(Updated, 6:55 p.m.) Why John McCain has reason to be optimistic heading into the final weekend of the election:
Pennsylvania: A new survey this morning from respected pollster Rasmussen shows him trailing by just four points. Rasmussen had McCain trailing by seven points five days ago - a steady increase reflected in other polling.
Another Pennsylvania poll from Muhlenburg College out this morning shows Obama leading by eight, but Muhlenburg's is a tracking poll that gives an average of five days of calling. In the past three days, Obama's lead has gone from 13 to 10 to 8, signaling that the margin of the most recent night of polling is significantly less than eight - perhaps right about where Rasmussen has it.
Clearly, the tightening of the race there is reflecting McCain's and Sarah Palin's attentiveness to the state this week. Is it also signaling a surge of undecideds and iffy Obama voters there moving McCain's way?
Whatever the reason, a Pennsylvania victory opens the map up for McCain.
(Update, 6:52 p.m.: Pollster ARG has Obama up six in Pennsylvania in a poll released Saturday afternoon.)
Close battleground races: The latest polls have McCain tied or narrowly trailing in these states - Missouri, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana. If McCain wins those states and Pennsylvania, he doesn't need the western states (Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada) that seem to be slipping away from him.
Yes, winning all six plus Pennsylvania is a tall order, but each by itself is very winnable. Plus, if Iowa is "dead even," as McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said Friday, a win there could give McCain some flexibility.
Why Barack Obama has reason to be optimistic heading into the weekend:
Those same battleground races: Obama needs one - Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Indiana, Virginia or North Carolina. He is leading - narrowly, yes, but leading - in polls in Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. He is even in Missouri and Indiana. One is all he needs if the western states hold for him the way most expect.
Georgia: Early voting concluded yesterday - and no one is quite sure exactly how close the race is heading into election day. Polls this week have McCain leading by 1 to 5 points, but the percentage of blacks voting in early turnout was a stunning 35% - six points higher than the ratio of black registered Georgia voters to overall Georgia RVs. If that number is at 32-33% when the polls close Nov. 4, it's anybody's race.
And Pennsylvania? You can be sure that Obama didn't get a text from campaign manager David Plouffe this morning saying "OMG - PA.!!!" The campaign has been doing its own polling there each day.
And yet, as of this morning, Obama has no events scheduled in the state before election day. His last visit there was four days ago. So Obama either is confident he can hold on in Pennsylvania, or he's deciding that he'll roll the dice on a four-point-or-so lead there and focus his attention on equally close (or closer) races in other states.
Feeling optimistic, anyone? Tell us what you think.
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52 comments:
anyone see zogby's poll from yesterday?? I'm starting to get nervous....
www.zogby.com
In single a single day poll...McCain was UP by one!!!
Anon...I am not surprised! I'm a dem, and there is NO way I could vote for a man who is so inexperienced!
I work for a bank...I've been there for 900 days...there is NO way I feel like I could be PRESIDENT OF THE BANK!
Obama was only in the Senate 143 days before he started his run for President. ARE WE CRAZY???
I for one can see past my party, and CLEARLY see who the most qualified person is...and while I'm sorry he is a Republican, he is getting my vote!
AngryDem
Ask President Kerry how good Zogby is.
mccain/palin - politics of fear: fear of change, fear of others, fear of the future.
Obama has a vision for the future. It's a different world than it was 4 years ago. Vote Obama - the nation is hoping and watching, as is the world. America has a bright future and its name is Obama
Angry Dem:
1) If you are in-fact a Democrat, we are in serious trouble.
2) If you work for a bank, that explains why the banks are tanking.
The best web site for polling is fivethirtyeight.com. They have every poll and statistic. Whenever I get nervous I check that website and it makes me feel better :)
Hi folks,
A commenting reminder: dial it back on the namecalling, please, and keep things honest - no smears/falsehoods/etc.
As always, lively debate encouraged.
Any questions, email me at pstonge@charlotteobserver.com.
Thanks...
