The McCain and Obama campaigns held dueling conference calls this morning. There's some, ahem, disagreement about where the race stands at the moment.
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe went first, and he had news: The campaign is going up with ads this weekend in three states: Georgia, North Dakota, and ... Arizona?
Yes, Obama has tightened the race in McCain's home state, and Plouffe said the Obama camp thinks its doing well Arizona's Latino and suburban voters. But advertising there is likely more about the strategy of symbolism - a message to voters that the campaign is so resonant that it's moving into on the opponent's backyard.
Plouffe felt good about the number of ballots already cast in states like Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Nevada. The election, he said, might be nearly half over before Nov 4.
He also disputed a notion from the McCain camp and others this week that undecided voters will move heavily toward the Republican on election day. Plouffe said the campaign's internal numbers show something different - although he didn't get into specifics - and he noted that get-out-the-vote efforts could help bring Obama a different kind of late decider.
The overall tone: cautiously confident.
Not so fast, said McCain campaign director Rick Davis. "We're pretty jazzed up about what we're seeing," he said in a late-morning call.
Davis said McCain has had the best 10 days of polling since the conventions, and that internal polls show even better numbers than what the public is seeing. Exhibit No. 1: Iowa - which the McCain camp has as "dead even," Davis says.
That might explain what we wondered earlier about Obama visiting Iowa today - and Sarah Palin on Monday. (Plouffe, however, said the Obama campaign was strong in Iowa.)
McCain pollster Bill Mcinturff said he expects a "very, very close" election Tuesday, despite what public polls are showing. Mcinturff said those polls are likely miscalculating how many Democrats and Republicans will turn out on Tuesday. While pollsters are showing 8, 12, and 15 percent more Democrats than Republicans, history shows that number to be less than five on election days.
McCain officials also noted that early voting totals favoring Democrats are deceptive, in part because the campaign is actively turning out conservative Democrats to vote. The campaign also is confident about its get-out-the-vote efforts, which have been formidable in past elections.
The overall tone: optimistic.
Tell us what you think.
Friday, October 31, 2008
State of the race - the campaigns speak
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21 comments:
I don't see why it would hurt the McCain campaign to say, "It doesn't look good, but if we have a great turnout, we can win the election." It would be a refreshing break from the political posturing, lies and half-truths.
So, which campaign gets a serious reality check on Nov. 4?
I only hope that people turn out to vote. I'd hate to see Obama supporters get so confident that they let the election slip away.
Go to fivethirtyeight.com for a very thorough statistical analysis
of the polling data. McCain has a good sized hill to cross to catch up with Obama's momentum and gain enough electoral votes to win.
I think most Republican pundits etc. are resigned to the good possiblity that McCain will lose on Nov. 4th
Let's hope it rains on Tuesday. If it does, we'll see which ticket wins the election. It's sad but true.
This is just political spin to keep the conservative base from completely giving up. Internal polls are kinda like Bush investigating himself-a pointless endeavor of partisanship. No way this is close. Obama is going to wipe the floor with McCain, end of story.
I think I need to get me some of what McCain's people are smoking. fivethirtyeight.com has the average of the Iowa polls at Obama by 12 points, with the closest being 8 points.
McCain and his team of lobbyist strategists HAVE to say they they can still win...
What are they going to say? "We are going to lose...but come out and vote anyway?"
It's over.
Here's the Deal. Democrats remember when they were practically handed the 2004 election on a silver platter. Theirs to lose. And they blew it. They picked the wrong guy. Now it's 2008 and again, it should be a slam dunk. But when you consider the enormous advantage Obama enjoys with the media, with the Acorn registrations, and with money, the Democrats are freaking out that the polling numbers should show a bigger spread. "Oh My God, we might blow it again!" So the media and all the kool-aid drinkers are panicked that if they investigate any of the shady relationships, they might upset the applecart. Besides the media is way too busy checking on the cost of Palin's high heels.
The McCain Campaign is putting up a false front. They know it's over...but only if the Obama supporters actually commit themselves to voting.
Mr. Obama will win with 352 electoral votes. You have my personal guarantee.
