Clinton spot, it has the potential to make an otherwise effective spot a loser.

Grade: Hillary’s "Trouble" B+
Obama’s Truth" B+

Big superdelegate day for Obama

The best way to blunt poor polling is to roll out some numbers that may count for more - the Superdelegates.

Today, Barack Obama continued to nibble away at Hillary Clinton's superdelegate lead. He's picked up five, while she's captured four. One of Obama's pickups, however, is former DNC leader Joe Andrew, who previously had endorsed Clinton. That means in superdelegate math, Obama is leading 5-0 today.

Obama's other pickups:

Texas DNC Member John Patrick, vice president of the Texas AFL-CIO.

Three from Illinois: Mayor Daley, House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger. According to the Chicago Sun-Times, those three will be official when the state finishes filling out its delegate slate next week.

Clinton picks up four superdelegates from New York after the state elected its add-on delegates for the convention, according to the N.Y. Daily News. The supers: AG Andrew Cuomo, state Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, former Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields and Assemblywoman Carmen Arroyo.

Clinton also picked up John Olsen, president of the Connecticut AFL-CIO, according to the Hartford Courant.

Obama-pickup Andrew is the biggest get of the day for three reasons:

1) He's not only a plus 1 for Obama, but a minus 1 for Clinton. It's all about the math.

2) He's from Indiana, and the Obama campaign will be sidling him up to the media all day today. He'll also be campaigning in the state tomorrow.

3) He speaks the language Obama needs other supers to hear - that the Democrats need to stop bloodying each other. In a letter announcing his Obama endorsement, Andrew said: "While I was hopeful that a long, contested primary season would invigorate our party, the polls show that the tone and temperature of the race is now hurting us."

Your superdelegate total, according to the AP: Clinton 267, Obama 248.

This week's net total: Obama 12, Clinton 8.

Your superdelegate explainer:

Superdelegates are nearly 800 elected leaders and Democratic Party officials who aren't bound by the outcome of state contests and can cast their ballot for any candidate at the national convention. They are especially valuable in this race since neither Clinton nor Obama can win enough pledged delegates to secure the nomination through state-by-state elections.

Obama now leads in the delegate count overall 1736.5 to 1601.5 for Clinton (a lead of 135). A candidate needs 2,025 delegates to win the nomination. About 230 superdelegates remain undecided, and about 60 more will be selected at state party conventions and meetings throughout the spring.

A Clinton lead in N.C.?

A new InsiderAdvantage poll shows just how much the ground has potentially shifted in the May 6 N.C. primary. But it comes with a caveat.

The poll of 571 likely registered voters has Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama 44-42 percent, with 14 percent undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percent.

Now, the caveat, courtesy of InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “Our polling generally does not indicate the eventual compression (read: underrepresentation) of black voters that Obama usually enjoys just before Election Day. If that happens, my guess is that he will pull this out. However, this poll is clearly an indication of reaction to the latest statements by his former pastor; and it forces Sen. Obama to split resources between Indiana and North Carolina."

(A note: The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder notes - and we confirm - that Obama receives only 65% of the black vote in the sample, far below the numbers he's received in primaries. Also, blacks only make up one-quarter of the survey's repondents; nearly 40 percent of N.C. primary voters are expected to be black. So the IA poll certainly has potential flaws.)

Other polls have Obama with N.C. leads ranging from five points to double digits, including a new Mason Dixon poll this morning that has him leading 49-42, with five percent undecided.

If anything, the InsiderAdvantage poll will likely change the spin you'll hear next Tuesday night. Obama no longer needs a substantial double-digit win to claim victory. A win close to 10 points, and his campaign will present him as a fighter who has overcome a Clinton surge and Jeremiah Wright drag.

In a conference call moments ago, the Clinton campaign pointed to new numbers from Quinnipiac University which showed Clinton outperforming Obama in three battleground states.

The numbers:

Florida: Clinton 49, McCain 41; McCain 44, Obama 43
Ohio: Clinton 48, McCain 38; McCain 43, Obama 42
Pennsylvania: Clinton 51, McCain 37; Obama 47, McCain 38

"It's very hard to think of the electoral map - at least to a Democratic victory - without Ohio and Florida," said spokesman Geoff Garin.

Morning Buzz - The nightmare scenario?

It is inevitable, as the political conversation turns from pledged delegates to superdelegates, that Democrats need to confront what might be the worst of their what-ifs.

Should Hillary Clinton (pictured here with Georgia Rep. John Lewis) be awarded the nomination at the convention, will resentful African-American voters turn away from the party in November - and perhaps beyond? McClatchy national writer David Lightman has been pursuing the possibility this week for a story he's writing today.

It's a fear that's circulating among supers and party officials, and if Clinton has a strong showing on May 6, it will be the next Big Topic. It's also our question of the day.

Certainly, sore losers in June historically come around by November. Clinton's supporters - and others - believe that Democrats will rally behind any nominee when faced with another four years of a Republican president.

But should Clinton get the nomination, this will not be merely a nomination that was won, but one that was taken away, at least to those pointing to pledged delegate and popular vote counts. Lightman tells me the blacks he spoke to were often upset and concerned at the possibility.

Such anger could tap into an historical resentment - one that might linger for more than a single election. Lightman says that Clinton would, of course, make a huge effort as the nominee to reconcile with blacks. Without that vote, she likely can't win in November, and the Democrats would suffer in Congressional races, as well.

Our question: Do you think black voters would turn away from Democrats if Clinton gets the nomination? Should they?

Let us know. Comment here.

The Morning Buzz:

The Observer's Jim Morrill asks and answers - has the Rev. Jeremiah Wright turned some N.C. voters against Obama?

Mary Curtis says politics is a rough game - and Hillary Clinton does politics well.

Politico's Mike Allen and John Harris say Clinton's strategy is ignore the math (for now.)

But about that math, says Politico's Roger Simon - it's not going away.

That gas tax holiday proposal from Clinton and John McCain? Economists say it's a bad idea, the Washington Post reports.

If you want a inside look at the crumbling of the Obama-Wright relationship, Michael Powell and Jodi Kantor of the New York Times provide it here.

Robert Novak says the senator was slow in reacting to Wright.

The Chicago Tribune writes that the Obamas tried to move forward from Wright yesterday - but it was difficult to drag everyone else with them.

It was all about the working families for both campaigns, says the Indianapolis Star's Mary Beth Schneider and Maureen Groppe.

Finally, if you've missed everything in the Democratic race up to this point, Slate covers it all (brilliantly) in this seven-minute video. (Warning, some mild language issues.)