To Angrydem - obviously you don't have the background to be president. But not because you've only been there 900 days. I'm sure there are people that have been there 30 years and are still not equipped to do the job. The ability doesn't come from working AT the bank. It comes from education, industry knowledge, leadership ability, an understanding of the changing environment and the ability to adapt the business to that change. (btw -the banking industry may not be a good analogy to use right now - looking at the performance of the bank executives)
Obama is a new generation. McCain is keeping the same. I am ready for a change. OBAMA 2008!!!!!
The people who vote Obama are not voting with facts but rather emotionalism.
I voted for Clinton, and would have voted for hilary but am now voting McCain because we do not need a President who thinks that penalizing success is the way to stimulate the economy.
Additionally, 40% of the population doesnt even pay taxes when it is said and done. Why should I "give up my piece of the pie" to someone who isnt willing to go out and get their own piece. That's just not how America works nor should it work that way.
angry democrat
Experience has less to do with the current situation than the definitive change of direction needed in the politics and governance of this country(and no conseravtives, I am not talking about the pernicious slander that Obama is a secret Marxist and socialist)
As another poster above said it how a person understands the issues and the innate intelligence and stability they bring to the table. Obama has shown his brilliant skills as a competent and effective leader just by how organized and effectively he has run his campaign.
Yes...I work for a bank, and actually THINK about my vote, I just don't follow my party, when they make idiotic decisions.
Trust me...NO fan of republicans, but I am shocked at how people are just following this guy, without even thinking really. Sad example of why I joined the Democratic party to begin with. I do not plan on voting more many republicans, but as for the President, YES, i will cross to the Republican side. I guess I'm an idiot for actually thinking....
We all think, the question is how critically we do it :)
to: angrydemocrat.... So, you're a Democrat who won't vote for Obama because of a lack of experience. One then presumes you're not at all bothered by Sarah Palin's far greater lack of experience (she doesn't even know what the VP does, as she demonstrated the other day when she said he "ran the Senate" - bright girl, there). And you're not bothered by John McCain's age or health issues or worried about him not finishing his term and giving Barbie her Malibu White House. God help us.
Right. You're a Democrat? Kinda' like Joe Leiberman is a Democrat? Sure thing. We all believe you. (Nice try, though.)
What's strange is this is the second mention of the one day Zogby poll I've seen yet I can't find info about it on the internet. Seems like it's pretty newsworthy since it indicates the gap is closing.
Regardless, this is going to come down to the much quieter Republican turnout. They don't wear candidate t-shirts, they don't rally, but they see the Obama supporters streaming to the polls and are quietly doing so themselves in large numbers.
Why should I "give up my piece of the pie" to someone who isnt willing to go out and get their own piece.
Because that is how the tax system works, regardless of who is in charge. McCain is not proposing a flat tax, he is simply trying to extend a 3% cut for the top of the bracket... a cut that will be transferred to the shoulders of the working class at the time when they can least afford it.
Again: McCain's tax principles are NOT different than Obama's. He would simply change the rates at different levels, to benefit the wealthy. But the principles are the same.
The polls are stupid. And people are stupid for believing them.
Of course our politicians depend on us being stupid so we can be more easily manipulated by lies.
Has anyone noticed how often the margin of error is often close to the difference between the
poll results?
What good is a poll that says 45% McCain, 48% Obama with a 3% margin of error?
Couldn't it just as easily be 48% McCain and 45% Obama with pretty much the same margin of error?
A movement of 1% in a poll with a 3% margin of error can just mean the 1% is pure noise and of absolutely no significance.
And keep in mind that the margin of error only measures error from bad randomization of the sample.
Holy crap. That says nothing about any other bias in the poll which would have to be PERFECT to have any meaning at all with those margins of error.
These polls are pretty worthless in my opinion. They usually only sample a few hundred people.
At the very least, they should be done with 1% margin of error at this point in the elections.
The amount of attention given to polls is a further sign that the US populace is probably too poorly educated to be voting.