The contrasts in the two campaign styles could not be more obvious.
With Obama you see a man who comes across as stable,calm,rational, thoughtful,intelligent and talking mostly about solving the issues that are affecting most Americans right now. He is trying to find ways to heal this country of it's divisions and inequities.
The MaCain ticket though is full of erratic behavior anger, irrational and deceitful attacks and vacuous, chest beating platitudes.
Mccain appeals to myopic,uncritical thinking and the lowest common denominator by using unconvincing stage props like his unending and duplicitous "Joe the Plumber" icon to make spurious claims about Obama's so-called "un-American" ideology.
As usual,like with examples from Dole,Bachmann and Hayes; Mcain,Palin and other conservatives have become part of the problem, because they have nothing better to propose than in keeping us divided and angry at each other. They offer almost nothing which serves to elevate the political conversation and to inspire us ALL to listen to our better angels,to work together for the common good.
The destruction of public trust, unity and harmony and America's reputation is the legacy that GW Bush and much of what the conservative movement has left us with over the last few decades.
The liberals have had their impractical ideas also and have made many errors in judgement, but I do not see that liberals made a calculated effort, as have the conservatives, to viciously divide and conquer and inevitably de-construct their own society for the exclusive benefit of mostly self-centered greed or for the irrational demands of extreme religious beliefs.
So, "Anonymous at 1:42", let me get this straight: If it wasn't for the media reporting on the news, people registering to vote, and hundreds of thousands of people donating their money to the Obama campaign, McCain would be winning? You may say Democrats have been drinking the kool-aid. Personally, I'd like to know what you've been smoking. As for panic, I'm with the guy who predicted 352. No worries here.
Obama and is running the oldest propaganda campaign in the world.
Why do you think he is campaigning in AZ? It is to project the image that he is unbeatable and has the whole thing wrapped up. This is classic psychology and (not surprisingly) is a strategy employed frequently by dictators like Mugabe.
Also, why is Obama campaigning in Iowa with a 12 point lead?
This thing is alot closer than the public has been led to believe.
All of you on the right and leaning right- get out there and vote and expose this fraud for what it is. The Obama campaign has created and are living in their own snow globe.
Obama and is running the oldest propaganda campaign in the world.
You are saying Obama controls all polling organizations except those directly tied to the GOP? That he controls all news channels, newspapers, independent watchdogs and pundits?
You are paranoid. There is no comparison between Obama and Mugabe, except in the minds of conspiracy theorist nutcases.
I love these blogs and comments. Now my points of view, lol like they really matter. The McCain supporters keep blasting news media coverage as being unfair. This is a joke. I am open minded and watch CNN, MSNBC and Fox news. We can all agree that MSNBC is pro Obama but does give McCain credit where credit is due, CNN is very well rounded and i see no favortism one way or other. Fox News has the wrong motto, fair and ballanced doesnt even fit them. They go out of way to be Pro McCain. Half of the lies about about Obama come right out of Bil O'Rielly's mouth. So when they say the news is biased against them, I laugh
Hmmm, you never know, it might just rain on obama's big party. He might just be counting his chickens before they hatch. As for the polls, I really don't think that you can believe them at this point. One reported yesterday had about 200 more of one party polled, so who do you think that poll went to? You have to have a good mix in order to have any clue as to who is leading. If you poll only the ones to make the poll relect who you want, then that is what you have. Sorry guys, but you all might be very shocked come election day. Obama as well. Hope so!!!!
well, if you are only polling democrats, then who do you think the polls are in favor of? Can you say obama. What a joke.
That fear that people actually have of obama, just might come to light on election day. Fear drives eveything that we do. In this case, that will be great!!!
For those of us with open minds and that that think rationally,fear is not our prime motivator.
Those who only appeal to our baser instincts, who use lies and distortions to win an election get the vulgar and ignorant reactions they desire also.
If anybody has tried hard to maintain the high road and not appeal to our worse aspects and prejudices, it has been Barack Obama, a man who I am proud(and not fearful)to have voted for.
This is crazy. These blogs, in the last week or so, have become censored and useless. Except for one side that is.
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