-anon1
election week manipulation by the right. the war will enrich them and cost a trillion, or 3333 per person, 6666 per person in the labor force (150 million in the us)--how much of that going to military industrialists--the 700 billion, already going to shareholders and execs and vacations, will cost 5000 per working person. the oil companies are making record profits, the military industrialists made a killing in the war, and wall street is walking with your money. gas is cheap this week! enjoy your $20 savings!
ps ya just got thru paying record prices for gas, owe it to yourself to watch the enron film and read the first three paragraphs of this story
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/30/AR2008103004380.html
Reason...
Yes...I would consider the VP position, not QUITE as important as the President. No, I agree that Palin has the same issue, but...I have to vote for one, and at the top of the ticket its McCain for me, thats all. I'm voting almost every other post, democratic.
And honestly, I could care less if you believe me regarding my party or not...I guess I'm not allowed to dissent, lest I be branded a "non-believer". I guess as a Dem, I should just follow, lock-step with my marching orders, regardless of if I think they are right. Yes, there's that little word again...THINK. Oh well...I guess I'm not supposed to do that.
LOL you Democrats crack me up!! AngryDem, don't take it! LOL...its so funny how Democrats are so quick to turn on each other.
AngryDem said that he/she was going to vote for McCain, and you guys go nuts. I think if I read the post right, they said they were going to vote "mostly" Democratic, so whats the big deal?
The Democratic party seems anything but Open Minded, and liberal. If you do not agree 100% with everything the leadership says, prepare to pay!!
The Republican party has a much more broad spectrum of ideology under its umbrella. From the Terminator, to Pat Buchanan, republican views vary greatly. I think it would be the same, were not for the rabid members of the party...ease up, seriously.
Good for you AngryDem...now if we could just get you to switch on a few more votes!
Some think a higher tax rate for those with higher incomes is penalizing success. Some think it is patriotic. Whatever we think of it, if we all paid the same tax rate, the middle class and poor would pay more tax than they do now.
There have been many studies done on a flat tax system. Porn is incorrect in that, the poor would "pay more"...under many flat tax models, the "entry" level at which you begin to pay tax could be set around 26-30k...all families below that, no tax. Using that model, the rate would be set between 17-19%, to achieve the same exact revenues which the treasury brings in currently.
As it stands now, the bottom 1/2 of all income earners in this country, make up less than 1% of all tax revenues. So regarding Porn's comment, I suppose the middle class would pay more, since as it stands now, they pay virtually nothing into the system.
In any event, the more you make, the more you pay, and that is true under a flat tax system. 17% of 750k is more than 17% of 50k...
I guess the goal is to "make" everyone equal, rather than "treat" everyone equally.
Angry Dem - ignore the democratic naysayers. They accuse republicans of being so intolerant, but just look at them. Come away from the dark side. We'll welcome you.
glen,
I read the story at washingtonpost.com. The government keeps getting more depressing.
McCain has reason to be optimistic? In his dreams, maybe.
And the polls, the polls, the polls. One comes out every two hours, I think. One says this, one says that. Polls are fodder for the media, nothing more, nothing less.
Oh yes, The Repubican party is so open to diverse views...just tell that to the more thoughtful conservatives who have rejected the ludicrous choice of Sarah Palin as McCain's VP.
Some of the comments I have read on blogs from their fellow Republicans claim these traitors(actually they had the guts to tell the truth) are now "dead" to the party faithful...the ones who are the mindless base that is.
Yeah... a real big tent and we not not go there about the "others" that the true believers exclude from their "open arms"
Anon1, the sophist:
Gallup does a daily tracking poll with a 2-point margin of error and three different voter models (likely voter, expanded likely voter, and registered voter). It currently shows Obama ahead by 10-11 points. What do you want to bet that Gallup's final (expanded-likely-voter) poll predicts the result within 2 points?
For those of you that state McCain's tax cuts are only for the wealthy....well I never had a poor man offer me a job. Let's get real...these tax breaks create jobs.
Anon 1 claims, without support, that a 48-45 poll result could "just as easily" be 45-48, if the error margin is 3 points. Um, no, it isn't. The likelihood that the "correct" spread is at the outermost edge of the error margin is much less than the likelihood that the "correct" spread is in the middle of the error margin.
Just wait for election day. you cannot trust the polls. They are as good at the people they polled. If they were all dems then , you will have obama winning, and vice versa. The heck with polls.
obama is very inexperienced and that is all you will have. He has no idea how to run a country or anything else.
Kinda strange how "The Ballot" was very impartial and balanced for both sides till the weekend. Then wham. Typical Republican politics for this year. This hsd gone from a very good blo, to a farce. The moderator needs to pack his bags and find another job. Glad I don't live in NC and have to put up with this farce. lol, I know this will not get published, but you get the point. My last visit here. Learn fromthe pro's, you are showing you are a yellow journalist
Obama knows how to manage money in an executive setting. I saw in the New York Times that he opened twice as many field offices while spending half as much as McCain on rent.
I am a white, middle aged, middle class republican. I voted for Doles and Bush twice. I voted for Obama yesterday and was 10 times more excited to do so than any past two vote.
Obama, to me, has the judgment, humility, and inspiring spirit to lead the country through some of the biggest problems it has faced in some time. he represents the very image of america. son of an immigrant and a woman from the midwest. grew up in a broken home, learned about other cultures abroad, raised by his extended family, quite poor. top of his class every step along the way, law school, harvard, lead the law review, taught law, raised a family, instead of going to the law firm of his choice, he has volunteered on boards, worked with catholic, jewish, muslim churches in the communities. how can you not respect his past, his story?
he has been connected to some unsavory characters, yes, but i can make those list for any politician, bush, clinton, obama, mccain, kennedy, reagan, etc.
experience has never determined a good president. lack of it has provided great presidents (Lincoln, FDR, W. Wilson). Judgement and leadership makes a good president. Presidents with some of the most experience had horrible terms in the White House (Nixon, Ford).
beyond the generalities. I, personally, cannot afford healthcare currently because of a genetic illness. McCain has no plan to change that for me, Obama does (I have read both platforms extensively). McCain routinely misses votes on environmental and energy incentives that we need leadership on. When did Drill baby Drill remotely represent McCain's energy policy? I think pandering to the far right has diminished his noble stands on past issues. I like McCain, not as much as Obama, and I like him a lot less since he started campaigning. His stance on abortion, the environment, immigration, and a host of other issues has strayed far from the McCain that I once knew.
not trying to necessarily convince anyone, but these are my thoughts.
I still say 45-48 or 48-45 percent is not great enough to say anything useful in a real survey with a 3% margin of error.
With a 3% margin of error, you could take two polls the same day with the same questions and still get 45% from one and 48% from the other.
What if the "REAL" answer is 46.5%
for both.
With that as your reality, your poll could flip-flop between 45% and 48% every other time with the numbers they poll.
But since we do not know the REAL answer, we have no way of KNOWING ABSOLUTELY WHERE that 48% or 45% result lies in the likely range of results.
It could be in the middle or it could be at an extreme.
It could even be an outlier that would crop up only 5% of the time in a poll with a 95% confidence level.
But there can be enough other things wrong with a poll to make the predicted results stray from reality (in addition to the margin of error due to messed up randomization).
So, I still say most of the polls are junk.
Especially the ones that only survey a few hundred (usually less than 700) people and talk about changes that are less than the margin of error.
-anon1
Anon 1, the sophist:
The point is that probabilities are not equally distributed within the error margin of a poll, as you incorrectly suggested. A 48-45 spread is much more consistent with a 47-46 race than it is with a 45-48 race. It is just plain wrong to assert both conditions are equally likely merely because they are both within the error margin of a poll.
Polls do not claim to measure opinion with ABSOLUTE accuracy. Does any measure meet that test? But you can compare polling results with actual voting results in past elections, and with perfect accuracy. Gallup's track record in past elections is pretty good.
Tracking polls are superior to snapshot polls, both because outliers are self-evident and because repeatedly consistent results reduce the probability that an individual result is wrong. Multiple polls also decrease the probability of error. Your blanket dismissal of scientific polling as "junk" is the kind of anti-scientific superstition that belongs back in the Middle Ages. But, if you are so sure that polls are junk, why not take me up on my Gallup challenge? The unexamined claim is not worth making.
Just so folks understand I'm not just naysaying polls because they aren't giving the answer I want...
Here's two other explanations that may be better than mine:
One on how to not be misled by differences between polls within the margin of error:
http://www.robertniles.com/stats/margin.shtml
And this one about how difficult it is to get ANY kind of decent poll results:
http://www.pollingreport.com/sampling.htm
In summary, don't worry about a few points one way or the other in a poll.
I think it was the other anonymous comment about a zogbys poll that showed McCain up by one point that got me started on this.
That one point probably means less than noise in the data.
-anon1
obama, knows how to manage money? whose money? ours, no way!!!!! anybody can manage someone else's money. good job dems!!!!!
we don't need a pres to manage our money. how about management of our country, which obama has no experience doing. if it is not radical, socialist, communistic in view, obama knows nothing about it.
how about if the dems and obama manage their own money and leave all the repubs alone. That would be great, and the dems can pay for all the freebies. how sad. i bet they would be so excited. who knows, that may be the way it is. boo hoo
get excited, middle class, middle age, as tomorrow, you will not be as excited. Your loss, is everyone's loss if obama wins. thanks , we can blame you!!!!! dems created the financial mess and you just voted to continue the mess. How smart are you????? obviously, you did no research, you just have wishful thinking. wow!!!
GO JOBS! none with obama!!!! just tax increases, so the wealthy or middle class flee the county!!! good job dems, hope you don't need to feed your families!!!!!
too bad the dems did not want freedom for their families. what a shame
If Obama is elected, small business owners and larger companies will take thier business and money elsewhere because they will not allow themselves to be taxed to death. To save our economy and the future of our children, we MUST vote for McCain. I'm not a republican, I'm just a scared middle class mother.
Anon 1 is an expert on noise. I give him that.
Sounds like Zogby and Rasmussen, both incidentally right leaning pollsters are trying to handicap the race. You might as well add the AP and AOL while you are at it. The reality, Barack Obama will win the battleground states and more if the voters turn out, plain and simple. McCain is trying to give the impression that the contest is close...with a little help from his friends. Other than the folks already in the tank, no one is buying.
obama is soooooo empty and fake...he has no experience...except for a style of keeping lemmings (obamanites) around....common people wake up!
If you wish to return to the days and ways of Jimmy Carter, go ahead and vote for Obama.
There is no such thing as a corporate tax and a tax on the wealthy, we all get taxed on those.
Ask yourself, how many times you ever got a paycheck from a poor man?
Another White Middle Class Democrat Mama voting for McCain and proud of it! You won't see a McCain sticker on my van or in my yard because I fear the backlash of the "race card". But I will be casting my vote for McCain as well as all of my Bunko and ballfield Moms! http://moms4mccain.com/
Wise(?)Woman for McCain
Just looks like another divisive and mindless ultra-conservative website that uses the gutter politics of lies and slander.
Right in line with the ludicrous fabrications ans irrationality that comes from the Palin,Bachmann,Hayes and Dole bastions of "enlightened" thought!
Anon 8:42, 8:45, 8:49, 8:51, 8:53,
Please condense all your comments into one post to save space. Nobody's dumb enough to believe you are 5 different people.
(I won't bother to make a comment about a Republican stuffing the ballot box)
The last 3 Repub. administrations with the support of McCain have run up a $10.5 federal debt, plus $40 trillion in additional liabilities, since they've also bankrupted the SS and HI trust funds, spending the $4 trillion in TF surpluses instead on wars, bailouts of WS derivatives marketers, and tax breaks for the rich. Additionally by not paying attention to energy independence, they've run up huge trade deficits, transferred much of wealth overseas, making us all poorer.
doc. www.flcv.com/natdebtS.html
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